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Poised to win a narrow majority in the 275-seat National Assembly, the Shia List backed by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani faces the difficult task of holding its broad coalition together, and making compromises with the Kurds, Sunnis and secular parties to forge a post-Saddam era.
Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, the coalition’s leader, met allies at his office yesterday to allocate Cabinet posts and sought to assuage Sunni fears of Shia hegemony.
“We believe in the need for participation and will seek harmony among all segments of the Iraqi people,” he said. However, pictures of him crying with his head in his hands after the results highlighted the alliance’s disappointment at failing to secure a larger majority.
Complex election arithmetic that excludes smaller parties to the benefit of larger factions is likely to deliver the Shias about 140 seats — only two more than the 138 they need for a simple majority.
They will be supported by smaller Shia groups poised to win a handful of seats, but have nowhere near the two thirds needed to elect a three-man Presidential Council, or overrule the council’s veto once the assembly’s work begins.
Shia officials indicated that the leading candidate for Prime Minister was Ibrahim al- Jaafari, head of the Dawa Party. Adel al-Mahdi, the Finance Minister, is also in the running.
The jubilant Kurdish Alliance will get about 75 seats — and demand the country’s presidency for Jalal Talabani, its leader, as reward.
Iyad Allawi, the outgoing Prime Minister, mustered 40 seats, a disappointment for his backers in Washington and London. They hoped that the secular Shia and CIA favourite would capitalise on a strongman image to emerge as a compromise leadership candidate, but his Government’s failure to deliver security, jobs, water, electricity and stability weakened him.
However, the White House will be relieved that a clerical-backed alliance of Shia Islamists will not be able to exercise unrestricted power. Scott McClellan, the White House spokesman, said yesterday: “We look forward to working with the new Government and supporting them as they move forward . . . I think Iraqi leaders have shown they are committed to a government that is inclusive and representative.”
The largest Sunni group will be that of Sheikh Ghazi alYawer, the outgoing President, with five seats. This is significant under-representation for the country’s 20 per cent Sunni minority that ran the country under Saddam but fared badly because of violence and a widespread election boycott.
Abdul Karim al-Enizi, the secretary-general of Dawa, hinted that the Shias would do a deal with the Kurds to give them the presidency. The main disputes are likely to be what federal status will be granted to the Kurds, and when 150,000-plus US-led troops should leave Iraq. The other issue will be the role of Islam in the constitution — with Sunnis and secular Iraqis fearing that the Government will be influenced by Iran, its Shia neighbour, and Najaf clerics led by Ayatollah Sistani.
Mohammed Hussain alHakim, a spokesman for the marjaiya (senior clergy) insisted in Najaf that it would not interfere in “political details”. He said: “I want to assure you that the marjaiya does not want to impose its will on all Iraqis.”
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