Richard Beeston, Foreign Editor of The Times
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Iraq may turn out to be America’s “good war” while Afghanistan goes “bad”, the Bush Administration official responsible for co-ordinating efforts in Baghdad has told The Times.
For years Iraq appeared to be a country spiralling deeper into violence and anarchy with no end in sight to the war, while Afghanistan boasted a popular president, a stable capital city and an insurgency that was no match for US and Nato forces.
According to David Satterfield, America's Co-ordinator for Iraq, the roles may have now been reversed, with violence dropping markedly in Iraq, the economy improving and the first signs of real political progress between rival sectarian and ethnic groups.
By contrast, violence in Afghanistan is growing, divisions are deepening between key Nato allies with forces on the ground and the Taleban is becoming bolder and more deadly with support from militants across the border in Pakistan.
Mr Satterfield, a career diplomat who served in some of the toughest US missions, such as Beirut in the 1980s, said that today more Iraqi citizens in more areas of Iraq were more secure that at any time since the US invasion in 2003.
"The lowered violence by any metric used, violence against civilians, violence against Iraqi forces, violence against US and Coalition forces . . . the levels are down, they have gone down steadily since January last year," he said.
The situation was not static, he said, but improving steadily. In contrast he said that indications showed Afghanistan heading in the opposite direction.
“I think that in many ways Iraq may be seen to be the good war, the success story with all reservations and cautions that are appropriate. And Afghanistan the much more threatening, bad picture," said Mr Satterfield.
Afghanistan's problems went beyond differences within the ranks of Nato, where countries such as Germany have refused to let their troops take on combat roles, and the lawlessness across the border in Pakistan's tribal areas, where al-Qaeda and other militants are openly helping the Taleban.
"It is the nature of Afghanistan. Afghanistan has many deficits not present in Iraq. Iraq is a wealthy country, it has resources, badly used, but it has resources," he said. It is rich. Iraq, for all its difficulty in unifying politically, has many quasi-democratic, recognisable political forces. Afghanistan has warlords," he said.
In spite of his upbeat message about Iraq, he gave warning that the achievements of the US military "surge", ordered by President Bush, in blunting the insurgency and al-Qaeda's operations were "fragile".
"The security gains achieved, as dramatic as they are, are not irreversible," he said. "They can only be made irrersible, only solidified by an active process of political reconciliation. This is the judgment of our military commanders and our judgment."
He predicted that the country would require assistance from US forces for some time and said that British forces in the south were still needed to play a vital role.
Mr Satterfield added that stability in the country was being threatened by outside forces such as Iran, which continued to send weapons to militias in Iraq; Syria, which allowed foreign fighters to cross the border into Iraq; and the Kurdish rebel group the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), whose guerrilla bases in northern Iraq have been hit repeatedly by the Turkish military.
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The 'good' vs. the 'bad'? Hello ! Save for maybe for WW II, there is no such thing as 'a good war', just ask anyone whom has been forced to fight in one, such as myself. Afghanistan, in the beginning I think, could have been 'justified', had Bush the 'draft-dodger in chief' originally sent to that country ( the Hqs. of both Bin Laden and Al Qaeda) the 160,000 troops he foolishly and for no good nor legal reason sent into Iraq instead. But, what Bush did, was in effect further destabalize the entire Middle East, under his neo-conman crusade to 'git them people who hate our freedoms". Bush and Bushism have been the bane of reasoned thinking for some 7 long years now. Ms.Pelosi is dead wrong when she claims that "impeachement' is off the table. Bush's lying us into war on two failed fronts, is impeachable and should be punished accordingly. When I was in Vietnam in1968, a Democrat had sent me there. When I was still in Vietnam in 1969, a Republican had kept me there!
Dwight Thomas Powers, Long Beach, New York
Yeah, blame President Bush. He was the one who started this whole mess on 911 anyway right. Unlike most if not all of you crazy people I have fought in Iraq and am currently in Afghanistan. These terrorist and terror groups would kill each and every one of you if they had the chance. Even if you are in some neutral European country. Wake up! They hate you because you are you and they will not stop until we kill them. You want to influence change, join the military and stop them. Otherwise keep watching the news and complaining about things that you don't understand.
