Smash hit

()To some of those present, the INLA representative sounded more like the Nobel-prize winning Peace People than a member of what was once considered the most volatile terrorist group in Ireland. Yet nobody disagreed with him, although a few Real IRA supporters were no doubt reflecting on the planned bomb blitz for October and November.

Even they would have agreed that removing the British was beyond them. All they could hope to do was derail devolution, perhaps by unsettling Ian Paisley enough to make the DUP leader abandon plans to enter government with Sinn Fein.

For the Continuity IRA, a tiny purist group formed in 1986 that does not attend such meetings, violence needs no justification. The use of force is a duty handed down from one generation to the next until the day of British withdrawal. It will co-operate with the Real IRA whenever necessary.

Security forces were aware of dissident plans. As early as July, the PSNI warned of an autumn offensive and police have been bearing down on the Real and Continuity IRA ever since.

Last week at a meeting of the policing board, Orde described the dissident organisations as “disparate and desperate”.

“They have little credibility,” he insisted. “These are people who just cannot cope with the new order, so they are trying to disrupt progress at a political level.”

Alex Attwood, an SDLP representative on the board, said: “We were told that it was hard to know which dissident group was behind attacks because one group had claimed actions of the other. The membership between them was fluid and they continued to have a concern that they could draw in recruits.”

In fact, the need to recruit is a weakness for dissidents, allowing both the Provisional IRA and the police to infiltrate. Each time they try to exploit disillusionment with the IRA, they open themselves to infiltrators. IRA decommissioning of arms, which led to a split in South Derry, provided the security forces with yet another opportunity to move their agents out of the Provos and into dissident groups.

The result is that whenever more than a few people are involved in an attack, it is almost inevitably compromised. This makes it difficult for the terrorists to use large bombs.

To make a car bomb using current dissident technology, fertiliser has to be bought in quantity, usually in the republic where there is a higher concentration of nitrate. It must be ground down and the explosives used within days. A similar level of planning is needed for any attacks more complicated than the planting of incendiaries.

This widens the circle of knowledge within the terrorist groups, and arrests follow almost inevitably, such as in Wexford or Lurgan earlier this year.

Another weakness is that few potential recruits believe the dissident groups have what it takes to succeed where the Provisional IRA failed after 30 years of trying.

That, a PSNI officer warned, “doesn’t mean that they can’t kill again or that we can be blasé. They require constant containment because the initiative is always with them. They chose where to strike and it is not that hard to murder someone if you are not too particular who it is”.

Comparing the two main groups, a garda officer said: “The Real IRA always poses the biggest threat but either group could set off a device. We’re working hard at the moment to make sure it doesn’t happen. Look at the number of people that have been caught and charged. If they hadn’t been, where would they be now?”

Factions and splinter groups

Security forces believe that none of the dissident republican groups has more than 150 members and active supporters, and that recruitment drives allow both the security forces and Provisional IRA to infiltrate them.

Each organisation has a stable leadership, but membership is fluid, with militants floating from one group to another in search of arms. The Real and Continuity IRA have worked together to acquire weapons from America and the Balkans, and sometimes claim each other’s actions to confuse the security forces.

CONTINUITY IRA: founded in October 1986 by traditionalists unhappy with Sinn Fein’s decision to take seats in the Dail. Outside Northern Ireland its main area of strength is Munster. The Independent Monitoring Commission(IMC) judges it “an active and dangerous threat, but not a very widespread one”.

REAL IRA: founded by Provisional bomb-making experts in 1998 in protest at the Good Friday agreement, its first leader was a former “quartermaster general” in the IRA. Responsible for the August 1998 Omagh bombing. Now split into two factions, both calling themselves RIRA.

INLA: splintered from the Official IRA in 1974 and has had many splits and feuds since. It has killed well over a hundred people, but is now committed to a “no first strike” policy. Contains several experienced gunmen that other groups seek to recruit.

SOUTH DERRY IRA: in August this year about 40 members and supporters left the IRA in protest at proposals by Sinn Fein to support the police. No successful attacks so far, but the group includes several experienced terrorists.

Additional reporting: Enda Leahy

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