THE video footage undoubtedly shows the remains of a large aircraft — such as a C130 Hercules — that has broken up in mid-air.

That the wreckage is jumbled up across a wide area suggests that the aircraft broke apart with the pieces then drifting to the ground.

If it had crash-landed and caught fire, wreckage would have been in a discernible pattern. If it had nose-dived out of control, there would have been a large impact crater.

The scene has many similarities with the aftermath of the Lockerbie bombing where a Boeing 747 broke up in mid-air.

The first segment of the video on al-Jazeera showing the missile’s launch could have been edited in, but the latter segments include many signs that the wreckage is from a C130. The ladder, floor and bulkhead remains all look as if they come from Hercules.

As no other aircraft of this size or type have been shot down in Iraq, it is very unlikely that the insurgents would have been able to rehash old footage. The terrain and climate also look like central Iraq in January.

To date, the rebels have made use of several types of Soviet-designed shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles, including the SA7, SA14 and SA16, which are also known by their Russian brand names Strella for the SA7 and SA14 and Igla for the SA16s.

The rebels have used these missiles to shoot down dozens of US helicopters since President Bush declared the end of major combat operations on May 1, 2003.

Tim Ripley is Jane’s Defence Weekly special military aviation correspondent

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