THE International Monitoring Commission, the body that monitors the paramilitary ceasefires, is expected to say in a report due within two weeks that the IRA carried out the Northern Bank raid and to recommend sanctions against Sinn Fein.

The IMC has the power to recommend Sinn Fein’s suspension from a power sharing executive for up to a year. But a six-month suspension is one of the main options being considered by the commission, which met in Belfast two weeks ago.

If Sinn Fein is suspended, some British government officials think that there is the potential to free up the political process by allowing other parties to form an executive without republican involvement. This would require the support of the Irish government and the SDLP, which has not been forthcoming so far.

Sinn Fein could be readmitted after six months if the IMC judged that paramilitary and criminal activity had ceased, or it could be suspended for another six months. Although no decision will be taken until next week, this is one option being considered by the IMC.

This move would require the agreement of the SDLP to participate in the executive without Sinn Fein, something that has not so far been established. It would also require the active support of the Irish government. Such measures would be meaningless if no actual steps were taken by the other parties to share power.

The IMC is not officially due to issue another report until April, but it intends to bring that date forward in response to the crisis caused by the robbery. It did this following the IRA abduction of Bobby Tohill, a republican dissident.

The IMC will meet Bertie Ahern in Dublin this week for talks assessing the intelligence on the Northern Bank raid. Joe Brosnan, a former Irish civil servant, is an IMC member close to Irish government thinking, and he will want to gauge opinion in Dublin.

On Tuesday, the intelligence will again be assessed by Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern when the two leaders meet in Downing Street. They will be briefed by Hugh Orde, the PSNI chief constable, and Noel Conroy, the Garda commissioner.

Orde has already passed on the names of those he believes planned and carried out the robbery to the British government. The PSNI has a list of suspects and will carry our further searches and arrests in the near future. “It will happen when Andy Sproule, the senior investigating officer, judges the time to be right,” a senior British source said.

Short of suspending Sinn Fein from a power-sharing executive, there are few effective sanctions which can be applied against the party. The loss of Westminster allowances for its MPs is a possibility, but this is not regarded as an effective measure to take against a party that is believed to have profited from a robbery and ongoing criminal activities.

Suspending Sinn Fein from talking to the British and Irish governments is regarded as a poor option because it would close off the governments’ access to republicans and set back the chances of a resolution.

If power sharing cannot be restored, the Irish government is considering re-establishing the Forum for Peace and Reconciliation as a talking shop for Northern parties. The British government would also look at some way of making direct rule ministers more accountable to Northern Ireland politicians. Both governments would increase the role of cross-border bodies, which have been in “maintenance mode” since the suspension of the executive.

Times Recommends

• Mandela’s tribe threatens President Zuma
• The French empire strikes back
• Wife of cheating governor exacts a political revenge