Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv
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THREE Israeli divisions comprising 20,000 troops are on standby, ready for a full-scale invasion of the Gaza Strip as Hamas militants continue to fire salvos of rockets into Israel.
A cabinet meeting in Jerusalem today will test whether there is the political will for an onslaught that is likely to be costly both in casualties from the Israeli Defence Forces and for the Palestinian civilian population.
Yesterday Israeli aircraft fired missiles towards Gaza City and the towns of Beit Hanoun and Jabalya, killing four people and bringing to 24 the number of Palestinians who have died in airstrikes in the past week. The rival Hamas and Fatah factions reached a ceasefire agreement after a week of internecine fighting. Earlier truces had collapsed within hours and it was not clear if this one would hold.
The Israeli army’s high command is recommending an attack to crush Hamas “before Gaza turns into another southern Lebanon”, said a source. But they are opposed by elements in the security forces who argue that the timing is premature.
The battle plan is to cut Gaza into three parts, seal its borders and crush Hamas by flooding its towns and villages with troops in an operation intended to last no more than a week. Israel would rely on speed, superior technology, better training and intelligence and sheer force of numbers to smash Hamas.
Ehud Olmert, the prime minister, already weakened by an inquiry report that highlighted his shortcomings during last summer’s war in southern Lebanon, must now decide whether to go into battle for the second time in less than 12 months, something none of his predecessors has done. “The Lebanon war was my Bay of Pigs,” Olmert has been quoted as saying, referring to the disastrous US-funded invasion of Cuba in 1961. “Now I’m waiting for my Cuban missile crisis.”
Few believe that Olmert has the gumption to take Israel back to war, but his hand might be forced by heavy casualties from a rocket attack or by a threatened resumption of Hamas suicide bombings within Israel. Olmert and his senior ministers remain unconvinced that their armed forces have fully recovered their former efficiency.
The generals insist that they are ready to invade. Earlier this year in the remote Negev desert, three army divisions completed a dress rehearsal for an incursion into Gaza. A giant Palestinian “refugee camp” was built to help the infantry to train in door-to-door search methods in the tightly packed Palestinian camps.
The last time they attempted such an attack was five years ago in the West Bank refugee camp of Jenin. Many houses were demolished and 23 Israeli soldiers and 52 Palestinians were killed. Both sides have learnt lessons from that onslaught.
Since its unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005, Israel has lost control of the territory’s southern border with Egypt. Tons of explosives and arms have been smuggled in through tunnels. Hamas talks of turning Gaza into a Middle Eastern Stalingrad where huge casualties could be inflicted on both sides in the event of an invasion.
With Israeli connivance, about 500 well-trained Palestinian Authority soldiers were rushed from Egypt into Gaza last week to help their Fatah comrades who are fighting for their lives against the more powerful Hamas militants.
“We should have no illusions,” said an Israeli defence source. “Once we step in, Fatah will not stand on Gaza’s pavements to cheer us on. They will join Hamas in the fighting and postpone their battles for later.” The resumption of Hamas rocket attacks has sparked anger among ordinary Israelis. The Hamas militants – who targeted Sderot, a low-income town with high unemployment, in the hope of provoking Israel – chose their target wisely.
“I want to ask you a question,” said Yossi Ohana, a Sderot resident, to Rafi Eitan, the Israeli minister, last week. “As a second-class Moroccan Jew, I want to ask you would the Israeli government have tolerated seven years of rockets falling on Tel Aviv before smashing Gaza to rubble?” The minister, who lives in one of the most affluent suburbs of Tel Aviv, remained silent.
The Israelis are expected to go for a lightning strike aimed at killing as many militants as possible in the first few days before pulling out. “We won’t have more than a week for the fighting,” said a military source familiar with the plan.
On Friday Tzipi Livni, the Israeli foreign minister, summoned the diplomatic corps to outline the Hamas threat. “We want peace in the Middle East,” she said. “But sometimes the only way to maintain normal life in Gaza is to put pressure on the militants.”
Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the opposition and the most popular Israeli politician, has no doubt about it. “The attacks on our citizens are horrible,” he said in Sderot last week. “The government should launch an attack to stop the rockets.”
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