Richard Beeston, Diplomatic Editor of The Times, explains from Baghdad why Iraqis are enthusiastically embracing their third, and most important, election in a year.

What are Iraqis voting for this time?

These elections represent the end of the process of political transition. Since the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the removal of Saddam Hussein, Iraq has been ruled by a US-led coalition authority, then an appointed Iraqi transitional government and since the January elections an interim government which has drawn up a permanent constitution.

On Thursday, some 15 million Iraqis will be voting for a 275-seat parliament, which in turn will select a president and a permanent government, which will sit for a four-year term in office.

What will this mean for the governing of the country?

In theory the new parliament should accurately represent the political aspirations of the Iraqi people as well as reflect the country's complex sectarian and ethnic mix.

The Shia alliance, which dominates the current assembly, is expected to emerge as the largest party with some 100 seats. It has the overwhelming support of the country's Shia Muslim majority of 60 per cent.

The coalition of the two dominant parties in northern Kurdistan is expected to come second with about 50 seats.

Ayad Allawi, a former prime minister, is tipped to come in third with about 35 seats. His secular party has support from Iraq's urban middle class in cities like Baghdad, Mosul and Basra.

Twafak, a Sunni Muslim alliance, should come in fourth with about 25 seats. The rest of the parliamentary seats will go to smaller parties or individuals.

A new government will need to be able to muster a two thirds majority, which means it will have to include three of the major parties. It is hoped that this will force rival sectarian groups to cooperate.

What has been the attitude of Iraqis to the vote?

I believe the turnout will be very high, possibly 70 to 80 per cent. The newspapers and television channels are full of political advertisements. The streets are covered in election posters.

There is also a fair amount of mud-slinging and dirty tricks in the campaign. In general Iraqis seem well aware of the importance of the vote and are very engaged. I have been out on the streets for the past few days and must have spoken to dozens of voters.

They are well-informed, articulate and far more interested than British or American voters before a general election. They seem to have embraced the concept of democracy very quickly, given that this was a one-party Stalinist state only three years ago.

How could the outcome affect the insurgency and the withdrawal of troops?

There are great hopes that a peaceful election leading to a representative parliament could mean the beginning of the end of the insurgency and the start of the withdrawal of foreign troops from Iraq.

Already British and American officials are openly discussing the possibility of a phased withdrawal to be negotiated with the new government. I would expect a sizeable number of British and American troops to come home in 2006.

The key to this is the participation of the Sunni Muslim community, which represents the hotbed of the insurgency and which boycotted the first elections in January. This time they have said that they will participate and have halted all attacks on polling stations and voters.

I spoke to someone linked to the insurgency today. He told me that the various groups involved in the violence had decided that they needed to participate in the democratic process and that they thought they had more to gain from the ballot box than the bullet. That said, no one expects the violence to cease overnight.

There are also real concerns that election may exacerbate sectarian splits in the country by formalising the Shia, Kurdish and Sunni communities into political groups. If one or more believes that its interests are not being well-served by the new government they may be tempted to use violence to ge their political goals through other means.

Times Recommends

• Zardari still has to tackle tough questions
• Material evidence 'debunks' Turin Shroud
• BBC criticised over Uganda gay execution poll