Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv
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THREE Israeli divisions comprising 20,000 troops are on standby, ready for a full-scale invasion of the Gaza Strip as Hamas militants continue to fire salvos of rockets into Israel.
A cabinet meeting in Jerusalem today will test whether there is the political will for an onslaught that is likely to be costly both in casualties from the Israeli Defence Forces and for the Palestinian civilian population.
Yesterday Israeli aircraft fired missiles towards Gaza City and the towns of Beit Hanoun and Jabalya, killing four people and bringing to 24 the number of Palestinians who have died in airstrikes in the past week. The rival Hamas and Fatah factions reached a ceasefire agreement after a week of internecine fighting. Earlier truces had collapsed within hours and it was not clear if this one would hold.
The Israeli army’s high command is recommending an attack to crush Hamas “before Gaza turns into another southern Lebanon”, said a source. But they are opposed by elements in the security forces who argue that the timing is premature.
The battle plan is to cut Gaza into three parts, seal its borders and crush Hamas by flooding its towns and villages with troops in an operation intended to last no more than a week. Israel would rely on speed, superior technology, better training and intelligence and sheer force of numbers to smash Hamas.
Ehud Olmert, the prime minister, already weakened by an inquiry report that highlighted his shortcomings during last summer’s war in southern Lebanon, must now decide whether to go into battle for the second time in less than 12 months, something none of his predecessors has done. “The Lebanon war was my Bay of Pigs,” Olmert has been quoted as saying, referring to the disastrous US-funded invasion of Cuba in 1961. “Now I’m waiting for my Cuban missile crisis.”
Few believe that Olmert has the gumption to take Israel back to war, but his hand might be forced by heavy casualties from a rocket attack or by a threatened resumption of Hamas suicide bombings within Israel. Olmert and his senior ministers remain unconvinced that their armed forces have fully recovered their former efficiency.
The generals insist that they are ready to invade. Earlier this year in the remote Negev desert, three army divisions completed a dress rehearsal for an incursion into Gaza. A giant Palestinian “refugee camp” was built to help the infantry to train in door-to-door search methods in the tightly packed Palestinian camps.
The last time they attempted such an attack was five years ago in the West Bank refugee camp of Jenin. Many houses were demolished and 23 Israeli soldiers and 52 Palestinians were killed. Both sides have learnt lessons from that onslaught.
Since its unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005, Israel has lost control of the territory’s southern border with Egypt. Tons of explosives and arms have been smuggled in through tunnels. Hamas talks of turning Gaza into a Middle Eastern Stalingrad where huge casualties could be inflicted on both sides in the event of an invasion.
With Israeli connivance, about 500 well-trained Palestinian Authority soldiers were rushed from Egypt into Gaza last week to help their Fatah comrades who are fighting for their lives against the more powerful Hamas militants.
“We should have no illusions,” said an Israeli defence source. “Once we step in, Fatah will not stand on Gaza’s pavements to cheer us on. They will join Hamas in the fighting and postpone their battles for later.” The resumption of Hamas rocket attacks has sparked anger among ordinary Israelis. The Hamas militants – who targeted Sderot, a low-income town with high unemployment, in the hope of provoking Israel – chose their target wisely.
“I want to ask you a question,” said Yossi Ohana, a Sderot resident, to Rafi Eitan, the Israeli minister, last week. “As a second-class Moroccan Jew, I want to ask you would the Israeli government have tolerated seven years of rockets falling on Tel Aviv before smashing Gaza to rubble?” The minister, who lives in one of the most affluent suburbs of Tel Aviv, remained silent.
The Israelis are expected to go for a lightning strike aimed at killing as many militants as possible in the first few days before pulling out. “We won’t have more than a week for the fighting,” said a military source familiar with the plan.
On Friday Tzipi Livni, the Israeli foreign minister, summoned the diplomatic corps to outline the Hamas threat. “We want peace in the Middle East,” she said. “But sometimes the only way to maintain normal life in Gaza is to put pressure on the militants.”
Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the opposition and the most popular Israeli politician, has no doubt about it. “The attacks on our citizens are horrible,” he said in Sderot last week. “The government should launch an attack to stop the rockets.”
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Israel helped create Hamas as a fundamentalist religious movement to drain support from the more secular Fatah. Now, after placing Arafat under house arrest, picking which of the succeeding elected Fatah governments it would decide to deal with, and making Fatah irrelevant, it is supporting Fatah to undercut Hamas, enjoying the firefights between the two movements. Next step: Gaza will be trampled, with death and destruction for both Gazans and Israelis, while Olmert continues to expand settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the ongoing root of the conflict. We will be told soon who is the "winner."
LatAm, Washington, DC
Where are you referring to Steve ? Perhaps London or miscellaneous other worldwide places ?
Have nice day anyhow in you little dreamworld
Victor Cowen, Malaga, Spain
for how long was jerusalem taken away from moslems last time ....
88 years .. and then it ended .the brutal crusaders had to leave the holy
place and it was saladin back then .... and it will be someone else
this time too ... remember how saladin took the the city ...
it will happen again ..just a matter of time
frien, Los Angeles, usa
The Palestinian people are treated worse than dogs, trying to live a life in the biggest prison in the world. I am truly stunned the world does not see this and act.
If people are prepared to strap a bomb to themselves and blow themselves up you will never defeat them.
And Joe, Manchester ......
No, Israel does not have a right to be there, it needs to learn if it wants to survive, in the same way South Africa learn't and ended apartide.
Steve, Birkenhead, Merseyside
And more Palestiniains will die, making them feel more victimised and resentful and violent, and so it will continue until Palestinian cease their 50 year old hatred of Israel.
The good thing about this situation is that Israel is massively more powerful, representing a stable Westernised democracy.
The bad thing is, Palestinians define themselves with victimhood, resentment, hatred, and insist on violence despite the fact that they suffer more than anyone.
Israel is there, its staying there, has a right to be there, and 50 years later its time the Moslem world accepted this.The Islamic empire died a very long time ago, will never return, and the world is now knock-together multicultural/international where Moslem tribalism has no place. If they want to continue their suffering, no one can stop them. But blaming Israel for self defence, against a 50 year old hostility, starts to get almost boring if the matter were not so serious.
Joe, Manchester,
Uzi is compelled to file regardless if there is a real story. Any Israeli who follows the news knows that the pee-wee cabinet is poised to do something, yet it serves the interest of Israel not to do very much, especially when the 40 odd terrorist groups in Gaza are doing it for them. Therefore, in my opinion, they will increase the targeted preventative operations selected to cause as little civilian casualties as possible. The weak kneed amateur kitchen cabinet are more frightened from world public opinion showing on T.V the innocents victims in Gaza than the wrath of the injured poor, living in Sderot, who pay the heaviest price forthis Islamist terror. It is hard to imagine that the U.K will take hundreds of incoming rockets and not react decisively. It is fashionable to expect Israel to endure the pain and shut-up. There are limits to what Israelis will bear and for this they nominated a new Chief Of Staff, a son of a refugee family who already proved that the IDF will deliver
Van Dola, Los Angeles, usa