SEVERAL key members of the US-led coalition in Iraq are making plans to withdraw or substantially reduce their presence in the country now that democratic elections have taken place.

Even before the results are announced, and in spite of the upsurge in violence, thousands of foreign troops are to leave in the coming weeks and months.

Many of the troops are from European countries, where domestic political pressure for them to come home is strong.

Although the move is causing concern among Iraqi leaders in Baghdad, the trickle could turn into a flood at the end of the year by which time Iraq should have in place a constitution, an elected government and improved security forces. By that time the United Nations mandate for foreign forces in Iraq will also expire.

The latest country to complete its mission is Portugal. Yesterday its 127-strong contingent of national guards returned home two days ahead of schedule. Their hasty repatriation was seen as a political move by the centre-right Government in Lisbon. It faces a snap election on February 20 and is trailing in the polls behind the opposition Socialist Party, which was against the deployment from the outset.

While their departure from the southern city of Nassiriya will have little impact, the planned withdrawal of Ukrainian and Dutch forces and the reduction of the Polish contingent will be more serious. The Ukrainians are due to pull out 1,600 soldiers from the area around the city of Kut. The 1,500 Dutch troops are due to hand over responsibility for the entire southern province of Muthanna to the British.

Even the Americans and British are reducing their presence. About 10 per cent of the US force, some 15,000 troops who were kept in the country for the elections, are going home. Britain, which has about 9,000 troops in Iraq, will pull out several hundred soldiers.

Senior American and British officers said that the main focus for their troops in Iraq would switch from counter- insurgency operations to training the Iraqi security forces. US commanders in Baghdad are handing over areas of the city to the fledgeling Iraqi army, which will have thousands of US military advisers serving alongside them.

British commanders are integrating operations with their Iraqi counterparts and intend to turn over relatively peaceful areas in southern Iraq to newly trained Iraqi forces.

But the reduction of multinational forces and the growing pressure on foreign governments to bring troops home is causing concern among Iraqi leaders, who depend on foreign soldiers to remain in power.

Sheikh Ghazi al-Yawar, the outgoing President, said that it was “complete nonsense to ask the troops to leave in this chaos and this vacuum of power”. Ibrahim Jaafari, leader of the powerful Dawa religious group, said that there could be civil war if US troops left too soon.

President Bush and Tony Blair have insisted that they are committed to keeping troops in Iraq as long as necessary to enable the establishment of stable government and security forces able to maintain law and order.

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