By Richard Beeston, Diplomatic Editor
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President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad dragged his rambling monologue out for two whole hours before dropping his verbal bombshell that Iran planned to release the 15 captured British marines and sailors as a “gift” to mark the Prophet’s birthday.
The announcement took Downing Street, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Ministry of Defence completely by surprise.
British officials handling the crisis had noted a change in mood this week but no one imagined that the Iranians would climb down so quickly without demanding anything in return.
So what caused this sudden turn about?
Certainly Mr Ahmadinejad has not suddenly gone soft on the West. Most of his press conference yesterday was taken up with a diatribe against America and Britain, who were blamed for most of Iran’s historical setbacks and most of its current ills.
He also repeated the claim that the captured Britons had entered Iranian waters illegally. To reinforce the point he pinned a medal to the chest of the Iranian officer responsible for capturing them.
The only possible explanation is that the release was ordered by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme leader, who has so far not spoken publicly about the 13-day crisis.
Behind the scenes it is assumed that a fierce struggle has been taking place in Tehran between hardliners and pragmatists.
The extremists wanted to put the British on trial or at least hold them as a bargaining chip for the release of five Iranian officials arrested by US forces in Iraq in January who are still in custody.
The more moderate elements advised the opposite. Iran is already reeling from sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council and in all likelihood faces further measures this year if it is does not halt its controversial nuclear programme.
The British might not have been in a position to use force against Iran but they did demonstrate that they could muster powerful allies around the world willing to take up the cause of the captured British sailors and marines. Iran’s economy is already weak, further action could damage the Government’s power base.
The UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for an end to the crisis. A tougher worded statement came from the European Union. Key Middle East regional powers, like Turkey, Syria, Saudia Arabia and Iraq also took up the cause and bombarded Iranian leaders with calls to free the British.
Many leaders in the region feared that the incident could provide the spark for a new conflict in the Gulf. US forces have been massing in the area and there are genuine fears that President Bush may order an attack on Iran before he steps down from office..
Yesterday Tony Blair made it clear to the Iranians that he had two options available to him. One was patient diplomatic negotiations. Failling that he could squeeze Iran internationally, further isolate the country and set the stage for a prolonged conflict.
Amazingly, Iran blinked first and the crisis which threatened to destabilise the region further now looks to be over. The sailors and marines should be home to enjoy Easter with their families.
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now much about Iranian politics but I am convinced this article got it right.
A few months ago The Supreme Leader Kameney criticized ahmedinejad for his fiery statements when it comes to the nuclear issue. Amedinejad was a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Its very possible that the revolutionary Guard arrested the british without the knowledge of the supreme leader that was faced with the fait accompli. The Supreme leader tought had enought and forced ahmedinejad to release the british detainees.
Peter42y, lisbon, portugal
The Mullahs' henchmen who read these posts will no doubt believe they "won," but they are wrong. Iran will enjoy some short term propoganda, but that only reinforces the point that their "republic" is built on anything but truth. They will mistake our vehement arguments and these tit for tat verbal jousts between Americans and Europeans as evidence of division and weakness in the west...which again only demonstrates that they don't get it. In the western culture we debate and disagree and criticise ourselves and each other as second nature. The Iranian people have will have lost in the long run because the actions of their corrupt, totalitarian government have only served to move them farther away from the promise and hope that a liberal democratic future could bring.
Sam, Washington, DC
Rules of engagement. The 15 armed British Marines had to be under orders they need authority from the UK prior to firing a weapon at Iranian forces. If there is fault with how they acted when confronted, elevate it to the top leadership who creates these "political" nightmares. I hope the US military has given a green light to fire away if they have to defend themselves,.Reality dictates courage under fire may result in death, recall the founding fathers, give me liberty or give me death, not give me liberty or give me diplomacy! This is the military! Imagine a police office being confronted by armed thugs, would he just surrender? Please Mr. Blair and Mr. Bush, let your military people make the decisions in real time in the field, and fire away when confronted by Islamic enemies.
Rich, Paramus, NJ/USA
To Mike in London--I wonder that you don't see that perhaps the american build up along a couple borders of Iran AND the buildup of American ships in the Gulf might have had something to do with the release of your soldiers. I think you should recognize us for the allies that we are and maybe think about how nice it is to have a cowboy at your side. Bush was quiet at the request of YOUR prime minister.
