Palestinian dreams of a viable, independent state appear to be fragmenting into the violent reality of two mini-fiefdoms.

Most people simply want an end to the chaos, and a unity government in fact as well as name. What they are facing is the prospect of an Islamist “Hamasstan” in Gaza and a secular “Fatahstan” in the West Bank.

Hamas emerged two decades ago out of the Muslim Brotherhood movement, and fed on Palestinian despair at the lack of progress towards peace with Israel. It has gradually eclipsed the old guard of left-wing Palestinian Liberation Organisation revolutionaries – seen by many as corrupt yesterday’s men who compromised with the Israelis – with a heady blend of God, suicide bombing and a refusal to acknowledge the Jewish state’s right to exist.

Hamas and Fatah are radically different. The former promotes an austere, Islamic philosophy that governs every aspect of life, while the latter reflects a more liberal, moderate attitude that is rapidly losing currency in many Arab states.

Blockade drains life from Gaza

The movement of goods into Gaza had been intermittent at best since Hamas won Palestinian elections early last year

Multimedia

• Pictures: Johnston is released

• Video: unarmed protester confronts gunman in Gaza

• Pictures: life in Gaza

Background

• Q&A: Hamas and Gaza

• 97 days and counting for BBC's man in Gaza

• Now war is with the enemy within

• The little girl trapped by a quirk of war

Related Links

• Now war is with the enemy within

• Hamas orders rivals to surrender

Hamas was founded by Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, who spent decades working for the support of ordinary Palestinians by providing food hand-outs, kindergarden and medical services at a time when the secular leadership of the PLO – of which Fatah, led by Yassir Arafat, was the dominant party – was in exile, its leaders often accumulating great wealth.

While much of Fatah’s power ebbed with the death of Arafat, Hamas has gone from strength to strength since Sheikh Yassin was killed in an Israeli air raid in 2004. Washington, which once saw Arafat as an obstacle to peace, has recently been trying to strengthen Fatah’s hand against the rising power of its Islamist rival. But such support has helped to undermine the credibility of Fatah, with Hamas gleefully accusing it of being a foreign stooge.

A key battle has been over the security forces. Hamas formed its own police force in the Gaza Strip, while the US supplied arms and equipment to secularist Fatah fighters, much of which has fallen into Hamas control.

Consequences of two Palestinian ‘states’

— Halt of negotiations and collapse of the peace process. Israel fears that Hamas will continue to refuse to recognise the Jewish state and use Gaza as a base to rearm and attack Israeli towns and citizens. Gaza would acquire pariah status, imperilling Western aid

— Likely imposition of Islamic laws in Gaza, although Hamas insists that – unlike the Taleban and al-Qaeda – it supports the education of women and promotes religious tolerance

— Israeli pragmatists who favour a two-state solution are robbed of a Palestinian negotiating partner. Israeli hardliners calling for Gaza to be reoccupied two years after Ariel Sharon ordered settlers and troops to leave

— An independent Hamas fiefdom would encourage the more radical groups throughout the Middle East

— Fatah forces loyal to warlords such as Muhammad Dahlan are likely to try to destabilise a Hamas authority

— Fatah and its armed wing, the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, are certain to target Hamas leaders and institutions in the West Bank

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