The Irish electorate appears destined to vote on the Lisbon treaty again next spring, this time with guarantees from Europe on key issues for the no voters, including keeping the country’s commissioner and protecting its neutrality.

The government may also seek protocols protecting Ireland’s corporate tax rate and the constitutional position on abortion. But it will decide the Irish “red line” issues only after Brian Cowen, the taoiseach, and Micheal Martin, the foreign affairs minister, oversee “the most forensic examination ever” of an Irish referendum result.

Dick Roche, the European affairs minister, yesterday confirmed that Cowen and Martin will lead an analysis of the no vote and promised that the government’s eventual response will respect the outcome of the referendum. Roche said it would not be easy to find a formula to satisfy the no voters. After examining material produced during the campaign, he had found arguments made by Declan Ganley of Libertas that were opposed by other no groups.

Ministers say it is too soon to conclude that a second referendum next year with protocols on key no vote issues is inevitable. But the pressure on Ireland is mounting, particularly from France and Germany.

Axel Poniatowski, chairman of the committee on foreign affairs in the French National Assembly, said yesterday that a second referendum on Lisbon should be held within the next 12 months.

A spring referendum date is favoured by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and is seen by several European leaders as crucial to carrying out an overhaul of the European parliament. If Ireland has not ratified the treaty well before the next scheduled European elections in June 2009, the number of seats in the parliament will not be reduced from 785 to 750 and it will not get enhanced powers of control over the European commission.

The Irish government has to decide its move before the next European council meeting on October 15. Other European governments have signalled that a return to 27 commissioners would be seriously considered in the context of another referendum. Under the Nice treaty, the commission is due to be downsized to 18 members next year, but the option to increase that number back to 27 is enshrined in Lisbon. The impending loss of Ireland’s commissioner for five years out of 15 was a key vote-winner for the no side.

A 27-member commission would raise the possibility that bigger countries could command “senior” commission posts while smaller countries with less political clout would get more “junior” roles.

Fine Gael agrees that the Lisbon treaty can be salvaged as long as Ireland can secure the protocols needed to reassure voters on the four key issues of commissioner, taxation, neutrality and abortion.

Lucinda Creighton, a Fine Gael TD, said: “I would have reservations about the timing of a spring referendum. It is very soon but we will have to look at the options. Everybody seems agreed on the key concerns to voters during the election campaign, but a mistrust in politicians generally was a significant underlying issue in the no vote. That will not be addressed if we plough into a second referendum without a long period of reflection, with politicians taking the views of the people into account.”

The Oireachtas will play a central role in the analysis process.

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