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Conservatives in Iran celebrated winning a near-landslide victory in parliamentary elections, gaining an expected 70 per cent majority in the 290-seat assembly and retaining the control that they have held over parliament since 2004.
The win does not, however, herald a triumph for the hardline President Ahmadinejad. The conservatives are deeply split and the President's allies will now come head to head with his conservative critics, who some say have won an equal number of seats.
These “pragmatist” conservatives are led by Ali Larijani, the former nuclear negotiator, who fell out with President Ahmadinejad last year and who won 70 per cent of votes in the religious city of Qom.
These conservatives are critical of the President's confrontational approach over Iran's nuclear programme, his fiery rhetoric and the ailing economy. The parliamentary elections are regarded as a litmus test for Mr Ahmadinejad's popularity in the run-up to next year's presidential elections. The growing divide between the conservative factions means that the new parliament could cause trouble for the President.
“These conservative opponents are going to make life hard for Ahmadinejad. They could block government Bills and are in a better position now to grill Ahmadinejad's ministers over the disastrous performance of the economy,” a Tehran-based analyst said. But some commentators are also saying that the real winners are the reformists, who managed to win about 30 per cent of the seats despite having the odds stacked against them. More than a thousand candidates were disqualified, meaning that the reformist camp had to rely on candidates who were unknown or who had little political experience. Reformist candidates were often not allowed to hold public rallies and reformist newspapers have been closed down regularly.
The reformists, however, have had a shock result in Tehran, with only one of their candidates still in the running to gain one of the 30 seats allocated to the city. “While we expected these election results ... I don't believe these elections have been fair,” Saeed Leylaz, an analyst, said. “There's been a lot of cheating in these elections and we can see this from the results in Tehran. I don't believe the results of the Tehran ballots - how could the reformists not secure one safe seat in Tehran and manage it in the rest of the country?”
The official description of the turnout, of about 65 per cent, was a “glorious” show of national unity. Muhammad Hossein Moussapour, the Deputy Interior Minister, announced: “The Iranian people managed to deal a blow to [the] Americans.” Turnout figures for Tehran itself were low, at 40 per cent. One probable reason is voter apathy, with many citing disillusionment with the regime and the state of the economy. Inflation is at almost 18 per cent, although unofficial estimates put it at nearly 30per cent.
The real winner of these elections is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader. While the conservative camp may be divided, all are loyal to him. And while the Iranian parliament wields a certain amount of power, all legislation must be approved by the unelected Guardian Council - a body appointed by the Ayatollah.
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