Aside from Iraq’s victory over neighbouring Syria in a championship football match on Saturday, there is no other topic of conversation in Baghdad except the debate over who to support in Thursday’s crucial ballot.

Even for the few Iraqis not planning to vote, the election is dominating everyone’s lives. Starting today, the country will have a five-day national holiday. A huge security clampdown will also go into effect with tens of thousands of Iraqi and foreign troops deployed to guard against violence.

Curfews are being extended. Travel between provinces will be halted later in the week. On election day itself, Iraq’s borders will be sealed, the airports closed and all traffic halted to stop the threat of suicide car bombs.

The huge effort is a reflection of the widespread acknowledgement that the stakes for this country could not be greater. The parliamentary elections are meant to usher in a permanent government, bringing to a close the three chaotic interim administrations that have singularly failed to tackle the country’s raging insurgency, its growing sectarian divisions and its chronic economic needs.

This time Iraq’s 15 million eligible voters are being offered a dizzying choice of 7,700 candidates representing nearly 500 parties to elect a parliament of 275 members. In spite of the wide array of hopefuls, four main groups are expected to dominate the future assembly: a Shia Muslim religious coalition; an ethnic Kurdish alliance; a secular nationalist group; and a party representing the disgruntled Sunni Muslim community, which boycotted the country’s first elections in January but is due to vote in large numbers this time.

If a representative coalition, with a two-thirds majority, can form a working government, then there is hope that security will improve, US and British troops will begin to withdraw and the country can begin the huge task of rebuilding its shattered economy. If the leaders fail to reach a deal, after what is expected to be weeks of post-election horse-trading, many fear that Iraq will be torn apart by further sectarian and ethnic violence.

Interviews with a dozen Iraqis on the streets of Baghdad yesterday revealed support for all main parties, as well as some undecided voters.

Adel al-Soudani, a maths teacher, out for a walk with his wife and young son along the banks of the Tigris, said that he would be supporting number 555, the main Shia United Iraqi Alliance , which is likely to win the largest number of seats. “I have decided to vote for 555. It is the best hope for all Iraqis,” he said. Although he assumed his wife Samar would be following his lead, she insisted that she would be voting for Ayad Allawi’s Iraqi National List, a secular party whose members include Shias and Sunnis and some former members of the ousted Baath Party.

While the young couple seemed reconciled to their political differences, the parties themselves have been less understanding. Dozens of complaints about violence and intimidation have been sent to the electoral commission ranging from pulling down rival posters to attacks and murders.

Mr Allawi said at the weekend that 11 of his campaign workers had been killed and that his secular movement was under constant attack by militias controlled by Shia religious parties.

Still nursing a livid bruise on his cheek after he was attacked while campaigning in the Shia holy city of Najaf, he said that the violence of the campaign did not augur well for the future of the country.

“Iraq is at a moment in its history when it can go either way. It can be broken into pieces or it can rise from the ashes and become a dignified, strong, stabilising, peaceful nation that can contribute to the stability of the region and the world,” he told The Times.

“This coming election is the time of reckoning as far as Iraq is concerned. God forbid it will slip into more chaos.

“I hope it will stand on its feet again and become a civilised nation,” he said. “But it could get worse. We have 11 dead, scores in hospitals and the campaign is not over yet.”

KEY PLAYERS

Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim: Iraq’s most powerful politician, heads the Shia Muslim coalition that aims to maintain its dominance of parliament

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani: Iraq’s most powerful Shia cleric, Mr al-Sistani has signalled to his followers to vote for Mr al-Hakim’s Shia-led alliance

Ayad Allawi: Installed by the US as Prime Minister in June 2004. Now heads a coalition of Sunni, Shia and Kurdish moderates aiming to break the religious parties’ hold

Saleh al-Mutlaq: Sunni Arab politician is pushing for a strong Sunni vote to make up for their boycott of January elections, which left them nearly devoid of representation in parliament

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