Sarah Baxter, Washington
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For two days in London in February 2004, top American defence and intelligence officials huddled with senior officers from MI6. They were there to discuss Iraq’s missing weapons of mass destruction with General Ihor Smeshko, head of the Ukrainian secret service, but he also had some riveting information to pass on about Iran.
The Iranian regime, Smeshko revealed, was pestering Ukraine, a postSoviet nuclear power, for access to its nuclear technology.
The meeting with MI6 had been arranged by John Shaw, who was the Pentagon’s deputy undersecretary for international technology security.
“There was no doubt that the Iranians were focused on developing a nuclear weapons capability,” Shaw recalled last week. “It wasn’t about keeping the lights burning in Tehran.”
American intelligence agencies startled the world last week by judging “with high confidence” that while Tehran continued to enrich uranium – which could be used for nuclear power or bombs – it had halted its nuclear “weaponisation” programme in 2003, before the MI6 meeting.
The declassified summary of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran not only ran contrary to its insistence two years earlier that Iran was “determined” to develop nuclear weapons, but flew in the face of accepted facts among western intelligence agencies.
President George W Bush, who warned recently that a nuclear-armed Iran could provoke a third world war, was left with a dollop of egg on his face.
When Dick Cheney, the vice-president and leading Iran hawk, was briefed on the about-turn a couple of weeks ago, there was a “pretty vivid exchange” with intelligence officials in the White House, one participant told The New York Times.
According to an intelligence source, Cheney sought to block the NIE’s release, but was overruled.
Vincent Cannistraro, the CIA’s former counterterrorism chief, believes the view expressed by Robert Gates, the defence secretary, and Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, was: “Whatever the intelligence shows, it shows – we won’t influence it, but it should be released.”
In an interview last week, Cheney conceded that “there was a general belief that we all shared that it was important to put it out – that it was not likely to stay classified for long, anyway.” He added, “Everything leaks”, a wry admission of the in-fighting that has divided the Bush administration.
War with Iran now appears to be off the agenda and it will be difficult to persuade the international community to approve harsher United Nations sanctions against Iran. But was American intelligence really fooled for four years? Or is it being undermined from within?
Some American officials believe the NIE’s findings could present a historic opportunity to open direct negotiations with Tehran.
Robert Kagan, an influential neoconservative writer, argued that “with its policy tools broken, the Bush administration can sit around isolated for the next year. Or it can seize the initiative, and do the next administration a favour, by opening direct talks”.
But other neoconservatives and Iran hawks mounted a ferocious counterattack, insisting the report was payback by a trio of antiBush former state department officials, who opposed the Iraq war and sanctions on Iran.
David Wurmser, Cheney’s former Middle East adviser, charged: “One has to look at the authors of this report to judge how much it can really be banked on.”
The “guilty men” were named as Thomas Fingar, Kenneth Brill and Vann Van Diepen, all now in top US intelligence posts, who had seethed at Bush policies for years and were said to have executed a triumphant revenge.
One “very senior intelligence official” who was privy to the same classified information on Iran described the NIE’s conclusions as “a piece of crap”, according to Jed Babbin, a senior defence official under the first President George Bush. “The ‘high confidence’ that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons programme was not justified by the data he had seen,” Babbin said.
Yet there was an infusion of new information about Iran that persuaded all 16 American intelligence agencies to back the NIE.
Israeli sources told The Sunday Times that a key part of the jigsaw was supplied by General Ali Reza Asghari, 63, a former Iranian deputy defence minister who is believed to have defected after disappearing from his hotel room in Istanbul in February.
The Iranian regime accused Washington of kidnapping him, but western intelligence sources say he is in America of his own accord. His debriefing was so secretive that information went directly to the director of the CIA, rather than to senior officials. “People who would normally know, and should know, are completely out of the loop,” said one informed source.