Pretty sure this will not be printed....
mary, San Antonio, Texas
There were lots of prayers for your people from our house!
Kim Righetti, Upland, Calif.USA
Your military was disgraced by the actions of the 15 Marines and sailors! You call it "diplomacy" that resulted in their release? I trust the group is enjoying their "goodie bags". Why didn't they wear their new suits when they departed the airplane in London? This group should be jailed and given a dishonorable discharge. And they call themselves Marines!
frank, Wilmington, DE, U.S.A.
Would all the people complaining about the UK's lack of military response, and the captured pesonnels shameful "co-operation" with the Iranians care to remind me when, exactly, we declared war on Iran? Because if we didn't then a diplomatic solution (which worked) seems to be the sensible option for two countries that haven't declared hostilities.
As for Reza's comment below, I'm afraid that's just laughable - Iranian GPS proves we were in their waters, our GPS proves we weren't and, appropos my comments above, of course we would have taken action against any Germans who were in our waters while Hitler was in power because WE WERE AT WAR WITH THEM!!!
...and before anyone says "we didn't declare war on Iraq", look where that's got us!
Homer S, London,
The lessons to be learnt from the outcome of this charade are : That greater caution should be taken when operating in a foreign theatre of war. That when conducting these stop and search missions, there should be a back up.That if a gun is pointed at your head, it is no disgrace to lie until your tongue drops off. That America is not truly our ally - they only think of themselves. That diplomacy can work and should be the first resort, something Americans, with their complete lack of knowledge of the outside world fail to understand. And that all politicians and military leaders learn something from this debacle.
Mike, London, U.K.
A large Brit ship allows a handful of Iranians to capture their people, Such a sorry spectacle - the Iranians even got the Brit military out of their uniforms for the last happy gabfest!!! . Don't the Brit military have any rules or shame?
J. Donahue, Dana Pt., CA/USA
What Mr. Richard Beeston comments here on Bush administration possible intention to attack Iran before he steps down or Tony Blair sqeezing Iran thorogh his Eu allies,with all respect, comes from his poor knowldge of the matter.I as an Iranian who oppose my countrys current rullers and someone who does everything he can to free Iran from the evil hands of Mullas believe that British sun has set long time ago and propaganda and lies in your papers will not work.The 15 servicemen did traspass Iranian territorial waters.That is a fact.GPS shows it. Hope you understand our feelings by putting yourelf in the situation that what would you do if German did this to you.Let me take you back to Hitlers time.Perhaps then you could have a clearer view of the matter.
Reza, manchester, England
Drool, Britannia
D.L. Conrad, Chester Basin, Canada
John in Seattle, wake up,rub your eyes & shake your head. Do you really think they were well treated? ,its a pity there isn`t a certain Canadian female citizen alive today to question their methods. Glead,Venezuela the only reason you are clicking away on the key-pad right now is because Hugo Gordo agrees with you ,be careful because when he doesn`t his pal Fidel has already told him how to deal with the situation.
M.Burkinshaw, Gran Canaria, Spain
To president Ahmadinjad:
Thank you for providing the world with undeniable proof that these british sailors were in your territorial waters and thanks for holding freedom loving people against their will. I'm not a flag waving Bushie and I realize Americans make alot of mistakes around the world, but c'mon. what's next? Iran will deny the Holocaust(lol)
Bill, Arlington heights, illinois
It's terrific that the 15 captured Britons have been set free but is there any concern about some of their apparent cordial cooperation with the Iranians during captivity? I realize that the self preservation instincts of human beings kick in at some point but they were held for less than 2 weeks. The sort of smiling apologetic behavior they displayed from the beginning seems inconsistent with the image I have of the British military. I don't believe there is a softening of the warrior class in GB. What do the fighting men and women of GB think of this?
Tom, Boston, USA
Don't worry Glead,
The west will get your oil too :)
John, Bull , UK
Uh, Glead, what are you smoking? Surplus agriculture? Don't need outside help? Iran is a "fully integrated" country - meaning that it imports 50% of its gasoline (while still exporting billions of barrels of crude) annually. Also, they make very little that they need - they import over 40% of their current consumption of other goods and foods. Where else do you think they get those Mickey Mouse and Indianapolis Colts and New York Yankees tshirts all the kids are wearing?
Unfortunately, the world needs their oil, but Iran needs other things in return. Sanctions hurt. Why else would they not just completely cut themselves off like the equally insane North Koreans have done, who truly have "made it "with very little international trade.
