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IRANIAN forces were involved in the recent battle for Basra, General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq, is expected to tell Congress this week.
Military and intelligence sources believe Iranians were operating at a tactical command level with the Shi’ite militias fighting Iraqi security forces; some were directing operations on the ground, they think.
Petraeus intends to use the evidence of Iranian involvement to argue against any reductions in US forces.
Dr Daniel Goure, a defence analyst at the Lexington Institute in Virginia, said: “There is no question that Petraeus will be tough on Iran. It is one thing to withdraw troops when there is purely sectarian fighting but it is another thing if it leaves the Iranians to move in.”
US defence chiefs are concerned that the troop surge has overstretched the military. Admiral Mike McMullen, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, warned that the army and marines were at risk of crossing an “invisible red line” if the burden on forces remained. He said deployments of 15 months had to be reduced to a year “as fast as possible”.
Petraeus is likely to announce that combat tours will be reduced from 15 months to 12 months.
The number of US troops in Iraq is set to fall from 160,000 to 140,000 by July, but Petraeus is expected to recommend an indefinite pause in further troop cuts.
Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shi’ite cleric, has called for 1m people to march on Baghdad on Wednesday – the fifth anniversary of the fall of the capital – when Petraeus and Ryan Crocker, the US ambassador to Iraq, will be briefing Congress.
A senior Iraqi official who met Petraeus last week said, “It will be difficult to show that the situation is improving.” Another Iraqi source described the US general as “furious” that al-Maliki moved against the militias into Basra without consultation and had to rely on US forces to bail him out.
Abu Ahmed, a senior military commander with the Awakening, the Sunni tribal movement cooperating with US forces, said progress was largely the result of al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army ceasefire.
“When the Mahdi Army decides to resume its activities, neither the American troops nor the Iraqi government will be able to stop it,” he said.
Additional reporting: Hala Jaber
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The "Surge" is only working in Anbar because the Sunni resistance is being by the Americans for domestic propaganda purposes. Remember it was these people who gained most from their fellow Sunni Saddam, fought the hardest against the occupation, and have the most to lose to the now dominant Shi'ites. How long is the money going to last?
As for the relationship between the Shi'ite-dominated government of IRAQ with Shi'ite IRAN, well that is extremely cosy. Is anybody listening to how the IRAQI government is not as excitable & prone to blaming the IRANIANS at every opportunity, but on the contrary is supporting the IRANIAN view rather than the US view? Who cares, the Iraqi government does not run Iraq, the US is the real government.
Jahan, Luton, England
Shall we pencil in War With Iran for 2012-15? This time use the United Nations and Win The Peace ie. have a plan and invest in the country and it's people.
Joe , Zanzibar,
The only way for the Brits and the U.S. to build a stable and secure Iraq is to work with the Iraqi Nationalists (= al-Sadr's followers & Sunnis resistants).
It is a myth to say that Iranians are working with al-Sadr.
Brits & Americans& Iranians are working to divide Iraq into three regions -- we will all fail if we don't change course!
Melody, Florida, U.S.A.
The attacks on the militias in the south have done a lot to bring the Kurds and Sunnis back into the fold. It is only a matter of time until the Shiite militias fall as long as we stay the course. The Brits and now Mailiki really mucked it up there but the US will go in and clean it up. It is the same as the cold war in the US. The left will carp and take the side of the totalitarians while the right takes care of business.
No one expects them to be grateful but it would be nice if they at least stayed out of the way for a change while the adults go about their business.
Scott, Knoxville, TN
"After five years in Iraq U.S. soldiers don't dare walk the streets unless in rolling fortresses. At the end of their missions they have to retreat into impregnable fortresses. The U.S. has lost the war in Iraq."
The above paragraph is indicative of the prevailing ignorance of whats going on in Iraq. Is it any wonder that so much of the public is against the war, after being fed on such propaganda?
Your talking points are 2 years old: please google "surge" and see if you can comprehend that its been about more than simply increasing the number of troops on the ground.
Fen, Gaithersburg, MD
Thank You JW, [CC, TX, US!]
My entire Family thanks you and Your Battle Buddies for your sacrifices and service. God Bless!
BTW, your analysis is just what is needed! We who have folks over there know that the MSM has lied through their teeth about the good progress and about the appreciation that most Iraqis now feel towards the coalition!
Sir please recognize how most Americans love and support you guys, and that it's just a small band of professional Libtards and Media who are are making all the Doom and Defeat Noises.
~:)
.
Rubin, Pacifica, Ca. USA
Mr. Miller claims the war is lost. And his proof is that the streets arent safe. Wow...........that's deep.
Is the sky falling too?
Mike, Dublin,
>>> Keeping a sustained troop presence in Iraq is "picking a fight" with Iran, in the same sense that keeping your door locked at night is "picking a fight" with a burglar.
I don't think that's an apt analogue, except if Iran is the one trying to keep its door locked and the burglar is you-know-who. From the sound of it, said somewhat deranged burglar has just killed the dogs then savagely beaten several tenants of the house next door (note that the tenants don't like each other all that much). Finally burglar has handed out some cash to the tenants against their promise to keep quiet for a couple of hours. It is now bizzaredly trying to set up a tent in the kitchen to control access to the fridge and is studying Iran's house through binoculars.
Mayhem ensues.
Jimmy, Luxembourg,
Dear Phillip
Please give me a call when you have read the history of post war Germany.