American intelligence agencies also received a trove of information last summer, including intercepts of Iranian phone calls by GCHQ, the British listening station, which suggested that Iranian military officials were angered by a decision in late 2003 to halt a project to design nuclear weapons. The suspicion that the revelations might be a complex hoax were discounted.
After the report was released, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s president, exulted that a “fatal blow” had been delivered to America’s war party.
Yet some American intelligence experts remain baffled by the black and white picture presented by the NIE. Former CIA official Paul Pillar, who helped to compile the 2005 NIE on Iran, believes the difference with the 2007 report has been greatly exaggerated.
“It’s described as a dramatic 180-degree reversal but it’s not. The key ‘pacing element’ about when Iran is going to get a nuclear weapon is the uranium enrichment issue and that hasn’t changed,” he said.
As before, the NIE suggests “with moderate confidence” that the Iranians could be capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon by 2010-2015.
“You can differ with the president on his policy direction but the issue remains the same,” said Pillar. He maintains that the intelligence community has “shot itself in the foot” by oversimplifying the debate.
Additional reporting: Marie Colvin and Kayvon Biouki, Tehran
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In most instances I would say "give peace a chance." But when it comes to preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons, I think our wiser motto, as unfortunate as it may be, is "give war a chance."
Scott, Houston, Texas, USA
Clearly the intelligence chiefs were scared to death of what team Bush might be about to do.
Can you think of any other time in history when the joint intelligence services have united to remove the power of their own executive government to declare a new war?
It's astonishing.
John McD, San Francisco, ca, USA
So Iran "stopped" its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Then Iran ramped up its enrichment and plutonium projects. Hmmm. Maybe they stopped because they didn't have the bomb making materials--enriched uranium or plutonium--they needed to proceed? Until or unless I see convincing information to the contrary I, for one, will remain suspicious. This seems entirely too coincidental to me.
Brent, Lawrence, USA
Brent Garner, Lawrence, USA
Prove to me that Hitler was planning to attack Poland.
Chamberlain's favorite intelligence people said that Hitler was not a threat.
Patrick Henry, Bristol, UK
A primary concern for the world is the ability of the americans to drag us all into war.
it's clear that if the americans were taken down 5/6 pegs it would be a much better world.
we will see much moreof the invasions of countries by the us, they have 4% of the population and consume 25% of the worlds natural resources.
Billie, toronto, Canadaada
In a new book I am writing I have a chapter devoted to emotional thinking. This would be where people have an emotional charged set of axioms which by nature (and definition) are PARTIAL truths. So when a piece of information comes out they are carefully selective of what to parrot to their friends in their respective echo chambers. So of course the "Bush lied, people died" set naturally will ignore certain inconvenient facts related to this story...like who issued the report and their true motivation. Their sources are suspect at best. Hello.. this report was POLLITICALLY motivated. And it seems the same sort were calling the CIA a bunch of morons for the "no brainer" WMD report on Iraq. But now, the CIA is the omnipotent force for truth in the world? Please!
In the US we call this the "bumper sticker mentality. So congrats to most of the above for confirming my theories about the average persons lack of logical rigor!!
JLK
JLK, Portland,
Iran will not accept the American dollar as currency to buy their oil. Neither would Hussein. Syria should be next in the deadly sights of the American war machine.
Barney, MERVILLE,
Regarding the most recent NIE reports, I take exception to the above article as to the characterization of the guilty and innocent parties.
David Wurmser is a well known Zionist. Much if not most of the Iraq fiasco is due to such men in positions of great influence in the Bush/Cheney administration.
The CIA and 16 other intelligence agencies have corrected the analysis of Iran's nuclear research, and Mr. Wurmser and his poisonous ilk have the gall to label as the âguilty menâ Thomas Fingar, Kenneth Brill and Vann Van Diepen because they found the intellectual courage to reverse the Downing Street syndrome which wrapped or cherry picked the intelligence around a preconceived policy, instead of forming policy around a truthful reality.
