There is much less of a gap between US President George W. Bush’s policy and the Iraq Study Group than previously thought.

The study group, according to media reports, envisions US combat brigades will leave Iraq by sometime in 2008. Up to 70,000 US soldiers would then serve mainly as advisors to the Iraqi army.

The funny thing is such plans are not far apart from what is already on the table in Baghdad. According to Shia MP Sami al-Askari, who attended the Bush-Maliki summit in Amman, a joint US-Iraqi security committee has set the timeline of May or June for Iraq to be handed responsibility for all provinces.

Likewise, Iraq’s security establishment, which works closely with the US military, believes that by the end of 2007, the US military will only be needed to provide Iraqi forces’ training, logistical assistance and superior firepower.

Despite all the attention given to the 140,000 US troops now in Iraq, the fact is they already are largely in the background. Currently in Baghdad, 93 percent of daily patrols are carried out by Iraqi troops. For all Mr. Bush’s talk of not blindly withdrawing US soldiers, they do much less than what they did two years ago.

As sectarian violence has flared in Baghdad in the last month, perhaps the most notable trend is that the US military has chosen to largely cede the streets to the Iraqi police and army.

Unfortunately the Iraqi forces have not proven effective. Sunni and Shia armed groups have waged war freely in Baghdad’s mixed western neighborhoods.

While the police has long been considered suspect, eyewitness have also described army units as scared or looking the other way.

In recent days, armed Sunni and Shia groups have bombed and burned homes of people who do not belong to their religious sect. Teenage gunmen who claim membership in an armed group have set up checkpoints in the street, unmolested by Iraqi security forces.

Timelines for Iraq by nature tend to be optimistic. Since 2003, the US administration has trumpeted one drawdown plan after another. Each one has been scotched by violence. In June, the Americans hoped to drawdown to 100,000 US troops by the end of the year. That hasn’t happened. It could very well be the case for future schemes, whether from the Iraqi government, the Iraq Study Group or the White House.

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