Zach, Atlanta, Ga
Yaaaaawwwwwnnnnn, IRAN, honest it was IRAN, they did it REALLY
jc, RRossendale,
JW's entry isn't even a veiled attempt at propoganda--it reeks of that patronizing, homogenized hack writing that only comes straight out of the mouth of PR and psyops writers, void of any sense of honesty or true personal experience. What a grand deception, as the reptiles feign consensus for yet another war of greed and utter stupidity. Judge them by the fruit they bear--the elite abhor your self-determination and they are an enemy to that which granted free will. From the broad stroked lies in the compromised halls of Congress to the wormlike infestation of government bloggers presenting mandate as personal opinion (once again, see the anonymous and yet 'proud' JW entry), this war embodies the sum of all prior evils--apparently, we have learned something from history after all...how to better destroy, conquer, murder, and most importantly, gain the approving nods as the masses stand witness. Stop talking about this war like we're doing something right.
John Caelan, Venice, CA
Keeping a sustained troop presence in Iraq is "picking a fight" with Iran, in the same sense that keeping your door locked at night is "picking a fight" with a burglar. Common sense dictates that Iran would take over Iraq if we left altogether, and neither us NOR the Iraq people want that.
Kendall, Denver, CO
I'm back over here for my fourth Army Reserve stint since 2004. What a difference a year makes. In late 2006 and early 2007, just after surge had been announced, many commentators and thinkers -- in uniform and out -- thought that Anbar was hopeless, a lost cause. Just google "Anbar Lost" to see what I mean. Nowadays, it has been weeks since we lost a soldier in Anbar. More incredibly Iraqi Army units, composed of Anbari Sunnis, have deployed to Basra to engage in the fighting, under PM Maliki's lead.
A year ago, the mere thought that the much-maligned PM would announce a major Iraqi-led offensive against fellow Shia would have been met with guffaws. Yet he announced it in late March this year, did not seek Coalition permission, and ordered 30,000 Iraqi Army and Police troops to deploy. More incredibly, they did deploy in good order, arriving in less than a week, with some units traveling hundreds of miles. And they fought. And they evacuated their own wounded using their own aircraft back to medical facilities.
Was the performance of the PM or the Iraqi forces up to our standards? Certainly not. Their pre-deployment planning was weak, as was their logistical support. As water and ammunition ran low, their ability and willingness to stay in sustained offensive small-unit combat wavered. The Iraqi units in Baghdad also fought against the Mahdi Army in supporting operations, exhibiting some of the same weaknesses.
To unbiased observers, this is significant progress. Critical to the Iraqi performance was the Coalition training teams in their midst (not all of them US), Coalition air support, and Coalition logistical re-supply. If you want to know what the future of the Coalition effort in Iraq might look like after al-Qaeda is defeated, this would come close.
Speaking of the Coalition, more than 30 nations still have boots on the ground here as official members of the Coalition, as part of the NATO training mission, or under UN authority. Unofficially, about 1000 Peruvians serve in a private security company that guards the perimeter of the US Embassy. Several hundred Ugandans working for another contractor also serve as guards at some Coalition bases. Another aspect of the coalition-of-the-willing that receives little mention are the nations that permit us to sustain our effort -- Ireland, Germany, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait -- even though they deploy no troops. Without access to airfields and ports in these countries, the global reach of the US would be much curtailed. After five years of war, this commitment still amazes.
JW, CC, TX, US
Do not pretend or claim to represent the will of the American people. Tyranny has been and always will be our enemy.
mike, Houston, tx
Somehow the Administration has to be told when you have lost a war. I was in the one we won. I was in the Philippines during WWII. After we defeated the Japanese we could walk among the Filipinos unarmed, perfectly safe. I was in the infantry division that occupied Tokyo at the end of the war. We soldiers could walk the streets, unarmed, perfectly safe even though air strikes had virtually leveled most of Tokyo. After five years in Iraq U.S. soldiers don't dare walk the streets unless in rolling fortresses. At the end of their missions they have to retreat into impregnable fortresses. The U.S. has lost the war in Iraq.
Philip S. Miller, Telluride, CO
I have a friend in Basra. He's been there all year. He is one of the only Americans there. Black Market Oil has been running that show for a long time. Basra Int'l has been attacked more than any other base in theater in that time. Last month they found a bomb making cell on base! The US has no one there longer than a couple days. The Brits don't leave the base even if attacked. If the US sends people there they shake in their boots the entire time. In December the Brits handed over security responsibilities to the Iraqi Army. The reality of that is the Black Market/al-Sadrâs Mahdi Army have run the place for a long time. al-Maliki went in there thinking he could do something about the black market oil and met with great resistance. Basrah is extremely strategic and all oil flows through to the Persian Gulf there. The only thing that seperates Iran and Iraq is a river in Basra. Its not conspiracy its a turning point. Pick a fight? You are in a fight. You're just not getting shot at.
Bill Monahan, Rochester, USA/NY
PERSIAN GULF OF TONKIN ?
- - - Another analyst went a step further, saying that this might be used as a pretext for a military strike against Iran. Let us hope not, but Bush and his string-puller Cheney are quite capable of it. Should that happen, General Petraeus would truly be "General Betray Us" as he was called in a political ad.
Arik Silverman, Milwaukee, USA
What are they (the US I mean) up to? It doesn't add up. There is something big brewing under the radar here. No further cuts, picking a fight with Iran while the army is strained to the limit and fraying - on the face of it it's absurd.
Either there is a plan to justify and get a large increase in the size of the military, or there is a plan to decrease the strain on the ground forces through some kind of massive increase in the use of explosives, or both.
Either way, we can anticipate some development that is profoundly contrary to the will of the American and Iraqi peoples and the consensus of the world community, and probably one that is contrary to international law.
Christopher Horton, Worcester, Massachusetts, USA