VG, Kabul,
The speaker has no credibility. All you need to do is read the following statement to realize this is nothing but smoke.
"violence against Iraqi forces, violence against US and Coalition forces . . . the levels are down, they have gone down steadily since January last year"
Is he from Mars? 2007 was the deadliest of the war for all of those mentioned. Yes, it went down substantially after al Sadr stood down his forces and we started arming the forces belonging to the war lords. But the last 3 months has seen a slow reversal with the violence again creaping up.
Lastly, he doesn't mention costs. Costs are spiking because the equipment is worn out and the replacement costs are very high. And that will be the case for years after we replace our footprint in Iraq because it will take years to build the military back up to anything close to where it was in March 2003.
DallasNE, Omaha, NE
This nonsense about Iraq and oil needs to be rebutted. Making war to acquire a commodity you can buy is like burning your house down in order to get charcoal. It don't make good economic sense, let alone the untold misery inflicted (not that murder has ever bothered the Bush family.) No, Bush started this war at the behest of both his Saudi and Israeli employers, who both have their reasons for wanting US troops in the region (you can ignore all that diversionary propaaganda about Arab-Jewish enmity.) One reason is containing a resurgent Iran (that will acquire nukes one way or another) and the other is Bush's lunatic obsession with bringing the Messiah back. Number Three is keeping troops available that wil be dependable whren the inevitable Saudi rebellion begins. The King can't depend on Saudi troops, that's for sure, probably Al Qaeda to a man.
Hardy Campbell, Houston, USA Texas
Perhaps if the war criminal Bush hadn't started the
needless war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan would have been a, "good war".
Bruce L. Northwood, Silver Spring, USA
Erimia Marian-Dragos: if the Iraq war was entirely about oil, why didn't the US invade Alberta instead? If would have been closer (troops could commute), there's more oil and they would have found the populace more hospitable. I was at a Calgary rally on Mar 30, 2003 in support of Canadian help for the US and Britain in the Iraq endeavour and it was generally concurred that after regime change was brought about in Iraq, it was our fondest hope that George would do Canada next.
Warren, calgary, alberta
There is (only relatively) less violence in Iraq today for three reasons.
1/ The country has been entirely ethnically cleansed. Where once different religious groups lived in harmony and commonly intermarried, the US has caused a division on religious lines. People now live in enclaves, having abandoned their homes.
2/ The US is paying at least 85,000 Sunnis $300 a month each to "fight Al Queda" (which never was a large threat there).
3/ Muqtada al-Sadr has declared a ceasefire.
The "Surge" has absolutely nothing to do with it.
J Welch, Victoria, BC, Canada
Of course the war can be won - when all of the "insurgents" have been killed. Along with thousands of innocent Iraqis. Not to speak of hundreds of (mostly young) Americans. Life is cheap when ideology is pursued.
Dennis Allan, Bendigo, Australia
Tom Marshall,
I presume you have extensive experience with international law given your tendency to speak in absolutes.
Erimia,
Probably is about Oil to a degree. Just as important as water and air in the modern age...way of the world
brett rud, chicago, usa
I really believe Iraq will come good in the long run. Political reconciliation : winning hearts and minds is crucial. Can you try and create dialogue with Iran. If USA can get Iran on side then it will be a catalyst for peace. Let`s hope Afghanistan turns out alright as well. The world needs a peaceful, democratic, functioning Afghanistan and not a cesspit for the Taleban and Al Qaeda to fester. Let`s face it : this war against terror truly and simply has got to be won.
Jo Sullivan, Liverpool, Merseyside
the "good war" ???!!!
The invasion and occupation of Iraq was, and is, a war crime. Let's not forget that fact.
Tom Marshall, N Fort Myers, Florida
Ohh .. come on ! i don`t know what do they want . I`m pretty sure that the motiv for this war , is like always OIL .That`s why this war started , and is continuing , and will continue for a long period of time.More and more people will die (civilians and US Forces , plus the terrorists) , only because of our thirst for OIL ! Thank you !
Erimia Marian-Dragos, Tulcea, Romania