Martin Fletcher in Baghdad and Robin Pagnamenta
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Oil production in Iraq is at its highest level since the US-led invasion of 2003, reaching 2.4 million barrels a day, thanks largely to improved security measures in the north.
The country’s Oil Ministry will shortly invite international oil companies to bid for contracts to help Iraq to boost output at its investment-starved “super-giant” oilfields. Production is expected to pass the prewar level of 2.6 million barrels by the end of the year, and Hussain al-Shahristani, the Iraqi Oil Minister, told The Times that he expected production to reach six million barrels a day within four years.
The International Monetary Fund predicts that Iraq’s economy, boosted by rising oil revenues, will grow by more than 7 per cent this year, compared with 1.3 per cent last year.
A new report from the US Inspector-General says that the Iraqi Government will receive a $15 billion (£7.5 billion) windfall to help its reconstruction efforts thanks to soaring oil prices.
Mr al-Shahristani said that the Government would not wait for Iraq’s fractious parliament to approve long-delayed legislation providing a legal framework for foreign investment in the oil industry. The Government is to invite foreign companies to help Iraq to develop new fields.
Jeroen van de Veer, the chief executive of the Anglo-Dutch oil company Shell, confirmed yesterday that it was “very interested” in new opportunities in Iraq, which sits on the world’s third largest proven oil reserves. “We have made various proposals to the Government,” he said.
The company is understood to be interested in a gas field called Akkas, in Anbar province near the border with Syria, to produce supplies for export to Europe. Eastern Anbar was until recently one of the most violent parts of the country, although tribal militias have ensured greater security.
Shell, which had worked in Iraq for decades until the 1970s, is also thought to be interested in building an export terminal in Basra for supercooled, liquefied natural gas for export to other parts of the Middle East. A number of other Western oil companies are interested in opportunities in Iraq. They include Total and the Norwegian company DNO, which has a drilling programme in the Kurdish region of Iraq.
Mr al-Shahristani suggested that the competition would be intense. “Everybody in the world, more than 45 companies, have approached us and shown a very keen interest in working with us — the Chinese, Russians, Indians, Brazilians,” he said.
Reliable economic statistics remain almost impossible to collect in Iraq, but US officials said that the Government had cut inflation to 5.5 per cent from 60 per cent a year ago.
The Iraqi dinar has strengthened against the dollar. Property prices are rising in safer parts of Baghdad. But unemployment remains stubbornly high at 18 per cent, and 40 to 60 per cent of the population are employed for less than 15 hours a week.
Foreign investment remains minimal apart from the $3.75 billion paid by three consortiums last year for mobile telephone licences.
The US military is trying to prime the economy by directing contracts worth more than $100 million a month to Iraqi businesses, generating an estimated 42,000 jobs.
On the streets of Baghdad and other cities it is now possible to see new building projects, bustling markets and other signs of economic regeneration for the first time since the war, but confidence remains fragile.
Jalil Khalid, 39, a store manager in central Baghdad, said that business was gradually improving but added: “Every time there’s any stability and people start coming back another bomb goes off and they vanish again.”

The High Court lifted a restraining order on The Times and other newspapers yesterday that had stopped them reporting allegations that British troops took part in the killing of 22 Iraqis near al-Amarah, southeast Iraq, in May 2004 (Michael Evans writes).
The families of the 22 Iraqis and nine others who were allegedly mistreated during the incident on May 14 are seeking compensation and an independent inquiry through the High Court. The Ministry of Defence has denied that there was any wrongdoing by soldiers and has rejected further allegations that the bodies of the dead Iraqis were mutilated. The MoD successfully applied for an order from the High Court in December stopping the allegations being reported until a decision was taken on whether any soldiers would be prosecuted. Overturning the ban on reporting “in its entirety”, Lord Justice Moses said there was no basis for keeping secret the names of the soldiers’ units. He added that there was “ample material” to support the proceedings being brought into the public domain.
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I can understand the worlds dissatisfaction with the war and I also understand why we are called occupiers.
