Yesterday’s new Iraqi Government might be weak, divided and inexperienced but its very creation represents a momentous shift in the region, with serious implications for countries across the Levant and the Gulf.

Since the followers of Imam Ali, the son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad, split from mainstream Sunni Islam in the 7th century, Shias have, in their own words, become the oppressed and downtrodden of the region. What happened yesterday could signal a change in their fortunes.

Under pressure to reform, Saudi Arabia has already given its large Shia community greater rights than ever before. The same trend is also under way in Bahrain, where democratic reforms are far more advanced. Similar moves are likely for Kuwait’s Shia population. In Lebanon, where the Shias have traditionally been the largest but weakest community, the militant Shia movement Hezbollah has emerged as the most potent political and military organisation in the country.

Not surprisingly, many Arab regimes are fearful of the impact of the Iraqi experiment, in particular concern that emboldened Shias in the Arab world could seek to strengthen ties with Iran, a country ruled by a Shia theocracy committed to exporting its revolution.

King Abdullah of Jordan, whose country does not have any significant Shia population, warned that events in Iraq could produce a “crescent” of Shia influence stretching from Iran, through Iraq to Lebanon in the west and the Gulf states in the south. Even more disturbing for many Sunni Arabs is the evidence that the West, in particular America, is encouraging the Shia renaissance. After two decades of conflict with Shia militants in Iran, Lebanon and the Gulf, Washington is today the major driving force behind the Shia revival.

In Iraq, Shias have only once ruled the country during the Buwaihid dynasty a millennium ago. Since then Sunnis have dominated, thanks in large part to support from the Turks, followed by the British and more recently the Arab states.

Iraq’s new Shia leaders have been quick to reassure Sunnis at home and abroad that they are not planning a Shia revolution and are determined to govern fairly.

Ibrahim Jaafari, the new Iraqi Prime Minister, who heads the Shia religious party Dawa, insisted this week that his government would represent all Iraqis, not just his community. “We suffered from factional oppression (under Saddam) and do not wish to replace it with a new one,” he told Newsweek.

“We insist on forming a multi-community government . . . in a way that will reflect the demographic nature of the population,” he said.

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