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Tomorrow, Peter Hain, the Northern Ireland secretary, and Dermot Ahern, the Irish foreign minister, meet at Hillsborough in an attempt to review progress ahead of the involvement of the taoiseach and prime minister. But they will be struggling to put a brave face on an increasingly unpromising scenario.
Ahern and Blair will set a number of “benchmarks” for progress between now and November and will outline measures to take if these are not met by the parties. Blair is likely to outline his government’s plan B of continued direct rule with increased north-south co-operation if the Stormont assembly fails.
The Irish and British leaders will also repeat their threat to stop assembly salaries on November 24, even if progress seems likely afterwards.
While all the main Northern Ireland parties say they want to see devolution restored, each is arguing for different terms. The Democratic Unionist party and Sinn Fein are blaming each other and are putting up contradictory demands.
The DUP wants more time after November 24, while Sinn Fein says it might not wait that long unless progress is evident. The benchmarks are intended to reconcile these positions.
Yesterday Gerry Adams, the Sinn Fein president, warned that his party might pull out of the assembly if progress was not evident. He announced a review of Sinn Fein involvement and cautioned Ahern and Blair against claiming things were going to plan.
“We are coming to the end of the six week sit-in of the Hain assembly and we need to recognise that no progress has been made,” he said. “The DUP has shown no interest in sharing power and has been allowed by the two governments to prevent progress being made.”
He called on Blair and Ahern to act. “If there is to be any possibility of powersharing institutions being restored, there is a need for them to take decisive action.”
The DUP is talking up the chances of an eventual settlement but warns that any movement on its part depends on a definitive end to IRA activity. The party has hinted that it may initiate an internal review aimed at sharing power in November, if the next report of the International Monitoring Commission gives Sinn Fein a clean bill of health.
A contentious Orange Order march in west Belfast passed off peacefully yesterday. As 50 Orangemen paraded along a section of the Springfield Road, 150 nationalists lined the footpath in protest. Sinn Fein and SDLP politicians were present. After a short distance, the Orangemen rejoined 16 bands and 750 marchers who passed separately through a nearby disused factory.
Last September, the Whiterock parade erupted into week-long loyalist rioting when the order was refused entry to Springfield Road. Police officers were attacked with petrol bombs, live rounds were fired and £3m damage was caused.
Last Friday the Springfield Road residents’ group was refused leave at Belfast’s High Court for a judicial review of the Parades Commission’s decision to allow a small number of Orangemen to pass through the Workman Avenue flashpoint.
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