Now that we’ve had the starter, our appetite has been whetted for the main course. Hungry political diners may have to contend with that rumbling sound in their bellies for a bit longer, however. Fianna Fail has no incentive to follow these local and European election contests and devastating Dail by-elections by serving up an early general election. The inevitable loss of Dail seats is something it will postpone for as long as possible and Brian Cowen will continue to insist that his mandate lasts until 2012.

The coming weeks will tell us much about his ability to hold his party together, though. The problems besetting Gordon Brown in Britain, where knives are being sharpened by Labour backbenchers, will not go unnoticed in Fianna Fail. Admittedly, there was a clear tipping point in Britain: Brown’s failure to take leadership on an expenses scandal that outraged the country and caused the resignation of several ministers.

Like Cowen, Brown has never led his party to general election success. He does not have a direct mandate. This has not prevented many Labour MPs from demanding a change of leader before he even gets a chance to prove himself. They realise they made a mistake in endorsing Brown’s succession to Tony Blair in a choreographed move that was presented as a fait accompli, much as Cowen’s succession to the Fianna Fail leadership was.

The behaviour of the ruling party of our near neighbours may provide a template for the disaffected within Fianna Fail. That number is surely growing following this weekend’s mauling. Cowen isn’t in a strong position to withstand any more setbacks, such is the litany of disasters he has experienced since his coronation 13 months ago.

There is also a question mark over his standing with the voters. Cowen has already lost one Lisbon referendum and he can’t afford to lose a second one this autumn. Even though the referendum will have the support of most parties, there is always a risk that Fianna Fail’s unpopularity could make the outcome closer than the polls currently suggest.

The taoiseach also has to negotiate another hair-shirt budget before December, taking unpopular decisions about public spending that will make his backbenchers even more fearful and lead to fresh questions about his mandate to dish out the medicine.

An added complication for Cowen is the make-up of his coalition government. His only consolation is the behaviour of Mary Harney, the partyless health minister. As her endorsement of Eoin Ryan in advance of last week’s European poll signified, she is all but a card-carrying member of Fianna Fail again.

Harney also pitched in with an attack on Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Fein. This may have been motivated by traditional Progressive Democrat distaste for the party, but it still played strongly to the agenda Fianna Fail had chosen in the last week of the campaign.

The Fianna Fail attack had wider implications, though. Bringing out the big guns to whack the Shinners was a tactical ploy to play off Ryan against McDonald in the European poll and to prevent Christy Burke sneaking through in the Dublin Central by-election. But it narrowed Cowen’s Dail possibilities.

In normal circumstances, Fianna Fail would not be averse to courting Sinn Fein and its four Dail deputies if that’s what circumstances required. Should the Greens withdraw from the coalition, it would not necessarily lead to a general election were Sinn Fein to replace them in government, or just vote in favour of a Cowen-led minority administration. But the taoiseach knows that Sinn Fein is not going to make the mistake of aligning itself to Fianna Fail in this difficult situation, running the risk of contamination that has affected other small parties that propped up governments.

Sharing power with the Democratic Unionist Party in the north is less toxic politically for Sinn Fein at present. So when Cowen claimed Sinn Fein is anti-European and anti-enterprise last week, he wasn’t necessarily burning any bridges. He knew deep down that those bridges had been torn down by Sinn Fein some time ago.

For Fianna Fail, it’s all about the Greens. The small coalition party loves the power that comes with government, but the noises it has been making in recent weeks suggest it is well aware of the dangers of being embraced too tightly by Fianna Fail. The Greens are touchy about the charge that they have propped up Cowen, but this is precisely what they are doing. So now we have a junior coalition partner claiming to be supportive of the decisions made by the government while simultaneously trying to distance itself from the administration. That makes the Greens look both cynical and foolish.

Times Recommends

• UN may halt 400-year-old 'freedom of the seas'
• Where the Rosetta belongs can’t be set in stone
• Gas deal on hold, but Ukraine may pay in the end