However, Iraq was looking ever more isolated diplomatically as al-Qaeda, which kidnapped and killed the Egyptian ambassador-designate earlier this month, said that it had murdered Ali Belaroussi, the head of the Algerian mission, and Izzedine Belkadi, a diplomatic attaché. There were no pictures to support the claim, but al-Qaeda had released footage earlier of the men blindfolded in captivity.

The killing coincided with a visit by Donald Rumsfeld, the American Defence Secretary, who was briefed by General George Casey, the US commander in Iraq, that a big withdrawal could take place within a year if political progress is made.

General Casey said: “If the political process continues to go positively, if the developments with the [Iraqi] security forces continue to go as they are, I do believe we will still be able to make fairly substantial reductions after these elections — in the spring and summer of next year.” It is the first time that a senior US commander has given a clear timeline for a US pull-back.

Ibrahim Jaafari, the interim Prime Minister, also hoped that the US-led coalition forces would speed up training of Iraqi security forces and leave. He said: “The great desire of the Iraqi people is to see the coalition forces be on their way out as they [Iraqi security forces] take more responsibility.” However, the political progress demanded by General Casey as a prerequisite for a coalition withdrawal hinges on the completion of the constitution, beset with problems after a week-long Sunni Arab boycott, and persistent haggling over the role of federalism, the division of oil wealth and the role of Islam.

The latest draft suggests that Islam will play a central role, to the concern of the more sectarian Kurds, who run an autonomous region in the north and want the right to vote on secession from Iraq within eight years. That demand has alarmed Iraq’s neighbours, who have large Kurdish minorities and are wary of calls for Kurdish independence. Concerned that the hard bargaining could cause the lawmakers to miss their August 15 deadline, Mr Rumsfeld urged them to “get on with it”.

If the constitution is com- pleted on time, it will go before a national referendum in October. Al-Qaeda has already warned Sunni voters to boycott the referendum or face attack.

Iraqi commandos said yesterday that they had captured Hamdi Tantawi, an Egyptian alleged to be a close associate of Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s second-incommand, in a raid south of Baghdad.

General Casey’s remarks came as a poll showed that 32 per cent of Americans believe that the US could not win the war in Iraq. Another 21 per cent said that it was possible that the US could win but they did not believe it would. Only 43 per cent were confident of victory.

Many Iraqis worry that a premature US troop reduction would be dangerous while the insurgency rages. Mr Rumsfeld’s visit came as five US soldiers were killed in explosions and seven Iraqi soldiers were shot dead in an attack on a water-treatment plant. Three other Iraqis died and another 37 were wounded when the central bus station was hit by mortar fire.

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