I think some of it also was that the night before Mashedani had threatened to
dissolve the Parliament. It was all of the normal Iraqi decision making
elements - brinksmanship, 11th hour of 12th hour, beyond 11th hour deals,
emotion, a full range of emotions on display. And all of a sudden, white
smoke comes out of the chimney and not just one law. A lot of people were
saying back-off, just go for the budget. You have got to have the budget.
The budget is crucial because that’s what is going to power this year in
terms of the ministries and the provinces and it does distribute the oil
revenues, which is hugely significant as well. To get the budget and the
amnesty, which perhaps paves or makes possible the return of Tawafuq to
Government, we’ll see, and provincial powers, which now requires a
provincial powers law and that will be the next drama frankly and that will
be very emotional as well.
Q: Given these progresses and the fact that January once again has seen
drop in violence of 60 per cent do you think that the ‘fragile’, ‘tenuous’
nature of the gains that you talked about at the end of 2007 have become
more permanent? Are you feeling more confident?
A: I don’t know that I would say that yet. I think that we have been very
cautious in our assessments and I would continue to be cautious. The gains
such as have been achieved I think do remain tenuous in many places in Iraq,
and they will have to be cemented by further local reconciliation that is
then complimented by true national reconciliation in a variety of different
ways and accommodations.
Q: What do you think is the biggest threat? What keeps you up at night?
A: Well it still is al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda is the enemy that is most intent on
carrying out attacks that are intended to reignite the ethno-sectarian
violence, that are intended to kill the most innocent civilians that they
possibly can, to destroy the most important infrastructure and symbols and
still to bring extremism to large swathes of Iraq instead of what we are
trying to foster, which is an Iraq that is one that is a bit more
representative of the Government, of which is a bit more representative of
its people and responsive to them than Iraqis have been used to for several
decades.
What al-Qaeda has shown itself in recent weeks, again shows why it is the
threat that we are most concerned. What we are seeing in recent weeks is the
recruiting of children, the use of mentally handicapped women, the
employment of suicide vests because suicide cars have been more difficult to
get through checkpoints and barriers and even just to build. The networks
have been hit particularly hard, we have obviously targeted them. There has
been an explicit focus on specific Baghdad neighbourhoods, specific belts
around Baghdad to the South and the North, the dagger that points at the
heart of Baghdad which of course in the Euphrates River Valley. And then up
to Diyala River Valley, Baquba and now we have been up to Muqtadia and now
the area east of Qalas. And up the Tigris River Valley and of course Mosul
getting more attention now as well.
Q And with the women suicide bombers. Is there a concern that we are going
to see more of this?
A: Oh it is a concern. It was a real tribute to the Iraqi security force
member two days ago in Baghdad who very alertly picked up on the erratic
behavior of a woman and picked up that there were wires hanging out and
actually managed to shoot her a couple of times to make sure she fell into a
shop.
Q: You said in an interview last week that foreign fighters had dropped by
50 per cent.
A: You mean the flow of foreign fighters. That has actually been the case for
several months. We saw that first probably in the late fall. That is the
result of a number of factors. One of them is some source countries getting
more serious about making it difficult for military aged males to fly to
Damascus on a one way airline ticket. It’s a result of some source countries
taking action against particular facilitators and individuals intending to
ship large amounts of components for explosives and other devices into Iraq
indirectly. It is a result of us killing the Emir of the foreign fighters,
detaining another key figure, disrupting the foreign facilitation network.
It is a result of Syria taking some actions against some foreign fighter
facilitators although the suicide bombers still appear to be coming through.
Q What about the al-Mehdi Army ceasefire? What signals are you getting that
that will end at the end of the month?
A: We are hopeful that the ceasefire will continue and we think that the logic
is that it should. The reason for the ceasefire was to enable the leadership
of the movement to get a grip on individuals who had tarnished the
reputation of the movement by their actions in Karbala, in assassinating two
southern Governors and police chiefs, kidnapping Government officials and a
journalist in Basra most recently, who was there to meet with the Sadrists
officially. This is a movement that was built on the principles of the
martyr Sadr, Moqtada’s father, and it was all about serving the people not
extorting money from them, carrying out criminal actions against them. I
think that the leadership of the movement is concerned that some of these
individuals have again carried out activities that are clearly blemishes on
the reputation on that movement. As they approach elections and so forth
that is a big concern to them.
