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As a religious Shia coalition swept the board the newly engaged Sunni leaders issued barely concealed warnings of trouble ahead, prompting fears that insurgents will take it as a signal to renew violence.
Provisional results with more than 90 per cent of votes counted in most provinces show that the religious Shia bloc, the United Iraqi Alliance, won at least 110 seats in the 275-seat Council of Representatives which will govern Iraq for the next four years.
The Kurdish Alliance is a distant second with more than 40 seats, the main Sunni bloc Tawafoq in third place with 35 plus and Ayad Allawi, the secular Shia former prime minister upon whom the hopes of Western governments were pinned, far behind in fourth with 20 seats.
All will see their seats boosted over the coming weeks by complex electoral arithmetic that favours the larger factions, while assuring minority groups of some representation.
Adnan al-Dulaimi, leader of Tawafoq, claimed the election was rigged and demanded the poll be rerun in Baghdad, where the ruling Shia United Iraqi Alliance gained 59 per cent. “Such results are not in the interests of the Iraqi people,” said Mr Dulaimi. “This might lead to disturbing results for harmony all over Iraq.”
His fellow Sunni, Mukhlif al-Ulayan, thundered: “We will stand firm against this conspiracy. We will not allow the formation of a government or national assembly no matter how much it costs.”
It is however, unclear whether the Sunnis intend to unleash violence or are merely manouevring for position in the horse-trading that lies ahead. The Shia faction, whose critics accuse it of being close to Iran, dominates the current Government with 140 seats won in the January election largely boycotted by Sunnis.
The Sunnis hoped to whittle away its power by their participation last week, but the partial results caused dismay. Iraq’s electoral commission conceded there were some irregularities, but said they should not affect the overall result. The final result will not be released until the new year pending investigations. The poor performance of Dr Allawi — a former Baathist Shia whom many hoped would prove a moderating influence on the sectarian groups — at least avoided the virtual oblivion to which Ahmad Chalabi and other minority parties were consigned. Dr Chalabi, a former Pentagon favourite, may secure one or more seats in the assembly, but is unlikely to be a kingmaker.
The result clearly disappointed Western governments.
Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Ambassador who had urged voters to elect unity candidates, conceded last night that they had paid little heed. “It looks as if people have preferred to vote for their ethnic or sectarian identities,” he said.
Remaining upbeat over the turnout, estimated at 68 to 72 per cent, he urged the government to be sensitive about who it appoints as Interior Minister — in charge of the Iraqi police force that Sunnis have accused of operating torture chambers. In what is widely seen as a sideswipe at the incumbent Bayan Jabr, a Shia Islamist, he said: “The selection of the Minister of Interior will be very important. You can’t have someone sectarian, you need to have someone who has the confidence of all communities.”
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