If Ciaran Cannon plays the church organ with the Kiltullagh choir in Galway today, expect a rousing rendition of Abide with Me. Last week the darkness deepened around Cannon’s Progressive Democrats as speculation grew that one of his most loyal helpers was set to “flee”.

After side-stepping questions about his future all week, Noel Grealish, the Galway West TD, finally moved to quash rumours of his defection to Fianna Fail on Friday, saying he remained an “active member” of the PDs and would discuss his future only with other party members. But as public pronouncements of loyalty go, Grealish’s demonstration of allegiance was about as convincing as Cristiano Ronaldo kissing the crest of his Manchester United jersey.

Grealish will have to give his neophyte leader a much stronger vote of confidence this week when the PDs are scheduled to meet. The very fact that a 43-year-old director of a glazing factory in Galway now holds the fate of the party in his grasp is proof of how far the PDs’ stock has fallen in just over a year.

Grealish is a PD veteran, a member since the second public meeting of the party — at LeisureLand in Galway in January 1986. But his star has never burned as brightly as other former Dail colleagues.

Ever since its foundation, the PDs have made a habit of dramatic departures, from Bobby Molloy in 2002 to Liz O’Donnell, Tom Parlon and Michael McDowell after the last election. But Grealish’s, the thousandth cut, could finally lead to death.

He first squeezed into the Dail in 2002 on the PD ticket following Molloy’s resignation after it was found he made representations on behalf of a rapist. Grealish, who had run the shortest election campaign of any candidate that year, was said to be shocked by his election on the fifth count.

If he does abandon ship now, the old joke about PD standing for Progressive Democrat (singular) will become a reality, with sole TD Mary Harney as the punchline. Grealish is said to be politically close to Harney and was initially reluctant to quit the party because of the implications for the health minister. Party sources say Grealish had promised Cannon that he would stay on until at least the local and European elections next year.

But with Cannon’s lacklustre leadership denting confidence in the party’s ability to reverse its fortunes next summer, and an attractive suitor in Fianna Fail in the wings, nine months became too long for Grealish to wait.

Although the TD’s support for the new leader was crucial in Cannon’s coronation in April, sources say Grealish initially advised him not to run. “He wasn’t enthusiastic about it at first but once Ciaran had declared, he got the party in Galway behind him,” one source said.

Such qualified support was evident again on Friday, when Cannon opened a newspaper just after midnight to discover a report suggesting that Grealish had already effectively tendered his resignation. “Speculative” and “inaccurate”, Grealish later said in a statement, but it now seems a question of when, rather than if.

Senator Fiona O’Malley, daughter of Des O’Malley, the party’s founder, said last week that Grealish should “make up his mind now and be done with it . . . let us move on”. But move on to where? Given the choice by former leader McDowell of being “radical or redundant”, the party seems to be choosing the latter.

The obituary of the PDs has been written many times before, but this time it may be published. “The party needs a morale boost before June but it’s difficult to see where it’s going to come from,” one member admitted. “Who will motivate the grassroots to get out canvassing?”

Times Recommends

• A doctor, a daughter and a man called Johnny
• Mona Lisa's smile may belie ill health
• ‘Parasite economy’ lies behind Greek tragedy