Richard Beeston, Rana Sabbagh-Gargour
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Nearly four months after President Bush announced his “surge” plan for Iraq, the final American reinforcements supposed to retake control of Baghdad and set the country on a new course are nearly in place. But even as the troops deploy in some of Baghdad’s most notorious neighbourhoods, with orders to root out Sunni Muslim insurgents and Shia Muslim militias and allow long-awaited reconstruction to take place, the battle for the future of Iraq may already be lost.
Mr Bush’s strategy, carried out by Lieutenant General David Petraeus, has had some impact. The number of deaths from sectarian killings, blamed on Shia death squads against Sunni civilians, has reduced and some order has been restored to areas where anarchy ruled. But events in Iraq, the US and abroad means that General Petraeus and his men have little time to turn around the situation.
The commander has admitted that his mission is running against “two clocks”. The clock in Baghdad is the time it will take to restore order and win the insurgency war. This is likely to take months or years, with a huge commitment of US money and manpower. The other clock is ticking in America, where public support for the war is collapsing and calls for a withdrawal have spread from the Democrats to Mr Bush’s own Republican Party.
Most observers seem to agree that Mr Bush has until the end of this summer to produce results, but nothing short of divine intervention could deliver a victory in that short period. In spite of the additional 21,500 troops in Baghdad, the security situation is precarious. Suicide car bombings, blamed on al-Qaeda and targeted mainly against Shia civilians, have not abated. There is evidence that insurgents have simply moved their operations north of the city to the province of Diyala, where US military commanders are asking for more troops to deal with the upsurge in violence. The number of deaths among American forces, more vulnerable in their new role, has now exceeded 3,400. Last month, their British allies in the south recorded their highest death toll since the invasion four years ago.
Outside Iraq, events are also conspiring against the White House. The departure of Tony Blair at the end of next month will rob Mr Bush of his most loyal ally and main partner in Iraq. Gordon Brown, his successor, insists that British forces will remain in southern Iraq. It is likely, however, that their numbers will be reduced to a token force as Mr Brown distances himself from his predecessor’s most disastrous legacy.
Arguably the biggest battle for the future of Iraq is being fought in America. Two thirds of the public are now in favour of setting a timetable for the withdrawal of US forces and sticking to it regardless of the situation on the ground. Iraq is becoming the central issue in the presidential election. Although the vote is 18 months away, candidates across the spectrum are supporting calls for a US withdrawal by 2008.
The Democrat-controlled Congress is challenging Mr Bush’s policy daily. To receive continued funding for the war, the White House may have to accept “benchmarks” for Iraq’s beleaguered Government to meet for America to remain engaged.
These include the passing of legislation in the Iraq parliament to allow redistribution of the country’s oil wealth among its regions. Other reforms include lifting a ban on former Baathists from serving in senior government positions, changing the Constitution to satisfy the Sunni minority and holding provincial elections.
While the Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, struggles to implement these demands, there are real fears that his Government may collapse or that the reforms will simply be shelved by parliamentarians. Iraqi MPs are insisting on taking a two-month summer break, which would rule out any hope of tackling the country’s most pressing problems.
Perhaps Iraqi leaders are resigned to something that has already dawned on America’s allies in the Arab world: that the Iraqi adventure is unwinnable and plans must be made for the next bloody stage in the country’s tragic path.
Toby Dodge, an expert on Iraq at London University who has just returned from a month in Baghdad, said that if Mr Bush’s surge fails and American troops begin to withdraw the country’s desperate situation will become disastrous. “A reduction in American troop numbers would lead to an increase in sectarian violence and push the country closer to civil war. There are no good options if the surge fails. Unfortunately, the worst-case scenario is the most likely one,” he said.
By that he means that Baghdad will become an open battleground between Shia and Sunni fighters with civilians the hardest hit. The weak central government would probably fracture, the police force defect en masse to the militias and the fledgeling army face collapse.
Iraqi political groups are already anticipating the move. “If the Americans left we would probably take over Baghdad in a month,” predicted one senior member of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, one of the two main Shia groups. “Saddam managed to put down the Shia uprising in 1991 in a month. If we use the same tactics we will get the same results.”
