BRITISH troops could start withdrawing from two Iraqi provinces within weeks, and Iraqi security forces could be in charge of much of the country by the year’s end, Tony Blair agreed with his Iraqi counterpart on a surprise visit to Baghdad yesterday.

Buoyed by the formation of Iraq’s new unity Government over the weekend, senior officials travelling with Mr Blair said that all foreign troops should be out of the country within four years.

Mr Blair is to hold further discussions on withdrawal at a White House summit with President Bush later this week.

Mr Blair flew in to support the new Government as Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, embarked on the daunting task of rescuing the country from spiralling violence and the threat of sectarian partition.

Mr Blair declined to give a precise countdown for the removal of the 7,200-strong British forces in Iraq, saying only that “we want to move as fast as we can” without jeopardising security. But loose timetables were beginning to emerge. In a joint statement the two prime ministers said that “by the end of this year responsibility for much of Iraq’s territorial security should have been transferred to Iraqi control”.

Mr al-Maliki went further. He said that Muthana and Maysan, two of the four British-run provinces in the south, could be handed over to Iraqi forces next month, and by the year’s end only Baghdad and the Sunni insurgent stronghold of Anbar in the west might remain under US control.

British sources agreed that Muthana and Maysan provinces could be transferred this summer, freeing up about 1,500 British troops, but a senior US defence official was more cautious about Mr al-Maliki’s prediction for the rest of the country. He told The Times: “There is no formal agreement on this. This is an aspiration, not a declaration. If everything continues well, maybe it can happen . . . [but] conditions on the ground will be the final determinant.”

The four-year target came from a senior Blair aide. “The aim is to take Iraq to a position where the multinational force is able to withdraw during [the new Government’s] period in office,” he said, though he added that a far smaller number of British forces would remain for training purposes.

Mr Blair used his fifth trip to Iraq since the invasion to topple Saddam Hussein three years ago to hail the formation of a permanent government representing the Shia, Kurdish and Sunni communities.

He admitted that the three-year battle to establish democracy had “been longer and harder than any of us would have wanted it to be”, but continued: “There is now no excuse for people to carry on with terrorism and bloodshed.”

Referring to the multinational force, he said: “It’s the violence that keeps us here. It’s the peace that will let us go. We want to move as fast as we can, but it has to be done in a way to preserve the security of the Iraqi people.” President Bush, speaking in Chicago, hailed the new Government as a “watershed event” and a “victory for the cause of freedom in the Middle East”. He said that “as the new Iraqi Government grows in confidence and capability, America will play an increasingly supporting role”.

The Prime Minister had spent the night in Kuwait and was flown into Baghdad by a Hercules military aircraft and then a Chinook military helicopter that flew low across the city executing evasive manoeuvres. He spent several hours meeting Mr al-Maliki and President Talabani in Baghdad’s heavily fortified green zone. Elsewhere, as if to underscore the challenge facing Mr al-Maliki’s new Government, at least 20 Iraqis were killed in gun and bomb attacks.

The handover process is being masterminded by the Joint Committee to Transfer Security Responsibility on which British, American and Iraqi officials sit. It is working on a “traffic light” system, marking in green those provinces where Iraqi forces are ready to take over and the insurgent threat is low. Its first assessment last month rated none of the 18 provinces green. This month’s assessment, yet to be completed, is believed to have earmarked Muthana and Maysan for possible handover as well as the Kurdish provinces in the north. Muthana, which includes the town of Samawa, is a large area of desert in the west of the British area. Maysan, which includes the town of al-Amarah, is in the northeast of the British sector adjoining the border with Iran.

British officials said that withdrawing from Maysan would be harder because of the border problem, but one added: “We certainly hope at least one of ours is able to transfer during the course of the summer.”

British military and diplomatic sources said that it was far too optimistic to talk of handing over Basra, where most British troops are based and security is deteriorating, in the foreseeable future.

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