A second Irish vote on the Lisbon Treaty would be defeated by 62% to 38% according to a Red C poll carried out in the wake of French president Nicolas Sarkozy’s flying visit to Ireland last Monday.

The findings show that opposition to the Lisbon Treaty has strengthened since the referendum on June 12 when the No vote was carried by 53.4% to 46.6%. When the 16% of “don’t knows” are included, the poll shows the No side holding a 52% to 32% lead over the yes side.

A separate poll released last week from Behaviour & Attitudes carried out between June 13 and June 24 revealed that 54% of people were happy with the No vote, including 10% of those who voted Yes.

According to Red C, some 69% of Labour party supporters would vote No in a second referendum. This increase on the 55% of Labour supporters who rejected Lisbon in June likely reflects the hard line adopted by Eamon Gilmore, the Labour leader, since the referendum.

The number of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael supporters who would vote No are running at 42% and 52% respectively, broadly the same as the June referendum outcome.

The Red C poll, commissioned by Open Europe, a think tank which opposes the Lisbon treaty, questioned 1,006 adults between July 21 and 23.

Even though no decision has been taken on a second referendum the Red C poll contains a warning for Brian Cowen. It shows that 43% of Fianna Fail voters would be less likely to vote for the party in the next general election if he puts Lisbon to the vote again.

The poll also shows that more than 70% of people are opposed to the government holding a second referendum.Asked whether they agreed with the statement: “The Irish government should do as the French president has reportedly said and organise a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty,”, just 24% of those polled said they agreed compared to 71% who disagreed and 5% who said they didn’t know.

According to deputies of the UMP party, Sarkozy stated at a private meeting that “the Irish will have to vote again.” Sarkozy last week denied saying this and claimed he was misquoted.

Patricia McKenna, a Green party member who campaigned for a No vote, said including Sarkozy in the statement on holding a second referendum made it a “leading” question. “I think the way it is phrased caused a higher reaction because people were annoyed at Sarkozy and the impression of outside of interference,” said McKenna.

“Having said that there is an impression that the government are going to force another referendum and the majority of people clearly do not want to vote again.”

Dick Roche, minister of state for Europe, said the government would commission its own polls and research. Until this analysis was completed in September it was premature to conclude Ireland would have to vote again on Lisbon, he said.

“There is absolutely no point in people jumping to conclusions that we are going to need a referendum or that we have to change this or that,” said Roche. The government is expected to offer solutions to the political impasse at an EU summit beginning on October 15 in Brussels.

McKenna said she was concerned that the government was using public funds for research which would feed in to a “marketing strategy” to “resell the treaty and to get people to change their minds”.

Neil O’Brien, director of Open Europe, said its polls showed Irish people felt they were being bullied by Europe’s political class. “By appearing to bully the voters, EU politicians are actually driving lots more people into the No camp,” O’Brien said.

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