THE IRA has already begun to move its weapons to central dumps in preparation for complete decommissioning within two to three weeks, according to senior British security sources.

“There has been significant precursor activity which leads us to believe that they are preparing something big on the decommissioning front,” a source said.

There is caution over whether all IRA weapons will be decommissioned, however, and whether they can ever be recovered by the IRA.

Senior police sources say there is no evidence of IRA targeting, intelligence gathering, recruitment or training since the organisation’s statement on July 28, when it told units to dump arms. Because there have been similar lulls in activity in the past, police are continuing to monitor the situation.

They have received reports of weapons being moved from Northern Ireland to the republic, the opposite of what happened during the IRA’s terrorism campaign. This is being taken as an indication that the weapons are being moved to central dumps in preparation for disposal.

The method of putting the weapons “beyond use” is expected to consist of encasing them in quick-drying concrete as they lie in the underground bunkers. It is not clear whether the bunkers will be sealed with concrete, which would allow them to be dug up again, or whether concrete and corrosive material will be poured directly over the weapons.

Before this happens the members of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning will be allowed to inspect the IRA’s armoury to verify that the weapons are in working order and to make an inventory. The inspection will be carried out by John de Chastelain, a retired Canadian general, Andrew Sens, a retired American diplomat. and Tauno Nieminen, a Finnish brigadier.

De Chastelain and Sens met an IRA representative last month and it was decided that the operation would be on such a scale that Nieminen’s assistance would be required. Nieminen, who had previously resigned from the commission, has now been recalled. Two clergy, one Catholic and one Protestant, will also witness the process.

Despite saying that they have little confidence in decommissioning, the Democratic Unionist party has been pressing for its nominee, the Rev David McGaughey, to be the Protestant witness. A former Presbyterian moderator, McGaughey is noted for his hardline views and refuses to attend ecumenical services that include Catholic priests.

“If they are serious about building confidence in the unionist community with this gesture then they will take our nominee instead of one of their own,” a DUP source said.

There is speculation that the Catholic cleric will be Father Alec Reid who helped to broker the IRA ceasefire.

The DUP had initially asked for a complete photographic record to be kept of the decommissioning process, but the IRA has not agreed to this. Without visual proof, a lot will hinge on what de Chastelain and the clerical witnesses are allowed to say about the process afterwards.

Under the terms of his mandate, de Chastelain can be obliged to keep the details private until all weapons, loyalist as well as republican, have been put beyond use. After its last act of decommissioning in October 2003, the IRA held him to this obligation, forbidding him to give details.

The result was that the gesture did not have the intended political impact. David Trimble, the Ulster Unionist leader, refused to enter government with Sinn Fein without further details being given. The DUP has indicated that in the absence of transparency it will take at least two years of IRA inactivity before it considers sharing power with Sinn Fein.

After the decommissioning acts, attention will switch to the October report of the Independent Monitoring Commission, which monitors para-military ceasefires. If it finds that the IRA has been inactive, and if it repeats this finding in its next report in January 2006, there will be intense pressure on the DUP to move into negotiations with Sinn Fein.

Times Recommends

• A track to Shangri-La: Bhutan gets first rail link
• Avatar takings hit $600m in ten days
• Bomb disposal squad is Times’s Team of the Year