James Hider in Baghdad, Michael Evans, Defence Editor and Richard Beeston, Foreign Editor
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Plans to bring home 1,600 troops from Iraq this spring are in disarray, Ministry of Defence officials said last night.
The admission came as the Iraqi Government’s offensive against Shia militias in Basra appeared to be failing.
The rebels ignored a deadline to disarm and intense fighting in the city raised the possibility that British forces could be asked to re-engage on the front line.
Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, had flown to Saddam Hussein’s former palace in central Basra to take personal control of the offensive, led by 30,000 Iraqi troops backed by paramilitary police.
But reports from the city suggested that the Iraqi forces had failed to make any significant inroads. As the deadline for disarmament passed, Iraqi police were defecting to the militia ranks.
The Iraqi Government’s difficulties leave Britain facing one of its toughest challenges since the invasion five years ago.
MoD officials admitted that they were no longer thinking about cutting troop numbers to 2,500 from the spring, as had been outlined by Gordon Brown in a statement to the Commons last October. “Any plans for a reduction of British troops is off the table for the time being,” a senior Whitehall source said.
Officials insisted that so far British forces were providing support only in the form of air cover and logistics support — including 19 liaison officers in Basra city — but did not rule out sending a small force to help the Iraqis if requested by the authorities in Baghdad.
Mr al-Maliki had hoped to lead his army to victory in Shia militia strongholds in Basra, Iraq’s oil city in the south. Instead, Iraq’s Shia prime minister was left with the prospect of disaster as district after district of his own capital fell to the rival Mahdi Army.
Residents of Basra complained that water and electricity had been turned off in the three main areas besieged by the Iraqi Army. Estimates of the death toll in Basra are as high as 200, with hundreds more wounded.
Under present strategy, the 4,100 British troops still in Iraq are supposed to remain at their base at the airport northwest of Basra and join the Iraqi forces in a security operation only when requested.
No such request has been made and a source in Basra said there was not expected to be any call for help during the present operation.
President Bush praised the high-risk strategies. He said: “Prime Minister Maliki’s bold decision to go after the illegal groups in Basra shows his leadership and his commitment to enforce the law in an evenhanded manner.”
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Sadly, the World is in a huge , festering turmoil with issues of Religion,Race & Cuture all fermenting in a forever damned cauldron & periodically erupting in violence - sometimes short vicious & decisive: sometimes protracted,cruel & never ending...
The World has had eruptions in Kenya, Zimbabwe, Tibet, Burma, Afghanistan, Iraq; various ongoing South American wars; Sri Lanka has a horrid conflict that simmers on...
That we are all heading for very much harder times financially is already apparent... The foundations of a nations economic wellbeing are surely the banking institutions & they arent too stable either with Northern Rock & Bear Stearns...
The most important problem we all as MANKIND have is the rapidly accelerating destruction of the World , our only natural environment...
Its time that all the Religions, Races & Cultures united to fight our greatest & most terrible enemy ... IGNORANCE that wells from within us all in a multitude of ways...
Smell the coffee...
John, Bicester, UK
The British have no role left to play in Iraq. They are defeated militarily and politically in the southern provinces. The rout from Basra palace in September was understandably portrayed as an organised withdrawal by a proud, unbeaten army. However, this illusion does not bear the weight of objective analysis. Following a period of external & internecine tensions early last year, the Mehdi army (JAM) was stood down by Moqtada Al Sadr to consolidate the political integrity & cohesion of the movement, and to minimise the potential impact of Petraus' surge to the north. Meanwhile, the JAM observed events unfolding, waiting for the opportune moment in which to reassert themselves. All the while, they allowed the US to expend energy fighting their Sunni rivals and the British to pretend they had won&withdraw. The Americans will need to reinforce this important supply/exit route before it is too late. The British have already shown themselves incapable. They should evacuate all troops now.
Andy, Dublin, Ireland
Just how incompetent is this government? Surely they must have been informed of plans for this offensive. If so, why the hell were they building up expectations of future troop cuts in advance of knowing whether it would be a success? Fine, if the Iraqi Army does manage to crush the militia and impose order then we can draw down with heads held high. If not then what? Or is it simply the case that we just don't care any more and will withdraw whatever happens. If it's the latter then we might as well leave now.