A conflict of this magnitude in Iraq would drag in its neighbours. Iran, already a powerful force behind the scenes, would be expected to extend its influence among its Shia brethren, particularly in the south where most of the country’s oil reserves are located. Saudi Arabia has already hinted that it would intervene on behalf of the Sunni minority, perhaps supporting Sunni tribes where they are dominant in western Iraq.
Al-Qaeda, whose suicide bombers have done so much to make Iraq ungovernable, would probably follow its publicly stated objective of turning Iraq into its main global base, with a view to expanding terror across the Middle East. Even northern Iraq, the relatively peaceful Kurdish area, would not be spared. Turkey’s resurgent military leaders are threatening to send troops into the area to attack Kurdish separatists. Without American cover, little would stop the Turks from acting on their threats.
Anyone who believes that the situation in Iraq is bad today should consider how much worse it is likely to become when the Americans decide to leave.
Clock watcher
General David H. Petraeus assumed command of the multinational Force in Iraq on February 10. Before taking over the post, he had co-written the US Army’s counter-insurgency manual, after completing his dissertation on the lessons of Vietnam.
During the invasion of Iraq in 2003 he commanded the 101st Airborne Division and was responsible for northern Iraq. He then headed Nato’s training mission in Iraq. Earlier he had served in various roles, notably overseeing the UN mission to Haiti.
He graduated top of his class from the US Army Command and General Staff College, and gained a PhD from Princeton
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The Shia will remain in control of the central government of Iraq, without any support from the US being necessary. The issue of which Shia faction emerges in control is really not a proper concern of the US. Iran has offered to help assure stability in Iraq if the US withdraws, and Muqtada al-Sadr indicates he wants the US out and expects to be able to contain sectarian violence. The Sunnis recognize no amount of fighting would enable them to recapture control, and Iran in any event would prevent it. The "surge" is an absurd squandering of American blood and treasure for no good purpose whatever. Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Newt Gingrich, and Joe Lieberman all want a permanent large-scale military presence in Iraq, to "protect" Israel. This course does not benefit either Israel, the US or Iraq.
James Canning, Seattle, USA
To all those who continually invoke "God's" forgiveness, may I remind them that "all Gods, from time immemorial, are fantasies created by humans for the comfort of humans, and in an attempt to explain the seemingly inexplicable."
Neil, Glouestershire, England
The invasion of Iraq had nothing whatsoever to do with the Twin Towers atrocity - apart from the fact that it was used as an excuse. Iraq was invaded not because its leader was a tyrant - that tyrant was once strongly supported by the USA - but because he dared to meddle with borders which had been fixed by countries of the West, in the interests of the countries of the West. Nothing whatsoever to do with the interests of the people of those countries. That this latest example of the West attempting to impose a puppet regime on a country of the Middle East fails, then so be it. As far a Britain is concerned this was Blair's war, against the wishes of the vast majority in the UK, it was entered into on a web of lies and deceipt. Perhaps the politicians will learn lessons (very unlikely). We already see the propaganda war in respect of Iran - who can blame Iran for wanting nuclear weapons?
Neil, Glouestershire, England
America is in in North America, like Canada where I am from. America's President and intelligence services distorted the truth (lied) in order to justify a flat out invasion of a foreign country, a foreign culture, a foreign religion, a foreign civilization. The President thought it would be cheap and quick and he was wrong. The long occupation and meddling just inflames hatred for America. Come home soon, replace your president and ask God (and Iraq) or forgiveness.
Ron Burke, Ottawa, Canada
We had no right to run into Iraq thinking we knew all. I completely agree that "what happens in Iraq will have profound consequences for the west." As an American soldier, I am proud of my country and the good it attempts to do worldwide based on the democratic, founding principles. But when we are led by those who are corrupted or blinded, dire consequences will result. I apologize for our blindness and ignorance. May God's will be done.