This make them guilty? Of what exactly? Stopping WWIII for a false cassus belli? To me that makes them heros.
tarquinis, Seattle, USA
Can one of you US bashers here please explain to me why Iran needs to enrich plutonium if it's not for a weapon? All the hate mongering here is a disgrace. If you don't have an informed comment to make you would be better off not making a fool of yourself. As for the comment from the person in South Africa, I suggest you clear up your own act before criticising others.
Viv, London, UK
I feel the Iraq invasion was the biggest mistake America and Great Britain has made for a long time. To avoid more innocent civilians being slaughtered in the name of control for oil, I suggest we as global citizens, all over the world get together and put a stop to this madness. I really take offense that this insane murdering in the name of spreading democracy and freedom is obscenely hypocritical of both America and Great Britain. If the Intellegence gathering is to beleived without all the lies of John Bolton, Dyke Cheney, and the boys then they knew before they invaded Iraq and just lied to the world to get support for their murdering agenda.
sherry smith, nanaimo, Canada
It would be amusing - if the threat of war were not so dreadful - to sit and read the Iran-bashers in this column, rising up in fury against an independent, sovereign state, simply because it is theoretically a potential threat to Israel. Has nobody heard of the basic principles of Conservatism - democracy and the rule of law? Has the illegal invasion of Iraq, by Britain and America, abolished the UN Charter, and landed us all in cowboy-land?
Everyone knows that Israel has the bomb, but who's bothered about equality before the law? Well, I am. And a lot of people like me. And unless the UK Conservative Party starts supporting the rule of international law, they are going to lose rather a lot of votes to the Liberal Democrats at the next General Election.
Edmund Burke, Kingston upon Thames, England
To M Lester it wasn't outside the Iranian embassy where the policewoman was killed in 1984, but outside the Libyan embassy, wrong nation!!
DCH, Nottingham, UK
Why should we be worried by the amount of enriched uranium that Iran might pass on to any terrorist group. THeres enough of that stuff out there, that could find their way into terrorist hands for a dirty bomb, with the breakup of the Soviet Union
sam, Auckland,
I believe they have concocted this intelligence volte face in order to allow Ahmadinejad to back down without losing face and his re-election next year!!!!
mcgahon, dublin, Ireland
normally the americans have an opinion on this website wher e is the voice of america that is normally quite veciferous on this website
stephen, london, uk
None of this matters. Israel will once again have to take care of business. And I have no doubt they will hit the Iranian regime very hard when they least expect it.
Felix, Seattle, USA
For those worried about Iran using nuclear weapons... I'm only young but know enough history on the cold war etc. One thing I have learnt from history is that in this post WWII climate it will be an extremely unlikely for one country to "nuke" another country because it will not benefit them.
It is called Mutually Assured Destruction. Basically if Iran nuked Israel it will be the end of Iran and Israel, Stalemate.
I think the real issue here is Iran developing this technology and passing it on to terrorists. Let us think about this though if we prevent such things taking place now, it will only be temporary.
Nuclear technology and information on how to develop them will fall into the hands of terrorists one day, and we in the west are the people that developed this technology in the first place and in the years after WWII we encouraged globalization. Basically if what goes around does in fact one day come around there is nothing we can do about it.
Nasty, yes but some philosophers may argue that self destruction may actually be a paradoxical outcome of our evolutionary success!
Steven, Leeds, UK,
In my opinion Pat Roberts, among others, hits the nail on the head. The latest NIE is just not believable, but it's a convenient vehicle for this thoroughly odious Bush administration to pull back from the brink from a war that it cannot afford militarily, politically or financially - at the moment.. It will be left to the Euro left-wing's other whipping boys, Israel, to sort this one out if action is required in the next three-to-five years.
Dave, Washington DC, USA
The Bush Administration and the UK government will always be blind to the truth. They have an agenda and will not facts get in the way. God help us all
Ranj, Reading,
Tell it like it is; a major segment of the Bush Administration's foreign policy just cratered.
