THE Irish and British governments and their agencies could spend more than €110 billion (£75 billion) on infrastructure in the island of Ireland over the next decade, according to Bertie Ahern, with the north’s share put at £16 billion.

This represents the public sector capital element of a Northern Ireland peace dividend, the taoiseach has declared. It does not take account of the vast flow of private capital likely to be triggered by the state investment.

The taoiseach said the figure showed the “extraordinary potential” of the peace process, which would bring more opportunities for trade and development and enhance employment prospects in the north.

Ahern is not expecting an early response from the IRA to Gerry Adams’s call for it to disband. He believes it could be August before the republican movement fully debates the implications of the move.

“If we get the response (from the IRA) it does allow us to unleash a positive force into the peace process again in the autumn,” he said. “Obviously if we don’t get the answer, there is no hope in working to get the trust and confidence — it just would be impossible. So I’m afraid it’s black and white.”

In an interview with The Sunday Times, Ahern was upbeat about the peace process.

“I was more disappointed in the delay in getting an answer back from Gerry (Adams) and Martin (McGuinness) in January than I am now disappointed that we won’t get the IRA’s answer before the election,” he said. “I don’t really care.”

“I hope we get the answer before the end of the summer. I think it will be September before we get back into the engagement.

“My only concern . . . is that nobody talks themselves into a hardline position. Some of that (unionist) talk during the week about being against the d’Hondt system would deeply worry me. We just can’t do that because inclusive politics, as per the Good Friday agreement, can only be enunciated under the d’Hondt system that leads to partnership government.”

Ahern believes that after the general election Adams and McGuinness will try to persuade the IRA to respond to the appeal to disband.

“The real issue now is not when they come back, but that hopefully they’ll come back with the positive moves that bring us to the endgame of the IRA,” the taoiseach said.

“I think people will be responsible throughout the marching season. That will be the next challenge after the election, and then we will put our energy back into trying to build up the peace process.”

Officials explained that the calculation of infrastructure spending of more than €100 billion is based on the 2004 public capital allocation for the republic of €9.2 billion — €5.6 billion from direct exchequer sources and €3.6 billion from other sources, including semi-state big spenders such as the ESB. If that level of spending were maintained for 10 years it would give an investment of €92 billion at today’s prices, one official said.

The figure envisaged for Northern Ireland is almost €24 billion (£16 billion) over 10 years — giving an all-island total of €116 billion.

Ahern points to the strength of the Irish economy and its success in comparison with other EU economies.

“The economy is now looming as such a large issue around Europe,” he said.

The full text of the interview is available at www.timesonline.co.uk/taoiseach

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