Today’s talks between Turkish and Iraqi officials in Ankara have been hailed as “final chance” talks before Turkey launches a military incursion in pursuit of separatist rebel Kurdish camps in Iraq.

Turkey’s patience has run out, say the country's Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and President Abdullah Gul.

In fact, last chance and limited patience have been the key phrases for several weeks, and are likely to continue to be after a visit to Turkey by Condoleezza Rice next week, a regional conference on Iraq after that, and Mr Erdogan's visit to Washington on November 5.

This does not mean that everything is bluff, but all sides are trying to put on as much pressure as possible while squeezing out time to avert a situation that could blow up in somebody’s – if not everybody’s – face.

That includes the Turks, who have been so belligerent in their wish to react to the killing of 30 troops in two weeks by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militants, apparently striking from across the border.

While Washington and Baghdad fear that a Turkish incursion could reduce to chaos the most stable part of Iraq, Ankara knows from experience that a military operation into the border regions of its neighbouring country has little chance of finishing off the PKK – the Turkish Kurdish rebels who began a bloody separatist campaign more than 20 years ago.

Instead, Turkey could find itself in a military quagmire and diplomatic nightmare, chastised by the United States and the European Union, which Ankara seeks to join. Mr Erdogan, who has been brushing off calls for restraint, pointed out that 24 previous operations had come to nothing and promised to act rationally rather than emotionally.

Yet the pressure on the Turkish Government to do something - anything - is high.

The PKK has always been accused of seeking refuge and training in northern Iraq, controlled by Iraqi Kurds, but since the US-led invasion in 2003, the Turkish military has complained that the rebels have benefited from the chaotic situation. And while the group was dormant after the capture of their leader, Abdullah Ocalan, nearly ten years ago, recently the attacks have been more frequent and deadly. The killing of the soldiers proved the tipping point for an already restive public, and sparked street protests calling for a strong military response.

The Turkish people are riding a growing wave of nationalism. In their current mood of alienation, Turks do not need much prompting to dismiss international opinion and bay for blood regardless.

Aware of the urgency of the situation, Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Ali Babacan, reportedly told members of the Iraqi delegation due in Ankara today to come with concrete proposals or not waste their time. What Turkey wants from them would include the dismantling of PKK camps in northern Iraq, the handover of their leaders, the ending of support and the eventual expulsion of the group from Iraqi territory.

But even contemplating such a request cannot come easily for the Iraqis. Iraqi officials, including the President, Jalal Talabani, have said that much of this was not possible. He has denied reports that he may hand over PKK leaders.

There is also the problem of Massoud Barzani, who once vied for northern Iraqi supremacy with Mr Talabani to the extent that he embarked on joint border operations with Turkish troops. Now leader of the Kurdish region with hopes of eventual independence, he is apparently loath to alienate any Kurds. Mr Barzani has been dismissing Turkish claims, rejecting calls to brand the PKK a terrorist group, and threatening to resist any Turkish attempt at an incursion.

Turkey’s Government cannot row back now and keep its popularity. To ever louder threats of action, it has added the prospect of economic sanctions on northern Iraq. Since Sunday, the Turkish military has mounted air strikes and ground operations in northern Iraq after eight soldiers were kidnapped. It insists that this is not the start of an incursion.

Slowly, Washington and Iraq have begun to talk the talk, saying that they appreciate Turkey’s concerns and accept that it has some rights to do something about it. They are promising to crack down on the PKK as never before. Even the Iraqi Kurds are showing their willingness at least to engage by sending a representative to today’s talks.

But Turkey has heard this before. While few people in positions of power in any of the capitals involved want an incursion, someone has to act. Turkey has indicated that it wants to first see the results of Mr Erdogan’s talks with President Bush on November 5, but cannot promise reticence after that.

Until then, a scramble seems to be on to find a solution through which all sides can save face and declare victory, regardless of what the real damage inflicted on the PKK might be.

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