Smash hit

So what does the treaty actually do? One of the key reasons we are given for supporting Lisbon is that it will “streamline” the EU. What politicians mean when they talk about “streamlining” the EU is they want to make it easier to pass more laws in Brussels rather than in the Dail and other national parliaments.

The Lisbon treaty does this in two key ways. Firstly, it abolishes more than 60 national vetoes. Ireland will give up its right to veto EU laws on everything from the rights of criminal suspects to aspects of foreign policy. If you don’t like what is proposed then tough, because Ireland won’t be able to say no.

At the same time a new voting system also lowers the threshold for passing laws in the areas where majority votes are taken. The new version of the qualified majority voting (QMV) system is complicated — but one of its main features is to downgrade sharply the influence of small member states.

In the future all countries will find it harder to stop EU laws, but the likes of Ireland lose out the most. According to a study by academics at the London School of Economics, Germany’s power to block EU laws will fall by 4%, while Ireland’s blocking power will be cut by a whopping 40%. This means it will be much harder for Ireland to steer EU rules in the “right” direction.

These changes to the voting system inevitably mean the EU will produce even more laws. The commission’s own figures state that EU regulation costs the European economy €600 billion. That’s equivalent to losing the entire output of a country the size of the Netherlands each year. If we are going to compete effectively with America and China, the last thing European business needs is an EU machine capable of churning out even more red tape.

But it isn’t just about business. If the Lisbon treaty came into force, it would greatly expand the EU’s control over important areas of public policy. For the first time, the EU would begin to make important decisions over issues such as healthcare, transport and sport.

It would also give Europe new powers over sensitive issues such as the length of time dangerous criminals should be locked up and what rights criminal suspects should have when they are being tried.

Under the treaty, the European Court of Justice would effectively become Ireland’s highest criminal court. Unelected EU judges would increasingly begin to determine Irish criminal law, not the Oireachtas.

Another key area where the EU will expand its power is in the military arena, an issue of extreme sensitivity for people across the continent. The EU is already starting to develop into a military alliance. For example, it has already been decided that Irish troops will make up part of a French-led EU force that is being sent to Chad. The Lisbon treaty will push EU defence integration much further, however.

The most important change is in Article 28a which commits EU governments to work together to form “a common Union defence”. It also creates a mutual defence commitment to defend any other member state which is attacked and, perhaps most controversially, will establish the blandly-named “structured co-operation group”. This will be a force of 60,000 EU troops.

Allies of Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, have described this as an “intervention force” and if it is not an EU army, it is certainly a big step in that direction.

Members of the group have to spend 2% of their GDP on defence. For Ireland this would mean an increase of 1%, which would have to be met from higher taxes or lower public spending.

In Britain, making member states spend more on defence is seen as one of the benefits of Lisbon. But it is certainly controversial and voters need to sign up to it with their eyes open.

Some claim that the idea of an EU army is far-fetched, but already a number of EU leaders have made their intentions clear. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has said: “We will have to move closer to establishing a common European army.”

Jose Zapatero, the Spanish prime minister, has said: “Europe must believe that it can be in 20 years the most important world power.”

Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian PM, has called for “a common European army, in tune with the latest diplomacy.” People need to know what they are signing up to here.

The referendum in June will boil down to one simple question: Do you want to give the European Union even more power?

Despite the scaremongering, the reality is that the sky will not fall in if people say no. Rejecting the treaty would mean a chance to stop and reconsider where we want the EU to go. It would make politicians listen, and think about how to make the EU more democratic and more transparent. It would tell politicians not to treat voters with contempt.

A Yes vote, on the other hand, would be irreversible. If you don’t like the new-model EU then there will be no way back. So at the very least, voters need to have a careful look before they leap.

Neil O’Brien is director of Open Europe

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