Ehud Olmert, the Israeli Prime Minister, exercised “misguided and rash judgment” in launching Israel’s war in Lebanon last summer, a commission of inquiry has found.

But the Winograd Commission report stops short of calling on the Prime Minister to resign, according to a leaked copy of its preliminary findings, obtained by Channel Ten television in Israel last night. The report will be published on Monday.

The conclusions would seem to reduce pressure on the embattled Prime Minister, who has been plagued by low approval ratings stemming from a widespread public perception that the war was a failure.

Some observers had predicted that the panel would ask Mr Olmert to step down, finding him at fault and forcing an early end to his political career.

Instead, its harshest criticism appears to focus on Amir Peretz, the Defence Minister, who assumed his post shortly before the war, which was triggered by the abduction of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah near the Lebanese border.

Mr Peretz was faulted by the panel for his lack of military knowledge, while Mr Olmert was criticised for being too easily influenced by his generals and for failing to anticipate the strength of Hezbollah.

More than 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and more than 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers, were killed in the 34-day conflict.

With the kidnapped soldiers still missing, Israelis have punished Mr Olmert with approval ratings that recently plunged to a record low of 2 per cent.

But the Prime Minister’s closest aides hoped that if the commission didn’t call for his immediate resignation his popularity could rebound.

“This could give the Prime Minister an electoral upswing,” predicted Lior Horev, one of Mr Olmert’s top advisers.

Other observers were less optimistic. “The question isn’t whether the Prime Minister’s career will come to an end, but when,” said Yaaron Ezrahi, a professor of political science at Hebrew University.

Others questioned the integrity of the Winograd panel, appointed by the Government to analyse the first five days of fighting and the decision by Israel to start the war.

Eli Shaked, the commission spokesman, said that the Prime Minister’s political fate ultimately rested with the Israeli public. “The report definitely makes conclusions of a personal nature against the Prime Minister himself,” he said.

“But it will leave it up to the Israeli public to decide how to act on them and what changes should be made to move forward,” he said.

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