Jenny Booth
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Iran’s nuclear programme could be triggering a race to develop atomic weapons in the Middle East, a study warned today.
The report noted a recent surge of nuclear activity in countries in the region.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said that no fewer than 13 countries had drawn up or revived plans for civilian nuclear energy between February 2006 and January 2007.
All of Iran's neighbours in the Gulf, with the solitary exception of Iraq, have expressed interest in nuclear energy. While all the plans are for peaceful civilian purposes, the IISS said that their underlying motive seemed to be to counter-balance Iran by "laying the ground for a possible future security hedge" which could include nuclear weapons.
“This upsurge of interest is remarkable, given both the abundance of traditional energy sources in the region and the low standing to date of nuclear energy there,” said John Chipman, the chief executive of the London-based group.
“If Tehran’s nuclear programme is unchecked, there is reason for concern that it could in time prompt a regional cascade of proliferation among Iran’s neighbours.”
The IISS study assesses the nuclear activities of Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Algeria, Israel, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Yemen and Syria.
Israel is widely assumed to have a nuclear arsenal already, although it has never admitted to it.
Mr Chipman said that if Israel abandoned this long-held policy and confirmed that it had nuclear weapons, other countries in the region would feel under greater pressure to follow suit and acquire the weapons.
“A proliferation cascade would become more likely if Israel felt obliged to relinquish its long-standing doctrine of nuclear ’opacity’ ...as this would increase the pressure on Egypt and perhaps other Arab states to seek their own nuclear deterrents,” he said.
Iran’s refusal to stop enriching uranium, in defiance of UN sanctions, has fuelled western suspicions that it is covertly developing an atomic bomb.
The Islamic Republic insists that it wants only peaceful nuclear energy.
Washington has led efforts at the United Nations to rein in Iran’s efforts to master the nuclear fuel cycle, by imposing an escalating series of sanctions.
President Bush has refused to rule out military action against Iran as a last resort.
Mark Fitzpatrick, an IISS expert on non-proliferation and editor of the study, said: “We take it for granted that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon.”
He added that Iran could theoretically produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb by next year.
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Lim, Johor Bahru, Malaysia,
You've left one out:
Who is the only country in the world to have used wmd's?
Yes the U.S of A. ( hiroshima & nagasaki)
jayil, london, uk
There is no proof Israel has nuclear weopans, and when you live in a hostile and jihadist hood and you know 1000% self help is the only help, history proves that, then u hav to say stuff the outside world and do what is best for ISRAEL, it does not want foreign soldiers to come to its aid thank you
Yeshurun, London, uk
Lim, Johor Bahru, Malaysia
I rather have a country like the United States armed to teeth than say a country like China, land of your forefathers. Whatever its faults, the USA was and still is a benign power.
Subramaniam, Paris,
Who is armed to the teeth with nukes? USA
Who spends US$billions annual on defence budget? USA
Who develops anti missile missiles (shields)? USA
Who shot down a satellite without fuss? USA
Who can sell arms openly? USA
Who threatens others? USA
Threat to world peace? USA
Thank you,
Lim, Johor Bahru, Malaysia
The IISS study assesses the nuclear activities of Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Algeria, Israel, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Yemen and Syria.
All these states capable of nukes weapons?. Wow I must hv been sleeping. Wow!
Lim, Johor Bahru, Malaysia
This pure scaremongering. ALL the countruies in the Middle East, apart from Syria and Iran are allied to the U.S.A. Egypt not only depends on aid from the USA, but Mubarrak, a Putin type leader who doesn't belive in democracy is kept in power by the USA. So where is the actual threat ?
Hamad Lone, London, England
Imagine those middle eastern countries all owning some nukes. Yes these are all muslim countries and they probably sympathise with Osama whom the US labelled as a terrorist.
The world needs a rest and complete disarmament and no country allowed any. Maybe the US should start the ball rolling.
Lim, Johor Bahru, Malaysia
umm, is everyone forgetting the nuclear weapons in Israel?
It's this sort of hypocrisy and double standards that makes the west so hated.
Hank, DC, USA
Of all the countries of the Middle East only Israel must have nuclear weapons.The others will only kill themselves, with them. Then create war that can kill millions. Nuclear weapons are not Ali-Baba toys to play with.
Overall peace is the best weapon to have, all will sleep well after that.
L.A. ISUFI, Bergen County.N.J, United States
After Iran and NKorea, Pakistan is now planning to sell nuclear weapons technology to Bangladesh. This is happening under the name of energy. Bangladesh is highly unstable and ridden with jihadis controlling government and religious institutions. It is amazing to see west playing blind again.
Richard Harrison, Cardiff, UK
Don't you think that Israel may be triggering middle east nuclear proliferation in the middle east?
They are the only non-signatory of the NPT and are holders of one of the largest nuclear arsenals in the world.
If anyone has triggered nuclear proliferation in the middle east it is they.
rxr, crewe,
Nucler armed middle east means an end to all wars in that region, which is exactly what the war mongers dont want. Nuclear weapons are the best deterrent against an invasion. (poor Iraq/afghanistan) - "how are we going to access our oil under their sand" ? ? Pakistan and NKorea- safe from invasion.
jayil, london, uk