Richard Beeston: Analysis
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The debate was fierce, at times violent. At one point it looked as though a compromise was impossible. Some MPs threatened a boycott, others were making plans to leave for Mecca on the annual haj pilgrimage as the votes were being counted.
But, after months of debate, the Iraqi Parliament passed what is arguably the most important piece of legislation in its young history. The agreement sets out a timetable for the withdrawal of 150,000 US troops and opens the way for the restoration of Iraq’s full sovereignty, five years after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.
The President-elect, Barack Obama, was already determined to pull out American troops; the real success lies in the ability of Iraq’s fractious Shia, Sunni and Kurdish communities to reach a joint agreement on a hugely controversial issue.
No country enjoys being occupied by foreign forces, particularly after so much death and destruction. Voting to keep Americans, albeit in reduced numbers and in a more restricted role, was a very mature decision by Iraq’s leaders, who understood that the country is still vulnerable and needs the protection of a superpower until it is able to defend itself.
The big winner from the vote is Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, who has grown from a little-known politician into the first real leader in Iraq since Saddam. America also benefits from the deal, which allows it to withdraw with some dignity and the hope that Iraq may yet end up a better place than before.
The big loser is Moqtada al-Sadr, the firebrand Shia leader, whose MPs tried every tactic to block the vote but were ultimately defeated.
Iran also comes away weakened from the vote. It openly campaigned against the agreement and used its considerable influence to lobby Iraqi MPs. Ultimately, it will have to live with a strong American presence on its doorstep for the next three years. By then Iraq should emerge as a stronger and more independent state than anyone could have imagined even a few months ago.
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