There is a whiff of desperation about the SDLP. Its forthcoming leadership contest is being promoted as a way to revive interest, raise funds and increase membership, a sign of how deep a hole the party is in.

When the future seems bright, political parties prefer coronations to contests. Power is then brokered between the party magnates, who maintain public unity at all costs. When Peter Robinson took over from Ian Paisley as DUP leader, he made Nigel Dodds, the only possible challenger, his deputy.

The same thing happened when Brian Cowen took over from Bertie Ahern in Fianna Fail — he gave key posts to Brian Lenihan, Micheál Martin and Dermot Ahern. It happened in Labour when Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair.

In good times, backbenchers don’t want to see blood on the floor. Potential leadership candidates often respond to internal pressure to avoid public arguments and agree a carve-up of top jobs. The deal is billed as a “dream ticket”.

Nominations for the SDLP leadership open today, but it’s already clear that there will be no dream ticket. Instead, Dr Alasdair McDonnell, the deputy leader, and Margaret Ritchie, the social development minister, have thrown their hats in the ring and the party membership is hoping the contest will revitalise the SDLP and boost its coffers.

The reason is that, unless the executive changes the rules after nominations close on November 14, the election is not going to be held until the party conference in February and membership lists will remain open until December 31. In the meantime, every 10 members a party branch can add entitle it to an extra vote for the leadership.

So between now and December, Michael Savage, the party’s chief executive, can expect a flood of membership applications, each accompanied by a £20 subscription. Supporters of both Ritchie and McDonnell are in recruitment mode. Whoever succeeds could swing the outcome of an election in which councillors, MLAs and members of the party executive can also vote.

If the election were to be held on the existing membership, Ritchie would have the edge. If the books remain open until the end of the year, McDonnell has a chance. He and Patsy McGlone, a Mid Ulster MLA who is a key supporter, are credited with having the organisational ability to bring in plenty of new members. The recruitment drive and months of hustings in local branches are seen as a means of reviving the organisation, regardless of the outcome.

The areas with the biggest SDLP membership are South Down, Ritchie’s home constituency, and Foyle, the Westminster seat held by Mark Durkan, the outgoing leader. These are believed to be solidly behind Ritchie. Supporters predict she will also be nominated by SDLP youth and women’s groups.

McDonnell won a stunning victory in the general election four years ago, snatching South Belfast from the unionists. SDLP membership soared in the constituency. Most of it will be behind its sitting MP, but a proportion won’t. The Balmoral branch is the base of Carmel Hanna, an MLA and key supporter of Ritchie. Mid Ulster, McGlone’s stronghold, is McDonnell territory and he has already addressed meetings there.

McDonnell, from Cushendall, is expected to poll strongly in his native Antrim, but by now we are into smaller areas with little party organisation. Sinn Fein’s dominance in other nationalist areas of Belfast is such that branches outside McDonnell’s constituency won’t really count. “What we need is a bruiser and an organiser. Alasdair fits the bill on both,” one supporter said, pointing also to his thick skin, his pragmatic attitude and an ability to weather personal attacks from opponents.

The bruiser part has a downside, however. McDonnell, known as Big Al, has an outgoing personality and can charm voters. But within the party he can be brusque with subordinates and frank to the point of rudeness.

People who built power bases under Durkan see McDonnell as a tough and none-too-diplomatic taskmaster, who would follow his own hunches and upset the internal fiefdom of anyone who got in his way. Of course those qualities are popular with many grassroots activists who believe that the party needs shaking up. Ritchie, 51, is popular for fighting her corner against the DUP and Sinn Fein in the executive. She refused public money to community groups with links to the UDA, which led to a showdown with Peter Robinson and the move was subsequently overturned in the courts. She successfully faced down the DUP over cuts in her housing budget and has won the support of Sir Reg Empey, the Ulster Unionist leader, in most of her tussles within the executive.

Besides Hanna, Ritchie’s key supporters include Dolores Kelly, an MLA in Upper Bann, and Alex Attwood, the SDLP’s sole MLA in West Belfast. She is generally seen as the leadership choice, a steady-as-she-goes candidate with pluck and ability. People use words like “honest”, “sincere” and “determined” to describe her. On the debit side, she is seen as having “a glass jaw” when it comes to taking criticism. Critics say ‘Wee Maggie’ takes offence readily and is too easily needled by Sinn Fein. Questions are being asked over how she would react to the pressures of leading the SDLP through its present crisis, especially if she remains a minister.

Her political background was as right-hand woman to Eddie McGrady, 74, the veteran MP for South Down who faces a Westminster challenge from Catríona Ruane of Sinn Fein. McGrady, who has been 22 years in parliament, has announced his intention of standing in the next Westminster election. He told his local paper he is looking forward to the next two decades.

Some McDonnell supporters don’t see the joke, however, and believe he should have stood aside to let Ritchie contest the seat. There are even criticisms of Durkan for not putting pressure on McGrady to hand over before his majority is eroded.

Whoever wins faces a challenge to keep the SDLP together. The fact that Durkan, 49, is the party’s youngest MLA says it all. He had been expected to lead for longer and will be replaced by an older candidate.

Durkan was John Hume’s anointed successor but, like Cowen and Brown, received a poisoned legacy from a more successful leader and took over a party in decline. When Hume retired in 2000, he left the SDLP in apparently good order. But there was a cuckoo in the nest in the shape of Sinn Fein, which Hume had spent years coaxing away from violence and into the political mainstream.

In the process he became closely identified with Gerry Adams, the Sinn Fein president, in what was referred to as “the Hume/Adams process”. As a result, the taboo against SDLP voters switching to Sinn Fein was eroded and, as soon as Hume retired, Adams started presenting himself as the SDLP leader’s real successor and criticised Durkan.

Sinn Fein won Hume’s European seat in 2004 and is now the largest nationalist party in the North and is attempting to round up the SDLP’s remaining elected positions.

Whoever succeeds Durkan will somehow have to find a way to hold the line against this advance.

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