In 20 years, all the current crazy oil countries like Venez, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc, will not have the power they do today. Hope your mahogany grows fast dude, your gonna need it - to burn to heat your home
Scott, Nashville, Tennessee/USA
it looks as if John from Seattle suffered from the same brainwashing that the UK soliders went through.
Wake up man. You're too easily blinded by the show MA put on in Iran. If that country is so much better than our own, why don't you put your money where your mouth is and move there.
Stalin had a phrase for people like you: useful idiots
Michael, New York, New York
Sorry, 'John from Seattle', but your comments seem naive. I think you ought to review your own emotions for a source of manipulation, as you put it. I'm no Bush lover and have significant complaints about this Adminstration's attitude and behavior. That said, Iran is very great danger to not the west directly but her immediate neighbors and the region in general. That danger *must* be carefully but firmly (very firmly) be confronted and mitigated.
Ron Arbitage, Anchorage,
The entire problem in the Middle East is derived purely from Western Stupidity. We, (The West) Lack respect and understanding for the people and other cultures. We have forgotten that most of our beliefs and religions stem from that area, and that in all truth we are brothers to those in the Middle East. Weather they are Jewish, or Muslim they are still our brothers. And I have a great deal of respect for the Iranian President and the people of Iran. I must usher caution, the President of Iran is an intelligent man, and should not be taken lightly. Bush needs to learn to accept Iran's help and meet with the leaders of the Middle East as friends, not as powers. In the end, he (Bush) holds no real power only a proxy throne. Iran on the other hand can bring hell to the Americans without trying. Listen to what is said by both sides, and fly your flag high, but keep an open mind, and be ready to learn about other cultures. America is Falling, God Bless Those who Fight and Die. God Bless...
Clinton, Campbell River, Canada
Iran's government does not represent the people, 98% of the Iranian people are against the government, iran executes the 2nd most amount of people right behind China (hangings, and stonings) this brutal regime stays in power with the use of terror and force, if outside powers help, Iran's government would fall in minutes. Their is no support for this regime, We hate them all
Ahmad, Tehran, Iran
Now we need to convert to renewable energy and end our frankly pathetic reliance on despots, dictators and total nutters.
Ben, York,
I would point out that Britain currently basks in the Gulf Stream and will not "freeze to death" as a general point. Warm clothes and basic insulation are more than adequate for most people in Britain.
Rather we are concerned that the wanton burning of the black gold will cause a global climate catastrophe.
What better way of controlling CO2 than the odd oil crisis now and again to push up the oil price.
Phil Friend, Hull,
The world is warming up, oil should become a commodoty of the past, a dependancy that future generations shall view as archaic and primitive. The world does not need Iran for energy, the world needs to take heed that the tensions of this area for energy dependancy are needless and wasteful.
Renewable energy sources should be fully investigated and persued to provide a greener solution to the problems we are all facing now. The United States should lead this campaign and cut down the vast emissions that it contributes to global warming.
This non dependancy on oil will hurt Iran and Venezuela much more than an occupation, however drawnout yet temporary it may be. Sanctions will only go so far when you turn right around and purchase oil.
With China and Russia's dependancy on the oil of Iran there really isn't much that the international community can hope to accomplish.
Simyang Continawa, Beijong, Solitaire
Eh Glead (Venezula),
Britain until a few years ago was an oil exporting country also. Expects to be that way again when the Buzzard field comes online next year. Before a rant get your facts right, for goodness sake. We have nowhere near as much oil as Venezuela or Iran but we do have a small thing called north sea oil, and rumours of its decline are much exaggerated.
Hugh Mackenzie, Aberdeen, UK
Like many Venezualens you highly overrate the UK and US dependance upon oil. Let alone foreign oil. Also many in the US and UK are equally misinformed.
I wish you, and all the other "oil rich nations" would stop providing the US and UK with oil. It would be good for us to learn how little we need it, and fun to see how much you need us. The US alone could most likely supply all the oil we need but for certain sanctions right now about drilling where we know it exists.
Lee, Burbank , USA
I don't need Iran I'm going to bio fuels that I can make myself. The US would have been out of Iraq a long time ago if it wasn't for religious leaders saying that they were fighting against infitiles of Islam. Then terrorist decided that they would cause more problems and that's the only reason that the US is still there. And for Iran if they would slow down and think alittle they would have allowed nuclear inspectors to monitor there program maybe the US would not mind. And then they say words of war against the west when they don't even listen to the Security Counsil come on what are we suppose to think what they are doing.
