Bronwen Maddox: World Briefing
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The next five days will show whether President Ahmadinejad gets what appears to be his wish: a growing row with the West over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Despite deep unease within the regime about his taste for confrontation, the chances are that he will.
There is good news for those who want Iran to back down: factions within the top leadership are now fighting with each other about whether to risk defiance of the United Nations Security Council. The bad news is that none of them, even the so-called moderates, appears to want to give up uranium enrichment, the work that could give Iran nuclear weapons.
The worse news is that the countries trying to curb Tehran are even more divided among themselves than are Iranian leaders. On Monday a meeting in Brussels of the five permanent members of the Security Council may well show that the US, Britain and France do not have support from China and Russia for more sanctions, and will have to try their best alone.
That meeting will follow reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN watchdog, and Javier Solana, the European Union foreign policy chief. They are about to say whether they think Iran has disclosed as much as it is obliged about its nuclear work. Both are expected to say that it has not, Solana the more bluntly.
It is no surprise that the divisions within the Iranian regime, always there, and getting noisier, have burst into the open under the pressure of these deadlines. On Monday, Ahmadinejad railed at critics who wanted Iran to take a less inflammatory approach. He didn’t name his targets, beyond calling them “domestic elements”, but it would be fair to take this as a gibe at Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former President, and his allies.
Rafsanjani, a figure so deeply woven into business and political life that Ahmadinejad has been unable to brush him away, is often described as a moderate, but that is only in comparison with Ahmadinejad. But whether out of desire to protect his commercial interests from sanctions or the loftier pursuit of national interest, as he claims, he has urged him to take the heat out of this row.
He has had some support. A month ago Ahmadinejad pushed out Ali Larijani, the chief nuclear negotiator and another moderate (in tone at least), but Larijani was reinstated within days. That is a sign that the President does face constraints. He may be the single, belligerent face of Iran abroad, but clerics and pragmatic politicians have been alarmed by his eruptions.
Nor is his popular base as strong as it was. He was elected in June 2005 for promising to put the rewards of the oil boom on the tables of the poor, but many feel he has failed. Iran’s inability to refine enough of its own oil means that it imports 40 per cent of its petrol, and rising oil prices are a mixed blessing. Its lack of refineries reflects the bite of past sanctions and offers hope that its nuclear work will not go smoothly either.
But none of Ahmadinejad’s critics is pushing the regime to drop enrichment entirely, still the West’s target. They have little reason to make that concession; in the past week China has reaffirmed its support.
Chinese officials said yesterday that their drive to invest in Iran’s biggest undeveloped oilfield in return for gas had been slowed down by tough negotiations, not the prospect of more sanctions. If China continues to resist the push for sanctions, led by the US, Britain and France, then those three countries, perhaps joined by Germany, may have to go it alone.
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Having nuclear bomb, by itself, is the biggest threat, without even claiming to attack other countries. Iran has not developed any single nuclear bomb so far and will not, at least according to their claim. Even if they intend to build it, how they can do it by IAEA's strict inspections? Why some countries that already have nbs and are the real threat to the peace insist that Iran is developing nb? IAEA's reports indicate that there is no evidence to conclude that Iran's developing nb and they will keep their Inspectors to have all questions answered. Now if IAEA's reports are not credible for USA and some others, how they can be sure that any nuclear activity in any country is peaceful? Who are they to decide to sanction or attack to other countries?
Don't forget that Iran has been sanctioned and is now being threatened to military actions by the nations that have nbs themselves and are proud of having nbs.
Aidin, York, UK
KC in Boston is talking rot, not fact. FACT is that when a country chooses to sign the NPT, it exchanges the right to develop nuclear weapons in return for technical assistance from the IAEA to develop civilian nuclear power. A condition of this aid is that it allows verification that it is not developing nuclear weapons.
By obstructing the IAEA, Iran is in violation of the terms of the NPT which it chose to sign.
Israel has chosen not to sign the NPT and as a result gets no help from the IAEA and therefore does not have to open itself up to external inspections.
Whichever side of the argument you take, the FACT is that it is the right of every nation state to choose which treaties it ratifies and which it does not.
