Ehud Olmert was flying back from negotiations in Egypt yesterday when news broke that the ceasefire between Israel and the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip had been violated after less than five days.

The embattled Israeli Prime Minister, who has sought to detract from his problems at home by starting a series of spectacular diplomatic initiatives, could now see his hold on power crumble swiftly.

Mr Olmert had hoped that his new opening to Syria, Lebanon and Hamas would stave off domestic threats to his leadership, as opposition parties tried to force him out of office. Yet 24 hours before the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, was set to vote on a critical Bill to dissolve itself, Mr Olmert’s six-month ceasefire deal with Hamas appeared in serious peril.

“It’s as though he can’t win. If he thought that making peace was going to save him, he learnt a serious lesson — that you need two people to make peace, and not one desperate man,” said one minister in Mr Olmert’s Government.

“I think his time is up; the break in the truce was the last straw. The Knesset will not give him another break.”

At least two rockets were fired into the Israeli border town of Sderot, injuring two people. “This is a blatant violation of the calm, and we will weigh options,” an aide quoted Mr Olmert as saying after the rockets struck.

The Egyptian-brokered truce, which took effect last Thursday, calls on Hamas to prevent cross-border fire from the Gaza Strip, which it seized by force a year ago. Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the attack, calling it a “first response” to Israel’s killing overnight of a local commander of the militant group and another Palestinian, who was affiliated with Hamas, in the West Bank city of Nablus.

The truce deal, under which Israel agreed to halt its operations in the Gaza Strip and to ease its economic blockade of the impoverished enclave, does not apply to the West Bank.

Sami Abu Zuhri, a Hamas official, responded to the attacks by urging “all Palestinian factions to abide by the agreement”. He said: “Hamas is keen to maintain the deal.”

An Islamic Jihad member, speaking from Gaza, confirmed that one of the militants killed by Israel in the West Bank was Tareq Abu Ghali, 24, a senior member of the group. “We had to retaliate for the righteous blood spilt by the [Israelis],” he said. Hamas and Islamic Jihad had pressed for the West Bank to be included in the ceasefire, but Israel had reserved the right to act in that area, which is controlled by Mahmoud Abbas, the moderate President of the Palestinian Authority.

Mr Olmert’s downfall could begin as early as today, when the Knesset votes to dissolve itself, ushering in new elections. Last night his two main coalition partners, Labour and Shas, were poised to side with the opposition to disband the Knesset. The defection of those two parties would leave Mr Olmert without a ruling majority, and therefore unable to continue as Prime Minister.

Mr Olmert’s aides will spend this morning attempting to sway Labour and Shas ministers before the afternoon vote. The opposition needs at least two thirds of the 120 MPs to vote in favour of the Bill for it to pass.

Officials close to Mr Olmert said that preparations were being made for his “transition from power”. In several scenarios described by political insiders, the Government could be dealt a lethal blow by today’s Bill, or by a no-confidence vote for Monday. He could also announce his resignation.

Most political analysts agree that new elections are likely to be held in September or November.

Trouble at the top

March 2006 Israel’s top government watchdog clears Ehud Olmert of wrongdoing in the sale of a Jerusalem flat, but questions his purchase in 2005 of one in Tel Aviv. Dropped this year

January 2007 Investigation into claim that he influenced the sale of a state-owned bank to favour a friend. Dropped in November

September Criminal investigation into the purchase of a home in Jerusalem. Denies wrongdoing

October Investigation started into allegations that he favoured personal associates for positions and funding while he was the Industry, Trade and Labour Minister. Denies wrongdoing

May 2008 Admits to taking cash from US businessman as legitimate campaign donations

Source: Times archives

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