The carnage in Baghdad is a warning that Iraq is far from stable as Britain and the United States shift their focus to Afghanistan.

By targeting the Foreign Ministry and the Finance Ministry, the bombers have sent a clear signal that they are able to strike at the heart of the Government.

It is also unlikely to be a coincidence that the well-coordinated wave of bombings took place on the sixth anniversary of a suicide attack on the old United Nations compound in the Iraqi capital. That attack prompted the world body to suspend its operations in the country and signalled a deadly evolution in the insurgency that flared up following the 2003 invasion.

Today’s bloodshed will raise questions about President Obama’s strategy to pull US forces out of Iraqi cities several weeks ago, leaving domestic security forces in control. He aims to withdraw more than 80,000 troops from the country within a year and all US forces by the end of 2011.

It also challenges the wisdom of Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, to order the removal of miles of concrete blast walls this month from the streets of Baghdad, as they had helped to restrict the movement of suicide bombers.

“Today was heavily planned, well planned. It is a warning sign,” an Iraqi source said.

No one has yet claimed responsibility for the bombings, but the tactics are the same as those used by Sunni Islamist militants linked to al-Qaeda, who want to ignite another round of sectarian fighting with Iraq’s Shia majority. Sectarian violence pushed the country to the brink of civil war two years ago.

The scale of the devastation undermines claims by British and US officials of improved security in Iraq following a surge of US forces in 2007.

The United States implemented a strategy of clear-hold-build, which swiftly reduced the number of killings, paving the way for progress on reconstruction, political reconciliation and provincial elections, which took place in February.

Further bombings on this scale, however, would cast doubt on the effectiveness of the counterinsurgency model, which is now being used to tackle the Taleban in Afghanistan, where long-awaited presidential elections are due to be held tomorrow. Renewed violence would also raise serious questions about the ability of the British- and US-trained local security forces to stand on their own – a goal that London and Washington aim to achieve in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

Another trigger for today’s bombings could be attempts by different political parties to form coalitions ahead of a general election in Iraq in January.

Neighbouring countries, such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, will be watching these discussions with interest, with different nations supporting different groupings.

These countries are blamed for supporting elements of the insurgency to further their own ambitions in Iraq, with Iran, for example, said to back Shia militias and Saudi Arabia said to support Sunni groups.

Deborah Haynes is former Iraq Correspondent for The Times

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