Ian, London, UK
It's ironical how countries that have armed themselves to the teeth with nuclear weapons don't want others to have the same. Some of these countries have even gone the extra mile in using the bomb on other countries. These same countires even threaten the use of nuclear weaposn to stop others have nuclear weapons. I'm not sure if it can get any dumber!
Goldman, London, UK
To James Hacksworth,UK
If Israel and US are nuclear armed maniac why have not they nuked Iran already. It is true that Iran is coward enough not to use the weapon, but they can give it to proxy terrorist-maniacs right now living in your home town. Please expect the terrorists to disregard your kind and precious sympathy..
Dave, Rutland,
Paul of Waterloo what planet are you on mate? The minute that Israel suspects that Iran is on the point of making a nuclear weapon, it will bomb Iran; result = 3rd World War.
Ben Genevieve, Perth, Western Australia
Ahmadinejad says he will wipe Israel off the map according to the translation of the Iranian state controlled broadcasting company..
Israel has the bomb, but won't even admit it has it.
It has never threatened to wipe any country off the map.
Seems to me to be a significant difference.
W. E. Brand, Alexandria, , VA
Does nobody ever stop to think that maybe a nuclear armed Iran could be a good thing for the West? See if they want to join Nato, then we got all their nucleur weapons for FREE!
paul, waterloo,
Why don't we try this? The US should, unilaterally, inform the world that from 1st january 2008, it will confiscate, without compensation, any oiltankers, and their cargo, leaving any Iranian port. It will also bomb (requiring one cruise missile) any Iranian pipeline exporting oil. Fuss inside the UN? OK, the US should leave the UN. (Get the picture..we mean business) Couple of awkward months..oil at $150, lots of hot air from Tehran, Moscow, Beijing. But how long will the present regime in Iran remain in place. The alternative...Bombs on Iran, bombs in Times Square, Trafalgar Square, thousands of soldiers committed. Nice.
David, London,
Ahmadinejad and Bush are mirror images of each other, each trying to please Big Daddy and needling him at the same time. Both are poseurs. All we can hope for is at least some rationality and containment from their respective advisors.
Julia Iskandar, London, England
I fear the biggest divisions in the West are between governments and voters. I sense no general support for the hard line being taken against Iran and dismay at the prospect of militairy action based again on "intelligence".
JE, New Malden, UK
Russia and China will do everything they can to preserve their interest in Iran's oil. That's why they're giving us a hard time. If Iran is attacked, they'll probably provide them with defensive weapons. With Russian and Chinese support, Iran will have their nuclear weapons. Why do you think Ahmadinejad is always photographed smiling? I even remember Mr putin saying "they (Iran) are not scared", during his recent visit to Tehran.
Mohammed, London, UK
A nuclear armed Iran is the only hope for peace in the middle east, I hope they get the bomb and soon. Israel are the threat and Iran is surrounded by the nuclear armed maniac countries of Israel & US occupied middle east. Good luck to Tehran.
James Hacksworth, London,
Who are you to decide which countries are labeled a threat or "terrorist" and incapable of having nuclear arms, if in fact that is the case. The facts are Iran is not violating any NPT terms. The US sat back and allowed Israel to obtain over 400 nuclear warheads. Israel is not a member of the NPT, while illegally "colonizing" Syrian and Palestinian lands.
Who are the terrorists?
Not to mention Pakistan. The US puppet is exploding in their face. The US is currently involved in two illegal invasions. What has Iran done? Don't fall into the neocon/zionist propaganda.
Americans are not going to sit back and watch their hard earned tax dollars go towards another LIE!
KC, boston, ma
I'm sorry. But who just wrote this article? This is something you could expect to find in a sophmore junior college journalism class.
Does this so-called author have any idea of the inner machinations of Iranian domestic policy? If so, what are they?
Jorge, roseville , CA
Good. Time for the west to make a stand. In the end why should free, democratic nations have to rely on the support of communist China and an increasingly autocratic Russia to stop the danger that a nuclear armed Iran would present. It also demonstrates that even if the United Nations security council or the United Nations in general once served a purpose, it has long since passed.
David Lea-Smith, Edinburgh, U.K.