AL-QAEDA has abandoned hope of defeating the US-backed Government in Afghanistan and instead is concentrating on driving American forces from Iraq, even if that means ditching its brutal methods.

According to the Pentagon, the strategy is set out in a 6,000-word letter sent by Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s deputy, to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, head of al-Qaeda in Iraq, in July.

Al-Zawahiri warns al-Zarqawi that his brutal tactics, which include beheading Western hostages, killing hundreds of Shia Muslim civilians and murdering Iraqi officials, could alienate Muslim public opinion. He allegedly recommends shooting, not decapitating, prisoners.

The letter, which the US military claims was intercepted in Iraq, makes clear that al-Qaeda aims to spread jihad to other Arab states and Israel.

Al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian doctor, is al-Qaeda’s ideological head and responsible for its day-to-day operations. In August he claimed responsibility for the July 7 bombings. His letter offers al-Zarqawi advice on tactics and a grand vision for the next stage in the jihad against the West and its Middle Eastern allies.

He predicts victory in Iraq — which he calls the site of “the greatest battle of Islam in this era” — but insists that it is only the first stage of a campaign across the Arab world. He sets out how an Islamic Caliphate must be established in Iraq and then the war taken to neighbouring Syria, from there to Lebanon, then Egypt and finally a battle to destroy Israel.

He considers a clash between Sunni and Shia Islam inevitable but questions the wisdom of bombing Shia targets and reminds al-Zarqawi that half of the battle against America is being fought through the media.

However, beheadings and suicide bomb attacks against Shia targets have continued unabated. This could indicate that al-Qaeda lacks control over al-Zarqawi. Although respected among Islamic militants, al- Zawahiri is a fugitive living on the Afghan-Pakistani border, while bin Laden has not been heard of for nearly a year.

Al-Zawahiri admits that al-Qaeda’s lines of communication and funding have been severly disrupted.

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