Andrew Milner, Yokohama, Japan
Oh, dear, the West and the USA should hang their heads in shame! Iran shown to be full of really nice guys, by a trio of lefty doves! What are we to do? Oh, if the West only weren't made of bad people, who doubt the intentions of such an upstanding government as that of Iran ...etc, etc.
Paul Francis, Brisbane, Australia
As a Jew, I am of course concerned for the safety of Israel's Jews, however much I disagree with that country's US-puppet mode of attempting to safeguard it through aggression. Even so, I cannot see why Iran might be expected to nuke it---to help the Palestinians? Some help, considering where Palestinians live. As a woman, I am not particularly happy over Iran's current regime; still, as a person, I can't see how Iran's women or anyone else could be helped by nuking it. (Pardon---as a US person, I'm stuck with having picked up that dehumanizing term "to nuke".) The NIE report seems more likely to be truthful than anything from the neocons/Far Right around Cheney Bush; best we take it as correct and avoid nuclear war (say, Iran gets nuked, Iran nukes somewhere, Pakistan goes radical Islam and nukes India, India nukes back, China nukes India (and US), US nukes etc.).
Paula, Parkdale, USA/Oregon
Let's look at some facts regarding Iran's current regime:
- they took an embassy-worth full of US diplomats hostage & held them for over a year. After Peanut's meddling with the US military, the rescue attempt failed miserably with loss of life. The US eventualy paid ransom-in-kind for the hostages' release
- Iranian embassy staff in London fired out of the window at demonstrators, thereby murdering a London bobby.
- In various speeches, the Iranian president has threatened Israel with extinction
- the Iranian president spoke/harangued at the UN and narrowly avoided the arrival of men in white coats
- The Iranians intercepted naive RN personnel this year taking hostages and flexing their muscles
- In 1987, the US and Iran fought a mini-war from which Iran came off worst
- Iran has been proved to be the paymaster behind Syria, Hizbollah, Hamas & has fomented troubles in Iraq
Conclusion: Iran really has it in for the West and aims to get even any way possible.
M.Lester, London, UK
Uranium is still being enriched by Iran and Iran has threatened to Nuke Israel, nothing has changed but that Bush now seeks accomodation with Iran. It is for Israel to now decide whether it wants to walk peacefully into the ovens like pre-WWII, as the west prefers, or whether it wishes to plunge the world into a nuclear war. Is this world really worth saving by sacrificing Jews again? Perhaps it is best if this world is finally put out of it's misery.
bernard ross, st. anns bay, jamaica
The U.S. administration have realized the country simply can't afford another war at this time. We are overextended and financially tapped-out. The Bush regime had to get itself out of a commitment it pursued unrelentingly for four years, now, and it did it by negating all the rhetoric it posted during that time.
The current "intelligence" doesn't change the nature of Iran or its weapons program. It merely provides an escape from having to deal with it... for the moment.
The Iranian question will be up to the Israelis now. Both Britain and the U.S. will sit back and watch events unfold. We will not be in the driver's seat when it happens, either.
James P, Sacramento, California
There is one thing for sure. If the Bush administration is right then war is on the cards, if they are wrong then we will be led to war.
So all you intellectually challenged out there, good bye!
Atleast with a few big bangs we could somewhat clean up the atmosphere and please the greenpeace pacifists, of course they wont be around to witness it but 5 billion carbon dioxide making machines will be gone.
The futures bright, the futures orange.
zeus dormer, malmo, sweden
So "intelligence" is only to be believed when it says what pacifists or anti-Americans want to hear ? But when it conveys an uncomfortable truth, it has to be dismissed?
In the US, all "intelligence" is politicised. To be honest, I'd rarher believe the Israelis on this one. Though doesn't make me feel good.