Michelle, Macon, GA
My personal opinion is that invasion of Iraq and
consequent war shouldn' t the right choice putting aside
the moral rights and excuses for terrorism attack in
USA see terrible events twin towers occurred on
September, 11 United States President Mr Bush before
taking sudded decision in name of America's interest
and safety he should had to be more prudent and calm
and give priority first to American power, property applied,
and combined with thoughtful planning and use of wise
clever diplomacy and he surely could be able to have had
things under control by now, on the contrary he strongly
wanted to achieve all what his father previous President
Bush senjor wwe do not know for any reasons left
invasion during first 1991's Iraqui first War uncompleteded
because during that War thegoal should had to reach
Baghdad with terrestrial American troops and to defeat
and arrest Suddam Hussein definitely and stop his
invasion in Kuwait and encourage settle democracy.
Alfredo Pontillo, Genoa, ITALY
"Or using corrupt US contractors rather than local workers, which could have employed a good number of young men who are instead unemployed and therefore ripe for the insurgents to recruit?"
I am currently in Iraq as a memeber of the US Army. I have to deal with a policy known as "Iraqi First"; which means anything we need to buy commercially needs to go through Iraqi contractors before we can go elsewhere. Let me say that I am not against this policy in theory.
I am, however, against this policy in practice. We are handcuffed to wait several weeks to get quotes back from Iraqi vendors, and those quotes are typically well over 25% what it would cost us to go elsewhere. When we do pay the inflated cost, it is typical that 10% of what was purchased is non-functional.
I would much rather see that extra money go towards things such as water treatment plants, schools, etc. Sadly, this policy is a waste.
Dan, An Nasiriyah, Iraq
"If anything is responsible for the way this war has gone it is the media."
Do your really believe that? You don't think it has anything to do with invading another country without the slightest understanding of the ethnic makeup of said country, nor of the hated between the various groups? Or not having a plan to deal with the violence which was widely predicted because you thought everything would be hunky dory? Or failing to provide security for civilians, without which nothing is possible? Or using corrupt US contractors rather than local workers, which could have employed a good number of young men who are instead unemployed and therefore ripe for the insurgents to recruit? Or failing to realize (even now) that the iraqi "unity" doesn't want a unified, "civilized" iraq which respects minority rights? Or failing to adapt to changing circumstances on the group, and insisting on sticking with failed strategies because changing them might be seen as failure? Just a thought.
Bill, Greenwich, CT, USA
Vivica and Steve
What is responsible for the way this war has gone is the political confusion and lack of clarity regarding desired outcomes, botched military execution on a strategic and tactical level and a wholly deplorable lack of planning for the aftermath.
Putting aside the moral rights and wrongs of the situation, American power, properly applied, and combined with thoughtful planning and clever diplomacy could have had things under control by now, but instead we have a powderkeg - courtesy of Messrs Cheney, Bush and Rumsfeld et al.
Blaming the media is a fatuous and stupid exercise in scapegoating by people who know they have backed the wrong horse.
US army = the latter day "lions led by donkeys" - and the donkey's apologists!
Homer, London,
Isolationism often works. Pull out our troops, defend our borders, keep economic and social ties, but do not help the unappreciative. Work on our country and allow the civil war to go. Allow their long-standing religious and cultural arguments to work themselves out. These people have been warring for centuries. Allow them to erradicate themselves.
Josh, E. Greenwich, RI, USA
Wwell'ah that there litt'le cowpok's is ah mightay big mess'yah done got'ya sellfs inta. Them there Iraqi cow'boys ain't runn'n fer tha hills when ole mas'sa come run'n withta gun. I guess they figur'ed out that they was alreadi on their own land and not mas'sahs! Why dont yu boys come on home now so we can continue our little race, drug and poverty war that you were losin when yah run over ther thinkn you was go'n on vacation...Maybe even ole Al Qauda will even follow yah on back here, then maybe we can finish them ole dogs once'ah fer all. Then yah can start a terrer war on Rap Music, which might get yah some real volunteers since them rappers are extremist and snots!
