Philip Webster, Political Editor, Deborah Haynes in Baghdad and Tim Reid in Washington
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Most of Britain’s troops will be out of Iraq in a year, six years after the American-led invasion, Gordon Brown indicated yesterday.
British Forces will remain at their present strength of 4,100 for the remainder of the year but there will be a “fundamental change of mission” in the first months of 2009.
According to defence and political sources, the numbers will be down to a “few hundreds” by next summer.
This emerged after Mr Brown told MPs that the mission would change “as we make the transition to a long-term bilateral partnership with Iraq, similar to the normal relationships which our military forces have with other important countries in the region”.
Those remarks, strongly welcomed by MPs of all parties, indicate that Mr Brown is hoping that in a year Britain’s role will be run down to the kind of training and advisory arrangement that the country has with places such as Kuwait and Jordan.
The latest British plans were announced a day after Barack Obama, the US Democratic presidential hopeful, said during a visit to Baghdad that Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, had expressed support for a pullout of US troops by 2010.
Unlike Mr Obama, who has set a goal of withdrawing all US combat troops within 16 months of taking office, Mr Brown has said that there should be no artificial timetable, a position also taken by General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq.
But MPs and ministers say that Mr Obama’s backing for a speedy withdrawal has increased the momentum, allowing Mr Brown to sound more optimistic yesterday than before.
In a statement that followed his visit to Iraq at the weekend Mr Brown told MPs: “Just as last year we moved from combat to overwatch, we would expect a further fundamental change of mission in the first months of 2009.”
As progress was made, troop numbers would “continue to reduce”. He said that there had been a “marked improvement” in conditions in Basra, with incidents of indirect fire on British troops down from 200 a month to an average of fewer than five a month since April. The security situation in Basra had been “transformed” since Mr al-Maliki launched Operation Charge of the Knights against the militias in the city last March.
The Basra Development Commission was due to present its plan for economic reconstruction in the autumn, and it was now hoped that local government elections could be held before the end of the year.
Mr Brown acknowledged that the reduction in force levels had not been as rapid as had been previously planned. He said that a decision had been taken to “pause” the drawdown of troops so they could support the Charge of the Knights operation. The focus of the 4,100 troops still in southern Iraq was now on completing the task of training and mentoring the 14th Division of the Iraqi Army in Basra. Basra airport had to be prepared for transfer to Iraqi control, and the Iraqi Navy had to develop the capacity to protect its oil platforms and territorial waters. Britain would also provide support for the provincial elections and help to speed up economic development.
David Cameron praised the “incredible job” carried out in difficult circumstances by British troops, but he said that he would judge the Prime Minister by his action, not his words.
Mr Obama admitted yesterday that he and General Petraeus disagreed over his plan for a timetabled withdrawal of American troops and that if elected he would feel no need to take the general’s advice.
After what observers described as an “animated” conversation between the two in Baghdad on Monday night, Mr Obama told reporters in Jordan: “There is no doubt General Petraeus does not want a timetable. He wants to retain as much flexibility as possible. If I were in his shoes, I’d probably feel the same way. But my job as a potential commander-in-chief extends beyond Iraq.”
General Petraeus, like the White House and John McCain, Mr Obama’s Republican rival, want conditions on the ground to determine the pullout rate.
In Basra people had mixed emotions about the news that more British troops will leave next year. Some wondered why they did not just pack up and pull out now because they considered that they brought little benefit, while others wished that they would stay longer to help to rebuild the city’s shattered infrastructure. Access to water remains poor, and the electricity supply is patchy at best.
Ibrahim Musa, 48, a lawyer, felt that withdrawing was the right move but he hoped that Britain would leave some troops to help with reconstruction projects.
“We will need much support,” he said, fretting that neighbouring countries might try to make trouble. “We need these forces to help to ensure that the suc-cesses achieved by the Iraqi Government at improving security are maintained.”
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