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Who is fighting who?
The last two days of fighting in Lebanon have been between the Army and Fatah al-Islam, one of the most feared militant groups in Lebanon's Palestinian refugee camps. Fatah al-Islam is completely opposed by the main Palestinian groups in Lebanon, like the PLO and Hamas, which have agreed to help the Government fight the faction, which is seen as a force for chaos and a real menace in the camps, where thousands of Palestinians live in poor, difficult conditions.
What is Fatah al-Islam?
Fatah al-Islam is a new and extremely dangerous group that appears to be part of the nebulous, loose network of Sunni militants across the Middle East. It declared itself as an organisation last November after breaking off from Fatah al-Initifada, a larger, secular, pro-Syrian Palestinian movement and is led by Chaker al-Absi, a Palestinian from Jordan with links to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the al Qaeda commander killed last year in Iraq.
I was speaking to people close to the group in Tripoli on Saturday and they said that most of its members were Palestinians, but others say it has fighters from all over the Arab world. It is very hard to know, but it is possible that its members are Palestinians from several countries: growing up in camps in Jordan and Saudi Arabia or Lebanon, fighting in Iraq, spending a year or two in Syria and then ending up in Lebanon.
What does the group want?
The precise origins of Fatah al-Islam, and so its aims, are a subject of controversy. The Lebanese Army says the split with Fatah al-Initifada last year was entirely orchestrated by the Syrian security forces and while the group's members may be genuine Islamist extremists, it is being manipulated for the ends of the Syrian regime. It believes the current violence, which began with ambushes and an attack on a Lebanese military patrol in Tripoli yesterday was ordered to unsettle the country for Syria's purposes. The other view, held by the opposition, is that the Government blames every internal problem on Syria and that Fatah al-Islam are just a particularly nasty faction. I am afraid it is as vague as that. Whatever their nationality, I was speaking to a special forces captain today who said that Fatah al-Islam gunmen were fighting to the end, some of them wearing explosive vests and none of them surrendering.
Where is the fighting happening?
The violence is in the north of Lebanon, where most of the country's Sunni population is, and close to the Syrian border. Yesterday's gun battle was in Tripoli while today the operation focused on the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp which is on the coast at the northern outskirts of the city. The Lebanese Army say they have Fatah al-Islam "hermetically sealed" in the camp and would be able to wipe them out, but entering the crowded settlement is fraught with difficulties. Not only would an assault probably cause heavy civilian casualties but Lebanon still abides by a 1969 UN agreement that the country's 12 Palestinian refugee camps can largely govern themselves, officially in return for the camps disarming their militants.
The Government is under some pressure to intervene in the camps, which are seen by many Lebanese as poor and lawless and a breeding ground for terrorists. Many people blame the Palestinians for contributing to the unrest that caused the 1975-1990 civil war and the evolution of armed groups like Fatah al-Islam. Lebanese criminals also flee into the camps, adding to sense of lawlessness, some of them joining these Islamist bands. But the general consensus is that a solution for the camps and their problems will not be found until some wider settlement is reached in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Is this part of a wider crisis?
The battle with Fatah al-Islam is in itself an isolated incident. There is a broad consensus is that these are bad people and they must be got rid of. They do not have much support beyond a few Sunnis in the north. But the violence does seem to verify a fear that Lebanon is about to enter a period of instability.
We are heading for a climax in the attempt to prosecute the killers of Rafik al-Hariri, the former prime minister assassinated in Beirut in 2004. The Lebanese Government, which blames Syria for orchestrating the killing — a charge that Syria denies — has gone through months of political tussling to apply to the UN Security Council to set up an international tribunal and that could take shape in the coming weeks. There is a lot of doom and gloom that if the tribunal goes ahead and the accusations against Syria continue there could be a rash of instability: bombings, assassinations and unrest. There was also a large bomb in east Beirut last night that killed two people in the first attack of its kind in many months. People are drawing the conclusion that this could be the beginning of a hot summer.
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