Dyke Vondale Davis, San Francisco, S.F. California
Gen. Petraeus has been given an impossible job. No "surge" of troops into Iraq could ever succeed so long as the US and UK allow Iran and Syria to continue to arm, fund and infiltrate "jihadists" into Iraq. Too bad. The Iraqi people deserved better than this. We have failed them and ourselves. What happens in Iraq will have profound consequences for the west.
Rajah, Lyon, France
Rajah, Lyon, France
Finally, a piece that states the facts and does not just spout off anti-Bush sensationalist statements.
A side note, 2/3 Americans may say they are in favor of withdrawal from Iraq, but 2/3 Americans would not even be able to point out Iraq on a world map.
Brian B, Jacksonville, Florida / USA
Vivica,
I couldn't agree more. The left and their liberal camp followers will in the end cause thousands of casualties of innocent people by running from the terrorists. The leadership of the democratic party consists of old men and post menopausal old bags that simply don't have the guts to win, and have a policy of hating Bush and nothing else.
Steve, Oro Valley, Arizona
If anything is responsible for the way this war has gone it is the media. From day one they have done everything to find fault, bash Bush and bash America. What has been reported by the media has been music to the ears of terrorists worldwide, empowering them and telling them they are right and the US is wrong and bad. The media is dominated by bitter, leftist, hatemongers whose egos and ill-informed iealism will be the finish of the western civilised world as we know it.
Vivica, London, England
I"m writing on May 19, and I note the date on this Times story is May 21. I'd say somebody's clock is not running out.
It is debatable that the situation in Iraq would worsen should the US leave. More likely there will a population exchange followed by a split into Kurdistan in the north and Shiistan in the south, with the Sunnis left to fend for themselves.
Perhaps there will be a temporary increase in bloodshed, but that will lead to stability.
The important outcome is that Iraqis will be able to choose a country or countries according to their wishes rather than according to models western idealists are trying to cram down their throats. That is the number one vital and necessary condition for peace and stability.
Arik Silverman, Milwaukee, USA/WI
While myself and many others concede that leaving Iraq will make things worse, nobody has offered or even discussed the immediate problem of HOW DO WE SUSTAIN A WAR OF THIS MAGNITUDE WITH OUR FORCES STRAINED AND OUR ECONOMY DRAINED.
You all speak of "staying the course"...HOW??? We can't keep our military on the ground inevitably. If you think talk of a timetable emboldens the enemy, how bold do you think it is making them to know that we weill eventually run out of money and manpower at a tremendous cost to human lives.
So...I have to ask...does the "stick it out" strategy actually translate to "Last American Soldier Standing"?
That is a strategy I cannot accept.
Theresa, Los Angeles,
Can we agree at least on this? Can we not observe that the longer the occupation has continued, the greater the atomization of Iraq? For example, the Shiia parties and militias now are often in opposition one to another, and we read that the influence not to say control of Muktada al-Sadr has decreased. While some Sunni tribal leaders in Anbar province have of late cooperated with the occupation armies, is this a tactical move to gain local advantage against al-qaeda elements, or some heartfelt change of mind? Not to mention the two million Sunnis that have fled the country altogether. It seems to me that the longer the occupation, the greater the chaos. I think that only the Iraqis can sort this out, and whatever will come can only be sorted out after western armies have left Iraq.
tarquinis, Seattle , USA
Obviously the author here had to fill his bad news for Iraq quota for today with this article. I think it was only Tuesday of this week when another Times reporter harped on the delay in getting the other 14,000 U.S. troops in place to complete the surge. However this author claims the troops are "nearly in place" Oh well...as they say...figures lie...and liars figure. But now we suddenly hear about the militant Turks. This is a new twist. I'm somewhat of a news junkie, and in addition to reading and viewing American papers, periodicals, and television broadcasts I always end the day with a reading of the Times. Never have I heard anything about the Turks. Not since the the begining of the most recent Iraq war anyway, when it was merely pointed out they didn't like the Kurds. So suddenly..this is an issue? My gut feeling. There hasn't been a report of a car bombing in Iraq for the last couple of days so this author had to fill his bad news quota with abstract thoughts.
Murph, Madisonville, USA/KY