Jeff, Hach, Texas
I think that Richard Beeston has missed the point. There is no question of Iran blinking first. Quite the contrary. It was Tony Blair who was obliged to retreat from his arrogant demands. "Release the captives immediately or there will be serious consequences" he said. Iran did not and there were no serious consequences. It seems that Iran, frustrated at what it sees as repeated violations of its territorial waters by the Royal Navy has taken action to prevent further incursions. It also seems that it has in all probability succeeded in just that. Blair on the other hand, who little more than a week ago stated that "the wellbeing of our forces is our highest priority", showed that that was secondary to portraying himself as a powerful figure in world politics, something in which he failed miserably, and in doing so caused the detention of the captives to be unneccesarily prolonged. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today advised Blair to think more of the British people and less of himself. Wisdom!!
Jim Oliver, Leicester, England
The US yearly GDP is $12.98 trillion and Iran only does a little over $50 billion in oil exports, TOTAL. Iran's GDP is $610 billion. Iran doesn't make everything it needs nor does it have a surplus of anything more than energy. Go read a book you illiterate moron.
Christopher, Costa Mesa, CA
Iran acts like a hostage taking terrorist group and no one should be deluded that its government is any better than a terrorist group. The decent nations of the world should not appease such a government and certainly should not allow it to obtain nuclear weapons. There should be consequences for this act of aggession, either publicly or covertly.
Joe, Des Moines, Iowa USA
Those who claim to believe that the solution to the world's problems is to further balkanize national boundaries, and to allow religious fanatics to control nations (and I include GW Bush in the same group with Khamenei and his ilk) must surely have something to gain from strife, pain and the suffering of others. It concerns me that they may be correct; they are likely to gain power, at the expense of those involved in conflict.
It's quite clear that Iran committed an act of piracy in this case, and that the situation could have been peacefully resolved simply by warning the British sailors if they had actually transgressed Iranian waters. Thank goodness that someone in Iran realized there was nothing to be gained by provoking further sanctions!
Rich, Portland OR, USA
Iran may not need us as much as we need them, but I do recall that they end up importing most of their refined gasoline. And, no one in power is going to sacrifice the lucrative oil trade even if they can survive on their own agriculture. Life is sustained with food, power is sustained with oil.
Jeff, Seattle, WA
Brilliant PR move by Iran that's left warmongering Bush clearly flummoxed.
Blair did the right thing for once by telling Bush to back off.
British diplomacy works when we want it to work.
Hat off to Mrs Beckett.
Do believe that Royal Navy 15 should be awarded medal for cunning for staying alive and for preventing a war.
Strongly suggest as precautionary measure that Bandy (First Sea Lord) keep the subs in the Persian Gulf for the moment.
HILLBLOGGER3, Brussels, Belgium
Lets get real, this was Iran's chance to grab the spot light due to a British miscue. They played their cards well and received a lot of airtime. Would the world have covered the same story if 15 Iranians were detained by the British?
AB, rockville, maryland
I hope the video all over the media will convince anyone with a open mind that the President of the IRI is not Hitler. Anytime you read or hear remarks to this effect, know that someone is manipulating your emotions towards the result of an endless war that will bankrupt the west, and leads to monetary and economic meltdown, and our ultimate ruin. The sailors clearly were treated well, not with the Abu Garib waterboards. Very probably, they were within what Iran considers their territorial waters. If the boundary is disputed, why not settle the matter to mutual satisfaction so that such incidents will not reoccur? Conclusion: stay off Iranian ships in Iranian waters, just the same as the US/UK would say about their own territorial sovereignty.
John, Seattle, USA
Someone in Iran has a brain. Tip of the day "Do not take a helicopter ride with Ahmadinejad" I think he will be checking out sooner than later.
Michael, ST PETERSBURG, Florida
Your vision of Iran is skewed. You need Iran, they don't need you. Iran's oil gushing out of the ground is worth over 100 billion $ annually. Further, they make everything else they need and have surplus agriculture. Your farsical sanction against Iran has been in place for 30 years and has achieved null except negative return for yourself and that is why you are screaming. It is britain that can freeze to death if it didn't import oil and did not commit aggression to rub the people of Iraq from theirs.
glead, barqisimeto, Venezuela