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Iran is expanding its nuclear programme and the ability of international inspectors to monitor its activities is deteriorating, according to a confidential report from the world's nuclear watchdog.
The White House described the latest International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report as “a laundry list of Iran’s continued defiance of the international community" while diplomats expressed concern that Tehran's nuclear capability was now reaching the point of no return.
Nine months after the UN Security Council first ordered Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment, and one day before a second deadline to halt the programme, the IAEA admitted that Tehran was now closer to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's boast of "industrial scale" uranium enrichment than before.
Equally troubling for the IAEA was its diminishing power to monitor Iran's nuclear activities, with the agency's director, Mohammed ElBaradei admitting that inspectors have a “deteriorating" understanding of unexplored aspects of the programme.
“Iran has not agreed to any of the required transparency measures, which are essential for the clarification of certain aspects of the scope and nature of its nuclear programme,” said the four-page confidential report, which was swiftly leaked to news agencies.
“Iran has not suspended its enrichment-related activities. Iran has continued with the operation of its pilot fuel enrichment plant and with construction of its (planned underground industrial) enrichment plant."
The report will add further pressure to the UN Security Council to toughen the sanctions it has already ordered against Iran, which include limits on the movement of its nuclear scientists and a ban on financial investment in non-development projects in the country. A third UN resolution is expected in the coming days.
Nicholas Sarkozy, the new French President, has already suggested that he will support stronger measures against Tehran: “I for my part think one should not hesitate to toughen the sanctions,” he told the German monthly magazine Cicero.
But there are fears that Iran's uranium enrichment capacities -- it is now overcome technical problems to run more than 1,300 centrifuges at its main Natanz plant -- have changed the diplomatic landscape, meaning that some negotiators believe total suspension of the programme is now unrealistic.
Dr ElBaradei angered the Bush Administration earlier this month by telling The New York Times that the UN's demands for suspension appeared to have been "overtaken by events" and that it was arguable that Tehran should be allowed to retain some enrichment activities.
"We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich,'' he told the newspaper. ''From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that's a fact.''
The US reiterated its stance today, with Nicholas Burns, the Under Secretary of State, who is leading the America's Iran strategy saying: “We are not going to agree to accept limited enrichment, to accept that 1,300 centrifuges can continue spinning at their plant at Natanz."
Despite its recent advances, Iran is still believed to be some way off from producing weapons grade nuclear material. Right now its centrifuges are believed to be capable of producing 5 per cent enriched uranium -- sufficient for the peaceful purposes that Iran insists it is working towards -- but far from the 90 per cent level needed to make a bomb.
To make one bomb's worth of material, Iran would need to run around 3,000 centrifuges -- more than twice the current number but a scale thought to be achievable within months -- for a year. It would then face the considerable challenge of enriching the fuel further and mounting it on a serviceable weapon. Analysts believe that to achieve the later stages of enrichment Iran would have to expel the UN's weapon's inspectors, as North Korea did in 2002.
Today's report did nothing to reduce tensions in the Gulf today, already heavily strained by persistent US accusations of clandestine Iranian activity in Iraq. The US Navy mounted a massive military exercise off the coast of Iran today, involving 17,000 personnel in one of the largest concentrations of force in the region since the 2003 invasion. Oil prices climbed towards $70 on world markets on the news.
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Its a bit late, 15 years too late. The chances are good they already have the bomb. This could be the trump card they haven't showed yet. They were wrong about IRAQ but there is a real danger with Iran.
Arthur, s/middlesbrough, UK
Sir,
How many nations across the world have Iranians invaded? The policies of the Israel 1strs has brought us nothing but trouble. I am sure that the existential fantasies of Hitler will be revived, as with every other tinpot regime. We must free ourselves from becoming a paranoid ghetto, & embark upon international methods of compliance. For every Ahmadinejad we have a racist Deputy PM Avigdor Lieberman & countless other hotheads. We need to revert to an cool, calm & collected stoic appraisal, & not fall prey to Hollywood hysteria, behaving as members of the Blairite 51st state.
SC, London, United Kingdom
It's interesting to consider how the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan have given U.S. war planners open air corridors on both the east and west sides of Iran. Unchallenged overflight is a great tactical advantage for surprise and greatly increases the possible directions from which air strikes on Iran may originate. If U.S. air bases within Iraq and Afghanistan were utilized, a cruise missile / bomber strike could be off the ground and over targets inside Iran in a matter of minutes with sorties originating from multiple directions. Less time in the air equals less time for detection. Shorter flight times allow larger bomb loads. More directions yields more confusion.
To suggest that Bush didn't have Iran on his mind when he made the case to invade Iraq is a bit self-deceiving, I'd say. Iran has been the real rogue element in the Middle East for years. In my opinion, Iraq and Afghanistan are simply side shows, pretexts for establishing beachheads and precursors to the main event.
Thomas, Atlanta, GA, USA
We in the west have a choice - a nasty war now that we will win to destroy the mullahs and their programme; or a future with a mid-east dominated by a nuclear armed Iran that can provide cover for their proxys in the middle east and overseas, probably supplying them with extremely deadly weapons.
In other words, there's no choice - every day we do nothing they get stronger. We need to take them out now.
TD, London, UK
What the American needs to realise that the time and appetite for further war is passed. Repeatedly passing sanctions is not getting the desired effect, and if anything strengthens the resolve of the Iranian government to press ahead.
At a time when we (UK) have said that nuclear power is a critical part of our energy processing future, what right do we have to say that Iran is not entitled to the same technology. After all the furore over the EU imposing a ban on the sale of goods in lbs and ounce, can you imagine it if we were forced to depend on France or Germany to fuel this country's nuclear power plants.
The US needs to realise that Iran having nuclear power is inevitable. The question is whether they want Iran to get this ability now or after being bombed?. Which would be more desirable?
I think it's pretty safe to say that after being bombed Iran will almost definately pursue nuclear weapons to prevent such an action happening again.
MXR, cheshire,
The USA can rattle its sabres frightfully, but Iran is astute enough to see that Uncle Sam is standing alone. Britain may be posing belligerently at Sam"s side but it seems improbable the Iranians will take us seriously after the Mr. Bean fiasco.
Piggy Kruger, Bridgwater , UK