For what it is worth, I think leaving prematurely would be a disaster. Iraq is complex and difficult but not pre-destined to fail. But if Brown is not prepared to make a full committment to fulfilling this country's responsibilities then he should at least have the integrity to admit it.
Jerry, London,
What an absurd comment Trevor. Why would a government that constantly recieves critisism for the situation in Iraq engineer a plot to drag out their involvment? Surely they are desperate to get shot of the whole mess and tiptoe quietly away?
The sad fact is that they can't pull troops out until the Iraqis can control their own problem. If the British left and Basra collapsed into chaos we would (rightly) get the blame.
John, London,
I love it when the yee-ha war boys start throwing the 'evil' word around, as if militants in Iraq have a lock on being 'bad' and everyone else - including the coordinated thugs of Blackwater, coming to a US city near you next time a 'state of emergency' needs a firm hand to 'restore order' - gets to be 'good' in a real-world version of a child's backyard make-believe, .
Lets play along with the 'evil' theme though. Sure, there are some pretty dodgy characters in Iraq, much like there are in the Sudan, Zimbabwe, the Congo, Myanmar, and the jungles of Columbia. Why don't they get a war of their own ? Probably because there's no perceived threat to the US homeland from the Janjaweed as opposed to any sincere attempt to make the 'world' a safer place, but then how do you make the US safer by allocating billions of dollars that could be spent on domestic security on a war that retains its position after five years as the #1 recruitment coup for militant fundamentalist Islam ?
Steven, London,
We dont even have control of Basra anymore, its a no go zone for british troops. I am not debating the legitimacy of the war, but when your in, you cant pull half your force out when you have zero control and think its a good idea. The americans have proved the only way to win is with a surge, its not massively popular but it works. Keeping the public happy and withdrawing troops just makes life worse for those that are still there.
John, Manchester,
Could have easily been engineered - the British government were luke warm about pulling out anyway.
On another tack the criticism of China's repression in Tibet looks like moral hypocrasy compared to Basra - at least they are not bombing civilians who disagree with them.
Trevor, Thetford,
If we follow back along the reports from women in Iraq of Black Turbaned men striking fear in anyone not complying with Sharia Law. Of a famous Iraqi woman engineer shot dead in the street, then you will understand that the Iraq government had to act sooner or later and it is doing so as an independent nation with its own armed forces in action against their own nations criminals. This is the logical extension of the decision to pull our forces out of the city and allow the Iraqi army to bring order to their streets. We should do everything we can to support this action and remain in Iraq until the nation is secure. Timing is irrelevant, we are not in any danger of failure unless we lose our nerve and walk away. Our soldiers have done an impressive job in training the new Iraqi army and now we should see the end game to its positive conclusion. In that way, we will ensure the ongoing respect of the new Iraqi army and a long term relationship with the new Iraqi nation.
Chris Coles, Medstead, Alton, United Kingdom
Looking on the bright side... at least this means British troops will be staying in Iraq for a while, so the inquiry promised by Gordon Brown will be delayed that much longer. As he has repeatedly said, it will be held "when the time is right". I.e. when he and all the other culprits are safely dead, or otherwise beyond the reach of the law; or when they judge that the evidence has been sufficiently obfuscated by the passage of time.
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
And so the farce goes on.. Don't worry chaps, we'll all be home by Christmas!
Owen, London, UK
Isn't this all looking rather similar to what Saddam Hussein was doing?
Jim Golightly, Prudhoe, England
The mess in Iraq has put the UK Conservative Party into a very difficult position, by throwing two basic principles of Conservatism into conflict with each other: (a) the Atlantic alliance and (b) the rule of law. Whilst it was OK for Tony Blair, the make-it-up-as-you-go-along New Labour Prime Minister, to follow Bush into the illegal war against Iraq (there was no threat to either country on the part of Saddam Hussein, and there was no UN mandate) British Conservatives cannot allow their leadership to make the same dictatorial mistake. The rule of law is the rule of law and it cannot be replaced by spin, which, after all, is simply a form of journalistic war-paint devised to cover up the letter of the law. If the politics of spin is the price we now have to pay for the Atlantic alliance, then we had better dump it.
