Baghdad is unlikely to sign an agreement with Washington on the future of US forces in Iraq by a critical year-end deadline, according to the Prime Minister of the country’s largely autonomous Kurdish north.

Nechirvan Barzani also told The Times that a conditions-based target contained in a draft version of the status of forces agreement for all US soldiers to exit the country within three years was “unrealistic” given the limited capabilities of the fledgling Iraqi Army. Instead, the Prime Minister, who is No 2 in the Kurdish region after Masoud Barzani, the President, predicted a US military presence of some form until 2020.

Iraq’s Cabinet this week decided to ask the United States for changes to the text to the frustration of the Bush administration. US officials have warned of dire consequences to security in the country if an accord is not reached in time.

Mr Barzani said he thought that the Iraqi announcement was mere posturing by politicians wanting to demonstrate their independence from US influence.

“These people probably think that with slogans they can run a country and I believe this is wrong,” the Prime Minister said. “They want to be given the credit as heroes or considered as heroes.”

He also blamed “external interference”, without naming specific countries. Neighbouring Iran, which is close to the Shia Arab parties that hold the majority in Iraq’s Government, has been a vociferous opponent of the pact.

Asked whether he thought that the accord would be signed by the end of 2008, when a United Nations Security Council mandate authorising the presence of foreign troops in Iraq is due to expire, Mr Barzani said: “I don’t think so. Now they try to make it more complicated so it is not signed.”

Abandoning the year-end deadline would force Iraq to return to the United Nations to ask for an emergency extension of the UN mandate, something that has been rolled over every year since the 2003 invasion and serves as a constant reminder that Iraq has not fully regained its sovereignty.

There are no guarantees, however, that the UN Security Council, which includes countries such as Russia that opposed the war, will approve the extension without requesting some new conditions.

“You have to think about what are the other options available,” said the Prime Minister of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), which controls Iraq’s three northern-most provinces. “What are the alternatives?”

Mr Barzani said that the United States had made more concessions with the Iraq agreement than with many of the other countries with which it has such a military accord, including Japan, Germany and South Korea.

“We at the KRG believe that this is very much in the interests of Iraq. Probably it does not meet all the aspirations and expectations of Iraq, but this is very honourable to Iraq,” he said.

In another twist, there has been speculation that some Iraqi leaders would prefer to wait to sign an accord with the next US administration, rather than seal a deal with the incumbent George Bush, who is hugely unpopular in Iraq.

The Kurdish Prime Minister, however, warned that this was also unwise.

“I don’t believe we Iraqis will be able to have a better deal with the new administration,” he said, speaking from his office in a palatial mansion inside a compound on the outskirts of Irbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdish north.

Most crucially, a timely agreement with the United States was required to ensure that security gains in Iraq are maintained into next year, said Mr Barzani.

“Is Iraq really in a position that it can run its own affairs without the support [of the US]?” he said. “Militarily this is absolutely not true.”

It would take until 2020 before Iraqi forces are up to speed, he predicted. “They said all the coalition will leave Iraq by the end of 2011, I believe that this is a mistake. It is unrealistic. Iraq needs more support.”

The Prime Minister said that responsibility should be given to the Iraqi police and army, but US-led forces should retain some sort of presence for support.

There is no US military presence in the Kurdish north of Iraq, which has enjoyed relative autonomy from Baghdad for almost two decades. It also escaped the sectarian conflict that consumed the rest of the country after the invasion.

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