Walking down Haifa Street soon after yesterday’s attacks it was clear that the bombers had scored a political bullseye.

Iraqis were blaming politicians for the continuing security lapses and insisting that they would not vote in the coming elections.

Abbas Fadhel said: “Political parties are responsible for this, so why should I vote for one?” Men standing around him nodded: “None of us will vote. The politicians are incompetent.”

This is what the insurgents have been trying to achieve. By bringing devastation to the heart of the government quarter, they have humiliated Nouri al-Maliki, the Prime Minister, who had claimed to have improved security, and undermined the moderate faith Iraqis now have in the institutions of democracy.

The bombers hope to turn send them scurrying back to brutal sectarian militias which could in turn who will be more brutal when it comes to protecting them. In turn, this could ignite a civil war.

Clearly worried, Mr al-Maliki visited the bomb site within hours, but apart from improving security, which takes months or years, there is little he can do.

More pivotal is Ammar al-Hakim, the new leader of the largest Shia party, ISCI. As long as he continues to restrain the Shia community from hitting back at what are almost certainly Sunni insurgents, Iraq will not return to all-out strife. He looks set to do that, rejecting a sectarian interpretation of the attacks, and told The Times: “It is not Sunnis who are killing Shia, but terrorists killing Iraqis.”

Hardly anyone mentioned the Americans. But the more violent Iraq becomes, the harder it will be to justify a full US withdrawal in 2011.

President Obama’s best hope of bring the troops home on schedule in 2011 is that Iraqis will see beyond the insurgents through the strategy of the insurgents and vote in great numbers.

A successful election is a huge threat to al-Qaeda. If a new government is elected and the US withdrawal goes ahead, the rationale for sectarianism is weakened.

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