IN THE anonymity of the internet chat room — one of the few places where Baghdad voters can freely exchange views — Iraq’s much-feared civil war has already broken out.
“Long live the Sunnis. Death to the Shia,” proclaims alilove 19992000. “God damn everyone who chooses to collaborate with the Sunni traitors,” fires back Krar32.
An occasional voice of moderation intervenes. “Shame on you, brothers, we should never be separated. We are all Muslims,” protests King 50052001.
The exchanges, in a chat room called Free Iraq, reveal the hatred in the capital just a week before Iraq’s first free elections in half a century.
And the growing resentment, fuelled by the bombs of Sunni insurgents and the rising political prominence of the longoppressed Shiite majority, have sparked fears that elections supposed to bring the country together could plunge it deeper into conflict.
The stakes could hardly be higher, not only for Iraq but also for America’s mission to spread freedom and democracy around the world.
If the experiment fails — and the world’s most dangerous terrorist groups, backed by tens of thousands of disenfranchised Iraqis, are determined that it will — the country could easily descend into civil war.
In a tape released yesterday Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian terrorist and alQaeda henchman, declared “a bitter war against the principle of democracy and all who seek to enact it”. He wants a Taliban-style regime to rise out of the sectarian conflict that his attacks are designed to stoke.
If the election succeeds, Iraq will have the chance of a fresh start, though a Shia-dominated government would struggle to suppress a raging Sunni insurgency, and other Middle East regimes will face growing pressure to reform.
Either way, this is an election unlike most others. Guerrillas have killed policemen and politicians, bombed mosques and executed election officials in the streets. They have spread thousands of leaflets threatening to kill voters, and to protect the electorate the authorities are virtually shutting down the country next weekend while pouring as many as 300,000 security forces on to the streets.
In Baghdad and other dangerous areas, the insurgents have rendered campaigning impossible except through posters and television. Many candidates have even refused to reveal their identities or the names of their parties.
“Vote 234, 100 per cent Shia, with the Koran as its constitution,” read one white banner in the Sadr City slum of northeast Baghdad. “What’s the use of winning if my life is the price?” complained one unidentified candidate.
Then there is the sheer complexity of the vote. More than 7,400 candidates, mostly former exiles or local leaders with no national standing, are standing for 111 parties and alliances.
In the overwhelmingly Shiite south, the picture is very different. In the city of Hilla, 60 miles south of Baghdad, election officials openly train in “democracy centres” set up by civil rights groups.
Ruaa Mohammed Abbas, a young lawyer, wears a traditional Muslim headscarf but also walks out in a knee-length leather skirt and high-heeled boots. “We are not worried at all; the most important thing is to have the elections,” she told The Times during two days of training to be an impartial election monitor.
In the north, where there are few security concerns, the Kurds are also planning to turn out in large numbers. They hope not only for a big delegation in Iraq’s new parliament, but that they can seize control of the hotly-contested, oil-rich city of Kirkuk where there are simultaneous local elections.
US officials claim that only four of Iraq’s 18 provinces are problematic. Those four, however, include Baghdad and Mosul, Iraq’s third city and a virtual war zone, and contain about half the country’s population. Sunni groups have called for postponement of the polls to try to improve security. But the 60-per cent Shiite majority, poised to taste power for the first time, will brook no delay.
The voters will choose a 275-seat parliament that looks set to be dominated by three large political groupings: the Shiite bloc, with a distinctly Islamic flavour; the Sunni Kurdish lists, expected to take seats left empty by a Sunni Arab boycott; and the broad secular groupings, probably headed by Iyad Allawi, the interim Prime Minister who is tipped to win more than 20 per cent of the house.
John Negroponte, the US ambassador, predicts that the Kurds and sectarian parties will temper the more uncompromising Islamic elements when parliament sets about its main task of drafting a constitution. In any case, the election alliances are expected to dissolve quickly and reform in the jockeying to form a government and appoint a president, who will need backing from a two-thirds majority.
Some unlikely political alliances are expected to emerge. The Communist-led People’s Unity, one of the few groups brave and well-organised enough to stage public rallies, is gaining support, as is the respected Constitutional Monarchy party led by the would-be king, Sharif Ali bin Husseini.
There are also clear battle lines developing. Against the former exiles, with strong links abroad and secure funding, some home-grown political entities are playing the nationalist card, tapping into a resentment among many Iraqis that their leaders “came in on the back of an American tank” and have lost touch with their people.
Western officials still hope that Sunnis may vote. The electoral commission has loosened the rules to allow them to register and vote on the same day, reducing the threat of intimidation, and Sunni parties that have said they will not compete are still officially registered, allowing supporters to vote for them if they wish.
If they do not, the sense of Sunni alienation may entrench the insurgency still further.
Many ordinary Iraqis argue that the Sunni-Shia divide is a Western fabrication and that before the war no one bothered to ask which branch of Islam people belonged to. But the split is real, and the hatred poured out in on-line chat rooms, is feeding it.
MAIN ALLIANCES
United Iraqi Alliance: 225 candidates; relationship with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the influential Shia clergyman
The Iraqi List: 258 candidates; supports Iyad Allawi, the interim Prime Minister. Promotes stronger Armed Forces, law and order. Shia-led, but secular leanings
Iraqis: 80 candidates; supports Ghazi al-Yawer, the interim President. Could team-up with the Iraqi List after elections
Kurdistan Alliance: 165 candidates; promotes Kurdish autonomy. Claims Kirkuk as Kurdish
Union of the People: 275 candidates; supports justice and welfare. Communist and secular. Iraq’s oldest party, persecuted by Saddam Hussein
Alliance of Independent Democrats: 78 candidates; run by returned exiles. Mainly Sunni; secular and liberal
National Democratic Party: 48 candidates; also mainly Sunni, but secular and liberal
Mashaan al-Jebouri Liberation and Unification Gathering list: 37 candidates; Sunni
Iraqi Islamic Party: 275 candidates; most prominent Sunni Arab party. Not running, but will appear on ballot papers
National Democratic Alliance: secular and liberal
Independent Nationalist Cadres and Elites: sympathises with Hojatoleslam Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shia cleric. Support from Baghdad slums
Iraqi Republican Alliance: wealthy, anti-American, Sunni Arab nationalist party. Promotes centralised state
Constitutional Monarchy: run by cousin of last king
Iraqi Hashemite Alliance: monarchist party
Movement of Free Officers and Civilians: based on ideas of Abdul Karim Qasim, ruler of Iraq 1958-63
Religious and ethnic minority lists
POLL POSITION
14.27 million eligible voters in Iraq
1.2-2 million eligible voters outside Iraq
14 Foreign countries staging polls
5,220 polling centres
200,000 Iraqi election officials
87 Iraqi non-governmental organisations to monitor elections
135,000 police
135,000 National Guards
7,471 candidates
111 political lists
