THE government is expected to deny Romanian and Bulgarian workers open access to the Irish labour market if the countries join the European Union next year. The cabinet is likely to insist on work-permit requirements for the new EU entrants because of business and union concerns about the global economy and job displacement.

The taoiseach signalled a shift in the government’s position last week when he rebuked other EU leaders for failing to allow open access to their labour markets to the 10 accession states that joined the union in May 2004. “We’ll have to eventually look at Bulgaria and Romania but I’d rather see my colleagues being a bit more advanced,” Ahern said. While Ireland, the UK and Sweden allowed citizens of accession state countries full access to their markets on joining, it was only last week that Finland, Spain, Portugal and Greece made similar arrangements.

France promised to loosen restrictions, but Germany and Austria, Holland, Belgium, Italy, Denmark and Luxembourg retain very tight controls on workers from the mainly east European countries.

A government spokesman said it will be decided in the autumn whether labour market access will be granted to Bulgaria and Romania. He emphasised that the decision will be based on a number of factors, such as the labour market situation and the position taken by other member states.

“As yet, only Finland has announced that it will allow full access to its labour market to nationals of Bulgaria and Romania from the date of accession,” he said. Another official said: “We would be very conscious of not ending up with a labour market that is over-supplied.”

A labour force study by Fas, the employment authority, due for completion this month, is not expected to show significant job displacement by migrant workers.

A report by Allied Irish Banks in February found no hard evidence of displacement, though it fell short of proving that displacement had not occurred.

Of the 180,000 workers who came to Ireland in the past two years from 10 new EU member states, about half were Polish, and 72,000 remain, according to new figures from the Central Statistics Office.

Concerns in the Irish Congress of Trade Unions about displacement of Irish workers by low-paid or exploited migrant workers has been a difficult issue in nearly four months of talks on a new social partnership agreement. But Ibec, the employers’ body, is anxious about international factors, such as the soaring price of oil, that could trigger an economic downturn and reduce the need for migrant labour.

An official said the social partners would be consulted before a decision on Bulgaria and Romania. “I don’t think we are getting very positive vibes among unions and employers at the moment,” he said. “Given the international economic situation, we would have concerns about a possible downturn and people are just cautious at the moment.”

Another government official said: “We have a skills shortage here, but that is being addressed by the numbers we have coming in. The feeling is we already have a sufficient pool.”

An EU report on enlargement recently found no evidence in the older 15 members states of “a surge in either numbers of workers or welfare expenditure after enlargement”, compared with the previous two years.

It said that countries that had not applied restrictions after May 2004 — UK, Ireland and Sweden — “experienced high economic growth, a drop of unemployment and a rise in employment”.

Olli Rehn, the EU enlargement commissioner, reported last week that Bulgaria’s failure to arrest gangland leaders and control its crime problem had left Bulgaria trailing Romania in the accession stakes.

Organised crime is now the biggest barrier to Bulgaria’s accession, even though it has introduced a raft of new anti-racketeering legislation.

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