The results in full | The reaction | Brian Cowen's misery | Brown's headache | Comment: EU here to stay | No means No

The main reason Irish voters rejected the Lisbon Treaty was that they simply did not understand it, according to the first analysis of the country’s referendum result.

In more evidence that the “yes” campaign failed to explain the impact of the treaty, it appears three quarters of voters mistakenly believed that the treaty could easily be renegotiated to give Ireland a better deal. Young voters were against it by a majority of two to one, while those that abstained felt they did not have enough information about its impact.

The “no” campaign achieved great success with the slogan “If you don’t know, vote no”, because not only was the document full of legal jargon, but senior Irish politicians fed the idea that it was incomprehensible. Brian Cowen, the Prime Minister, admitted that he had not read it. Charlie McCreevy, the Irish member of the European Commission, said that people would be “insane” to read it.

There is a growing feeling that European leaders meeting in Brussels tomorrow for their six-monthly summit will want another Irish referendum next year to save the treaty, which they regard as vital for the streamlining of the EU.

The early findings from the EU’s Eurobarometer analysis, to be released later this week, suggest that Irish voters will expect guarantees about the country’s military neutrality and its right to set taxes, and will want to keep Ireland’s commissioner when the EU’s executive body is slimmed down.

Despite the EU’s own research suggesting that the treaty was poorly presented and widely misunderstood, senior European figures remained in denial yesterday.

Hans-Gert Pöttering, president of the European Parliament, said that the “no” votes in Ireland, and in France and the Netherlands on the EU Constitution, were not a result of the widening gap between the EU and the people. “What causes it, I think, is more than anything the referendum procedure,” he said.

“General de Gaulle said that citizens consulted by referendum never respond to the question asked. He was right.

“Of course, we must respect Ireland’s constitutional system, but we must also respect the vote of the 18 countries which have already ratified the treaty. The Irish ‘no’ cannot be the last word.”

A summary of the official analysis seen by The Times showed that women were in the majority of “no” voters and men mostly “yes” voters.

Asked to give one reason for voting “no”, 40 per cent blamed the fact that they did not understand the treaty, 20 per cent said it was to protect Irish identity, 17 per cent that they did not trust politicians, 10 per cent to keep Irish neutrality, 10 per cent to keep the country’s commissioner and 8 per cent to protect the tax system.

Mr Cowen told the Irish Parliament yesterday that the referendum result meant “there is a serious political and legal situation that has to be examined”, and that he did not believe a solution would present itself “this week, next week or the week after”.

With so much at stake, Mr Cowen appears to be taking time in order to let the Irish public absorb the implications of the result, with an eye on a possible repeat referendum on a very similar package to the Lisbon treaty.

In the UK, the House of Lords is expected to complete ratification of the treaty today despite a last-ditch Conservative attempt to delay it until the EU decides whether it can be saved in Ireland.

A poll of 1,000 voters by YouGov found yesterday that 54 per cent of British voters agreed with the statement “the Government should drop the Lisbon treaty and not try to ratify it”, while 14 per cent agreed that “the Government should carry on and ratify the Lisbon treaty in the UK”.

Bill Cash, a Conservative MP, hopes to find out today if he has won permission to proceed at the High Court for a judicial ruling that the Lisbon Treaty is “incapable of ratification” after the Irish vote.

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