Edmund Burke, Kingston upon Thames, England
cww in Suffolk makes an interesting point which is rarely discussed in the media. However, his theory that Iran can just walk in and assume a hegemonic position in Iraq is mistaken for two reasons:
1. Iranian and Iraqi Shi'ism haev different theological traditions, and despite the best efforts of the Mullahs in Qom to erase Persian culture in Iran and create a more Muslim Arab identity, they do not exercise moral authority over most Iraqi Shia.
2. The US planned in the first place to promote Iraqi Shi'ism as a poltiical-theological rival to Iranian fundamentalism. Wurmser, Feith, Wolfowitz et al. all thought that this would serve to counter-balance Iranian influence in the region, especially among the Shia of Saudi Arabia.
Iran has influence among some of the Iraqi Shi'ite militias, but most Iraqis are loyal to local leaders. Al-Sadr is just one of the most powerful of these, having inherited the role from his family.
Iranian influence will grow, however.
Dan, London, UK
If British forces have to go back in they should not do it without the Apache helicopter....We paid for 67 of them so lets see them minimising the risk to Britsh soldiers lives..
Crating, Leigh, UK
I agree with Nick, it's inevitable that Iran will end up taking control of Iraq in some form, directly or indirectly. It was for this reason why Bush, Senior didn't kick out Saddam in the last gulf war. Iran probably couldn't believe their luck at the naiveness of the US when they decided to go into Iraq knowing that eventually, with the support of majority Shia people it will come under its control.
cww, suffolk,
Murph
Your view is appealing but it sounds remarkably like the sort of fantasy that was prevalent in the Fuhrerbunker in Berlin in March 1945. The idea that the remaining British squaddies, who haven't been able to establish effective patrols outside the perimeter of the Basra Airbase, are goping to play the part of an "anvil" is a bit fanciful.
Steve Swales, Wakefield, UK
Not just British withdrawal: Basra is the only obvious exit from Iraq for US forces, too. So when it really hits the fan, are we talking Custer's Last Stand?
Andrew Milner, Karuizawa, Japan
I thought it was supposed to be the British presence there that was causing all the trouble? What now? Are the peaceniks going to have to suffer the indignity of acknowledging that there are evil forces at play in Iraq (and some other countries in that regoin)? Or will the cognitive dissonance of the "anything is good that embarasses Bush" group become even more convoluted?
Nick, Rotherham, UK
I think your wrong Wingy of Colorado. Secure Basra, and you've quelled the last militant part of the country, and you force the Iranians involved back across their border. Look for a hammer and anvil move between Brit troops and Americans coming down from the north. Remember..Bush is out in about 8 months. Hes not going to leave this undone.
Murph, Madisonville, USA/KY
think about the consequences brought by the invision of Iraq ,and whoever does t his have to eat its fruit.
Kevin, Beijing, PRC
we have lost the war, what a tragedy, expect a domino effect which could lead to Iran taking over most of Iraq....
nick, london,
For those who remember Vietnam, the situation is beginning to resemble that last great drive of the Vietcong that finally toppled American-supported rule in Saigon. And then there was that unforgettable scene as the last helicopeter hovered over the roof of the American Embassy -- and civilians scrambled unsuccessfully to get up to it.
Surely it is the right time NOW to evacuate all British troops? Since they will eventually be compelled to leave in ignominy anyway, why should MORE British lives be wasted simply to appease the unspeakable Bush and Cheney, and to support the long-dead fiction that the British presence there was anything but a shameful error of judgement on the part of the Blair administration?
But I suppose that Brown will continue to sacrifice soldiers' lives in this most useless and discredited of causes. I suppose we should now all prepare ourselves for another Dunkirk, albeit an airborne one.
David, London,
Well at least VP Cheney didn't say "we've turned the corner" again. Too bad Tony Blair was snookered by the Texas oil man. Sorry to say, expect more deaths in this quagmire as nobody has a solution due to the absence of proper planning and just plain ignorance 5 years ago. More dead soldiers is NOT going to solve the problems.
Wingy, Centennial, CO. USA