Enda Kenny has a problem. So do we. The Fine Gael leader is the only realistic candidate to replace Bertie Ahern as taoiseach, but he has failed to convince enough people that he has what it takes to grab the mantle.

His supporters will consider that judgment both harsh and unfair, but let’s deal with the facts. Kenny has has had four years to insinuate himself into the public consciousness, but successive opinion polls indicate he has failed to make the type of impact required of a potential taoiseach.

Broadcasters and journalists strive for impartiality when it comes to reporting on elections, but like others who enjoy these jousts, we look forward to engaging campaigns that provide animated debate, cutting argument, intrigue, real competition and uncertainty as to the outcome.

A keenly fought contest, in which the outcome is uncertain up until the last ballot box has closed, has the potential to engage the public in a serious debate as to how this country has been governed since 1997. Irish people are interested in the issues that affect their lives — transport, housing, health, education and crime — but can quickly become disillusioned and disengaged if they feel there is no difference in the approach of the biggest parties.

Fine Gael’s pre-election strategy is concentrating on negative campaigning, shining the spotlight on the performance of the government and specific ministers, although significantly not on Ahern himself. It is targeting the government’s waste of public money, problems in delivering an efficient health service, and a perceived surge in crime and the failure to respond to it.

The party has a six-week advertising campaign featuring “ordinary people” putting a face to these complaints. Some billboards use Kenny himself, highlighting his promise that he is the man to solve the crisis in the country’s accident and emergency units. The theme was carried into Kenny’s ard fheis speech last weekend.

But tapping into public dissatisfaction with the government is a limited — and limiting — strategy. Most voters already know the country’s problems and know who to blame. So while Fine Gael may succeed in further undermining the capabilities of the incumbents, it is revealing little about itself. It is not even presenting a convincing outline of an alternative government.

Fine Gael’s lack of experience means it cannot offer a track record of competence. Based on the performance of its front bench, it cannot convincingly promise an outstanding slate of potential ministers either. There is also a complete absence of innovative policies.

So Fine Gael’s alternative is that it is an alternative. With help from Labour and the Greens it just wants a chance to show what it can do in government. And that’s more or less it. Put it another way: without telling us precisely why it deserves to be elected, Fine Gael wants to be rewarded for not being in power for the past nine years.

Having berated the Fianna Fail/ Progressive Democrat coalition, Fine Gael is telling voters it offers much the same as the current government, but promises to do things better. That will make for a very tedious election campaign.

The government may be unpopular, but it will still take something extraordinary to put Fine Gael into power. The party holds only 32 seats at present and needs to gain about 30 more to be in a position to lead an alternative government. It will need to increase its share of the vote to at least 28% from the miserable 22% achieved in 2002.

Fine Gael’s backroom team is taking confidence from the party’s performances in the 2004 local and European elections, but, conveniently, ignores its subsequent slump in the opinion polls. Strategists believe these polls underestimate the potential party vote, and they may be proven right.

But if they also suspect that informed debate will not shape the contest for an apathetic electorate, then that increases the emphasis on personality, and it requires a strong, charismatic standard-bearer. This is where the potential for things to go wrong multiplies significantly. Putting Kenny centre stage is a high-risk strategy and will place enormous demands on the Fine Gael leader.

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