Pat Roberts, London,
The crying wolf by Bush and Blair has done serious damage to world security assessments and are comparable in their crass stupidity as Chamberlains 'piece of paper' from Hitler or America being caught with their pants down in the bombing of Pearl Harbour by Japan. Both those events were down to naivety of the UK government and the Isolationist policies of America but the lies and spin over Iraq and dis-information over Iran leaves the supposed leaders of the free world looking at best as fools, and at worst liars. When governments practice to deceive for political ends as Bush & Blair did, fiction will become fact in their eyes and they'll end up believing their own manufactured spin. The real damage is in the future as it will take at least two generations for this corrupt episode to be forgotten by the world electorate and then maybe some trust in governments will return.
Mike, Alicante, Spain
Sir,
Just like Iraq, the US-based Likudnik mouthpieces are trying to use our military muscle to take out their foes. The NIE, 16 US intelligence agencies, have learnt the lessons of political interference in regard to international credibility.
Our intelligence agencies were also sullied, what with "spin" in regard to the "Dodgy dossier," 45 minutes WMDs and African Yellow cake!
Iran may well be a long term threat, but let us hope this time we remain pragmatic, and that we are not dragged into Hollywood histrionics. The trite Likudnik motif of every tinpot Middle Eastern regime being the next Hitler is just emotive existentialist hyper-ventilation. Once bitten twice shy, let us not be the useful idiots once again a la Coloin Powell.
SC, London, United Kingdom
It takes no courage to speak against President Bush. Standing up to a militant Islamic regime, however, is a different matter.
Michael D Thorpe, Sydney, Australia
Let's stop beating about the Bush!
Bush is an idiot and most of the modern world shares this view, they are just too scared to open their mouths out of fear that maybe they will be the next target of the psychotic Bush administration!
I for one truly hope that some country out there will put the arrogant Americans in their place!
It is America and their idiotic uninformed views on the rest of the world that is the major threat to stabillity in the world and not the other way around.
If the Americans can't see this they deserve the punishment that is undeniably awaiting them in the years to come.
BUSH IS AN EMBARRESMENT TO ANY COUNTRY!
GET RID OF BUSH NOW!!!!!!!
Erno van Dyk, Johannesburg, South Africa
US Intelligence was wrong about WMD's in Iraq. Why believe the NIE now?
Scott, Phoenix, USA
There is no such thing as "accepted facts" when it comes to intelligence-gathering. If Iran is developing nuclear WMDs, show me the undisputable evidence.
The real issue is why certain elements in the US and UK are fanatically pushing for a war with Iran. Now that is beyond suspicious and should be the suspect of investigations.
Rich, Cambridge,
The administration doesn't want an uncontrolled war. They need something else for Dubya to have on his resume for when he leaves office, assuming he isn't successful at assuming the dictatorial powers he clearly covets when his legal term ends. A WWIII-stopping invasion of Iran would prove the true merits of his presidency, despite the tanked economy, mind-numbingly moronic foreign policy, complete disregard for the Constitution and the legal rights of his countrymen, sickening pandering to both the neocons and the religious right, inept handling of crises at every turn, and dismal failure at meeting even lax environmental regulations. But if they finally invade the correct country, then maybe they can have something nice to say in the history books. But I doubt it.
Shamed American Expatriate, Newcastle, England
After the illegal war with Iraq who can now believe anything the Bush administration says.
George W Bush has been planning to go into Iran since he came into office. Iran is a oil country that is why he has spent endless hours with his propoganda about Iran to the world.
The biggest threat in our world today is George Bush and his administration they are the one's who will start world war 3 not Iran as they quote.
If Bush strikes Iran the Americans will have Russia and china to deal with 2 countries that are well armed and stand behind Iran.
I pray they get Bush out of office before his term ends he is a dangerous man with a dangerous mind.I believe the report that has been put out I do not believe the Bush administration so they may as well admit they were wrong as babble on with their nonsense trying to do a cover up of the knowledge now exposed by the NIE
heather , Oakville , Ontario Canada
This report seems more and more political as one learns its details and authorship,but it does require serious consideration,while we must appreciate that intelligence revealed has been nigh on usless both sides of the Atlantic in recent years.
