THE Syrian regime is now considered so isolated and weak that in some Washington circles it is likened to lowhanging fruit, ripe for picking.

Bashar Assad, the President, would probably recognise the feeling of dangling alone on a branch waiting for the fall. In just months one of the most feared regimes in the Middle East finds itself fighting for survival as it struggles to maintain its presence in Lebanon in the face of formidable odds.

Aligned against the Syrian Government is a coalition of the world’s powers, including America and Europe, leading Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and a growing number of Lebanese and Syrians who would not previously have dared to speak out against the regime in Damascus. While the drama is centred on ending Syria’s 29-year military occupation of Lebanon, the real struggle is in Damascus itself, where there are growing doubts about the future of one of the region ’s most durable regimes.

When President Assad addresses the Syrian parliament today, he faces an impossible task: he must satisfy his foreign detractors that he is serious about withdrawing from Lebanon, while assuring hardliners in his regime that he is not capitulating to American demands.

“I do not envy him,” said Nadim Shehadi, director of the Centre for Lebanese Studies, in Oxford. “It’s like walking a tightrope over a ravine with a fire at the bottom.” The simple answer would be to follow UN resolution 1559 and withdraw all 14,000 Syrian troops and a network of intelligence operations, but that option could be suicidal. “Lebanon is important to Syria like a hand is important to a person,” an Arab diplomat in Damascus said.

Syria relies heavily on Lebanon to boost its economy, to project its power and to satisfy a Syrian nationalist ideology that considers Lebanon to be part of a Greater Syria.

The network of corruption is extensive, from the Syrian soldier who takes a few Lebanese pounds to allow a lorry to pass a checkpoint to leading figures who use their influence to secure business contracts. There are thought to be as many as one million Syrian labourers in Lebanon, most of them engaged in menial activities. Economists estimate that they earn an average of $10 (£5.19) a day, almost all of which is repatriated to Syria providing an important boost to the cash-strapped economy. Were the Syrians to leave it would deal a heavy blow to many households.

Lebanon also serves as a means of applying pressure on Israel. Rather than battle the powerful Jewish state to recover its occupied land in the Golan Heights, Syria instead uses Lebanon’s Hezbollah fighters to launch attacks along Israel’s northern border. Withdrawal would strip them of that vital military tool. Joshua Landis, an American professor of Middle East studies who lives in Damascus, said that the Syrians view retaining influence in Lebanon as second only to the survival of the regime. And the two are closely linked.

If Syria capitulates on Lebanon the leadership, drawn largely from the country’s Allawite minority, could face popular protests at home, too. The authorities were given a taste of this last year when rioting at a football match between Kurdish and Arab teams triggered countrywide violence.

There are doubts whether Mr Assad, 39, who is a British-trained ophthalmologist, is up to the challenges ahead. He has none of the authority and cunning of his father, who ruled the one-party Baathist State unchallenged for three decades. It is unclear whether he is fully in control of the security services. They are mostly run by members of his clan, many of whom advocate a far more robust posture, such as the one adopted by Syria’s only remaining ally, Iran.

Worst of all he seems not to have a friend in the world at a time when the Bush Administration is intent on seeing his regime go the way of the Baathists in Iraq. Mr Assad will probably try to reduce Syria’s visible presence in Lebanon by withdrawing troops, while hoping to maintain de facto control through intelligence networks. At home he will try to prove that he has inherited the ruthless qualities that made his father such a powerful leader.

“They are already joking in Damascus that his address on Saturday will be his resignation speech,” a Syrian commentator said yesterday.

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