What I find naive is people like Joe (Flordia) that believe if we leave everyone alone, the world would be fine. The US is no longer the only super power and because we did nothing in the 90's to solidify that unique role, we are now competing with other nations that plan to beat us at our own game. Look at the influence China has in Sudan or Russia in Iran. Everyone is jockeying for a position of control over a commodity that we can not abandon for at least another 20-50 years. That is a long time.
Iraq will only stabilize when its economy gets off the ground, that can be done with our presence or without it, but its safe to say that if we leave someone will step in to reap the huge windfalls from an oil market that is no where near its potential and alot of the hard work is done.
Sadly, it is always about economics and the belief that a strong economy ultimately saves lives
Ian Perry, New York, NY
They will come home in 2009, when Barack takes office, and that is when the violence will drop significantly since they will no longer have an occupation force to fight against and justify their terrorism. The Iraqi government, in whatever form it happens to be in as of January 2009, will completely control Iraq at that point.
There will always be a terrorist threat in the world. The lesson we need to take away from this is that you fight terrorism with special forces, intelligence agencies, and diplomatic efforts. You only attack entire nations in response to a state sponsored attack by that nation, and even then the response should not be orders of magnitude greater at first, unless the initial response does not result in a change of behavior.
This misadventure in Iraq is not likely to pass the historical test as it is applied to wise policy decisions. Vote Barack, and end the insanity.
joe, leesburg, FL
And all those who died? I think America has not seen all the news there is to be heard about this situation which has not been this horrible in this area in thousands of years.
Sue Peterson, Milwaukee, WI, USA
One step at a time, one day at a time. I am not big on the war but I believe in the Iraqi people and its this type of journalism that makes me want to stand up and win this war! We can do it, it is just going to take some time but it will be worth it.
Matt, Costa mesa, California
Good everything is going great! Can my son come home now???
Liz, waverly, Ohio
To Ronnie and Farrukh,
Farrukh says I should move to Iraq. Well, my friend, I never said Iraq was the best country on Earth to call home. I simply said it is getting better. That is a fact that simply cannot be denied. No matter how much you hate Bush or this war, you must acknowledge the facts.
And Ronnie, you are quite humerous. But I said nothing about Pres. Bush. In fact, I can't wait to see him go. This discussion has nothing to do with Bush; it's about the facts on the ground. Iraq's oil revenues are way up, foreign investment is sky-rocketing, the stock market is expanding (and digitalizing) and Iraq's economy is booming. When was the last time France or the UK saw economic growth at 7%?
Haile Mohawe, Cleveland, USA/ OHIO
Sam, Amber, you should listen to Haile of Cleveland OHIO. The strategy of the current American administration and the presence of the American army in Iraq have nothing to do with the oil industry or investments in high-technology weapons. That war was and is and will be about democracy, freedom, rights of men, liberation of women and other moral values the Almighty appointed George Bush to defend and expand on the whole earth. For, as you should remember, the President himself told us that he had got "a call from beyond the stars". And since he no longer drinks, being a reborn Christian, surely it is God himself who wants the American army in Iraq. That is why Iraq is getting better. "I will not refuse the truth to see it."
RONNIE, PARIS, FRANCE
To Haile Mohawe, of Ohio,
Yes, its so much better, safer, cleaner, more stable than under Saddam, may I suggest you move there and share in some of the prosperity.
Farrukh, Woking, UK
Iraq is a prime example that Occupation and slavery exist
Sam, Swansea,
To Amber of London, UK,
It's so sad to see people like you. You just refuse to acknowledge the truth: IRAQ IS GETTING BETTER! I don't like this war either, but I will not refuse the truth to see it.
Haile Mohawe, Cleveland, USA/ OHIO
Yippee! Its all ok now. The project to suck the wealth from this country can begin again.
Amber Richardson, London, UK
<blockquote>reporting allegations that British troops took part in the killing of 22 Iraqis </blockquote>
It's good to see that any good news out of Iraq is countered with the bad. /<em>s</em>
Tom, Dallas, Texas