When it is said Iran is developing nuclear weapons there is doubt and when we are told they are not, there is need for even greater sceptisism given the unqualified venal pronouncements that the leaders of the Iranian regime make and the determination of the Americans to isolate and provoke them.
Iran knows what it needs to do to defend itself and gain leadership of the region and this inolves at least preparing for the production of a bomb given that its surragates intend the destruction of Israel.
North Korea stands as an example of the benifitsof nuclear insurance and common sense says that Iran must still lay itself open to inspection because if this report changes anything it will not be Iranian intentions.
robert everitt, wolverhampton,
Who cares what the Intelligence says?
If Americans respected intelligence would they have elected Bush?
There were millions of reports showing that Iraq didnât have weapons but none of that mattered.
The truth does not matter!
All that matters is war, money, oil and elections.
If countries donât want to be invaded, there is only one thing they can do, obtain weapons to defend themselves and unite to form a larger country with a larger army to defend themselves.
A Cromwell, London,
Indeed, it does seem very disturbing that the neocons have been trying to dismiss the conclusions of the NIE report ever since its release. These people seem to not want to allow any intelligence to dissuade them in their desire to start what Colin Powell might call "a half hearted war for half baked reasons."
Hello, Mark Steyn and Barbara Amiel of Macleans magazine. No, I don't think that it is "time to bomb Iran" as your magazine recently asked on its cover.
Any other questions that might be of interest to your actual target audience which are Canadians, eh?
Robert Miller, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
Who are we kidding, the States wants war, and wont be happy until they've got it. You could have 10 reports claiming that Iran isn't a threat, but the media in the States will roll out the propaganda machine questioning the validity of the reports.
Leanne, Edmonton, Canada
Iranian peaceful nuclear energy program is not just about supplying energy to a country that is full of energy resources. Itâs about Iranian independence and their right to decide independently from the West. It's about their revolution 28 years ago to break free from Americaâs suppressive policies in the region and it's about their young although not perfect democracy.
Iran neither needs WMD to survive nor needs nuclear energy so bad as to isolate itself from the West. But Iran needs its independence and one way to become independent is to protect it's right to its peaceful nuclear energy at any cost. Whenever the West recognises Iranian complete independent and grant its right as an independent country then the Iranians will be more apt to mutually respect the West and it's ideology which would be in no contrast whit what Iran has in mind. The NIE report is a right step forward in recognition the Iranians right rather than giving in to some special interest group demands to hide the truth.
Fonz Hifi, Ottawa,
Overall, this presents a confusing picture. Iran could resume secretly building weapons at any time and we'd be none the wiser. Is the intelligence reliable enough?
Geoff Dodd, Perth, Australia
Iran wins. Bush loses.
Israelis and Americans living in coastal cities should be very very nervous. I for one will not be visiting such places after 2008.
Petras Vilson, Ottawa, Canada
Bush and Cheney have no credebility. Their justifications for invading and destroying Iraq has been proven to be patently false.
Bush wanted Saddam dead to please his father.
This war was the Bush's personal vendetta. There never was any justification for the misery visiting the Iraqis.
Bush has destroyed the goodwill the world had for the US. It will take years if not decades to repair the damage this man has caused.
The way I see it Bush and Cheney are true war criminals. They directly caused the death of hundreds of thousands people for no reason. Bush/Cheney are directly responsible for thousands of young American lives....all for nothing.
It is my sincere wish that these two "war criminals" be tried in The Hague for crimes agains humanity
Paul Degen, Saskatoon, Canada
The key âpacing elementâ about when Iran is going to get a nuclear weapon is the uranium enrichment issue and that hasnât changed,â This fact makes the NIE report totally foolish and irrelevant. The Iranian danger still exists and is very real.
Dave, Rutland,